Impact Analysis: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

March 4, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Tim Heaney

For left-handed pitching phenom David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays, it was a matter of when, not if he was going to make the majors. After getting drafted with the top overall selection in the 2007 first-year player draft, he signed a six-year, $8.5 million contract, and he received the second richest signing bonus in amateur draft history.

Well, Price lived up to the hype during the Rays' run to the World Series last season. His spark in the ALCS helped the Rays into the championship; he won Game 2 and recorded the final four outs of Game 7. He continued his stellar play by recording a save for the Rays in Game 2 of the World Series, the only game Tampa won in the series.

Despite his obvious success as a reliever, Price is looking to enter this season in the Rays rotation, taking the spot of departed starter Edwin Jackson. He was recently ranked the No. 2 prospect by Baseball America, and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. With all his expected success, the questions for fantasy owners: Will he live up to the hype, and just how successful will he be?

The young phenom

Price was a junior at Vanderbilt University when he entered the draft. In his final year, he went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 194 strikeouts in only 133 1/3 innings. He had a strikeout rate of 13.10 K/9. Basically, Price was almost untouchable his last year of college. This fact, combined with his glowing scouting report entering the draft, convinced the Rays to take him first overall.

The phenom boasts a 95 mph fastball which has a natural tail away from righties, along with a devastating slider that he throws in the mid- to high 80s. Both of his pitches are considered "plus-plus" pitches, and he has a slurve that he can throw also but hasn't yet tested out in the bigs.

The biggest weakness in his pitching arsenal is his changeup, which he occasionally tips to batters by dropping his arm angle (which is normally a slightly awkward looking over the top arm angle). In college and the minors you can get away a little with tipping pitches, but not so much in the majors.

His quick ascension

The lefty rocketed through the minors like only top prospects can, with his longest stay at any one location being nine starts. During the process, he completely dominated both Single-A and Double-A during his time at those levels. At Single-A, Price went 4-0 in 6 starts while tallying a 1.82 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He had 37 strikeouts and only seven walks in 34 2/3 frames.

After being inevitably called up to Double-A, Price again dominated the minor league competition. Price went 7-0 in nine Double-A starts with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Slightly concerning are the seven homers he served up at this level, but even included they didn't negatively effect his numbers too harshly. Though he was soundly overpowering the competition, his K/9 went down while his BB/9 ratio went up.

He was promoted to Triple-A for the remainder of the Durham Bulls' season. Price made only four starts, registering a 1-1 record. His ERA was at 4.50 while his WHIP jumped up to 1.72. These jumps are worrisome, but given the small sample size it could just have been an anomaly. The high ERA was a result of Price being pulled from games early, and allowing two or three runs before exiting. Overall, he didn't have any blowups, only short outings. However, in the level change again Price saw a lowering of his K/9 to 8.5, and a rise in his BB/9 to 4.5.

Price experienced success out of the bullpen and during a spot start at the major league level after a September call-up. In 14 innings, Price had 12 strikeouts and a 1.93 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP.

Despite being a late call-up and thus not eligible for the playoff roster, the Rays utilized a loophole, getting Price onto the roster as an injury replacement. It worked out well for the Rays, as Price had an outstanding playoff performance. Price was 1-0, with a 1.59 ERA and eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings of work in the ALCS and World Series. This performance created a buzz around the young pitcher, and now he has to go prove his worth in 2009.

The Price is wrong?

Fantasy owners are already salivating over Price and his enormous potential. Price has the overpowering raw stuff that usually results in some great strikeout numbers, but he also has polish because of his long stay at Vanderbilt. Despite still having rookie status, Price seems as though he already feels comfortable at the major league level, as evidenced by his masterful work in the playoffs.

However, his playoff pitching will be sitting in the minds of owners come draft day, and certain owners may reach up in the draft to try and get Price before others can. He has a lot of potential, but owners need to be realistic.

While he may not perform poorly, he still will be facing major league caliber players who will eventually get more tape on him and figure him out.

The likely scenario has Price at the back end of the Rays rotation, racking up strikeouts with his 95 mph heater and posting a sub-3.50 ERA. He also gets a boost from the Rays offense, which should help support him in games in which he performs poorly.

Still, there's a chance the Rays turn to young pitcher Jeff Niemann, who is out of minor league options, as their No. 5 if they want to give Price more time. Price will almost undoubtedly be with the team for some time in 2009, but roster regulations may come into play as they often do.

Two other pitchers competing for the fifth spot, Mitch Talbot and Jason Hammel, don't possess anything special, but the same caveat applies, especially since Hammel is also out of farm options.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Price, who could turn out to be a stud this season, is going in drafts as though he is already a proven veteran. He is being drafted as a No. 3 pitcher, on average, when realistically Price would be safer as a weak No. 4, at best.

Owners wanting to draft Price at what he is currently worth may not have that luxury, as in most drafts there is an owner that reaches and selects him prematurely. He may be worth it, but like any rookie, Price carries a significant amount of risk.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)