Impact Analysis: Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers

March 5, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

If any of the contending clubs need a starter to step up this season, it is the Milwaukee Brewers with left-handed pitcher Manny Parra.

With the loss of long-time ace Ben Sheets (elbow) to injury and free agency, with up-and-comer Yovani Gallardo on the mend, and with C.C. Sabathia joining forces with the powerhouse "Bankees", the Crew's starting five look far less daunting than a season prior. The bats are still very much terrifying to opponents, but the Brewers would have to drink a lot of Old Milwaukee's Best to believe they can go deep in the playoffs without quality arms.

Rookie season

The 26-year-old Parra started his rookie campaign 1-2 but caught fire, winning eight straight games, even boasting a 3.65 ERA as of July 8. However, consecutive losses and a peculiar dugout skirmish with teammate Prince Fielder seemed to taint the joy ride. His close-to-perfect season soon paralleled a base jump off of Mount Everest, fully eclipsing the more-preferred "roller coaster" status.

Life in the clouds was good for the young southpaw. In six minor league seasons he went 38-17 with a 3.06 ERA and posted a pretty solid 1.28 WHIP. In 2007, between Double-A Huntsville and Triple-A Nashville, he put up his best year yet going 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA and sparkled to the tune of a 1.11 WHIP and 106 strikeouts to 33 walks in only 106 2/3 frames. He earned a cup of coffee with Milwaukee, punching out 26 in 26 1/3 innings.

Coming off a strong season, Parra earned the fifth spot in the rotation, and many believed he had turned a corner. When he went 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA in June, many were reassured. His July was an echo as he posted a 3.90 ERA but allowed a miniscule .328 opponents' slugging percentage.

Of course, nothing went right after that, and Parra became a mere shell of himself finishing the year, going 0-2 with a 7.79 ERA and serving up six homers in 17 1/3 innings in September. He was later demoted and relegated to mop-up duty. The Brewers' choice cut now appeared dejected and spoiled.

Report card

Overall Parra was not overly impressive in 2008 from a fantasy perspective. His 4.39 ERA and 1.54 WHIP may have easily crippled your staff in two categories and he didn't really help in any of the others.

His 4.07 walk rate left himself in the trenches eating grenades, leaving him with only 166 innings pitched despite making 29 starts and appearing in 32 games. To boot, he threw an impressive 17 wild pitches and gave up nearly one homer every nine innings to add to a .279 opponent's batting average.

The season was not a total loss, however, and there are reasons to believe he will bounce back and improve.

The pitcher has always had upside. He has a low-90s fastball and a devastating diving splitter. The combination of a 7.97 strikeout rate and a 51.6 percent groundball percentage suggest he is showing dominant marks at a young age.

These numbers also put into question his high homer rate and his disturbingly high .337 BABIP, largely a luck-based stat where he ranked in the bottom 10 among starting pitchers. 

Parra won't have to fight for a spot in the rotation this season, and he will have lots of offensive support with nearly an entire lineup full of 20-homer potential. By walking fewer batters Parra puts himself in line to log more innings, lower his WHIP and ERA, and become a fantasy stud. Even if he comes down to his minor league walk rate of 2.45 per nine innings, which is not inconceivable, he could double his value.

Fantasy baseball outlook

As a near lock for double-digit wins, Parra is going to be someone to watch as a No. 5 fantasy starter. He will slip under the radar of many owners who saw the way he burned out near the tail end of last season. Don't be as jaded. Even in a deep pitching pool he's a quality arm that will have a better season in 2009.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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