Impact Analysis: Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers

March 6, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

Manny, Manny, Manny, can't you see, sometimes your words just hypnotize me.... That appeared to be ESPN's M.O. this offseason as they diligently reported on every breaking Ramirez item. Well, the drama was finally put to rest (for now) as the Los Angeles Dodgers re-signed the mercurial slugger to a two-year, $45 million deal Tuesday, March 3.

Unless you've been living under a rock for the last six months, this move should come as no surprise. The Dodgers were really the only ones in the discussion for Ramirez, and it appeared LA was the only place he seriously wanted to play.

His re-signing raises some serious questions, however. Who gets bumped out? Where does manager Joe Torre slot him in the lineup? What is his fantasy value? And, perhaps most importantly, where can he get a good burrito in town?

All joking aside, the penultimate question is the one we are really concerned about. At his best, Manny is, arguably, one of the greatest right-handed hitters in the league and has entered into the discussion as one of the best in history. Don't stop there, though - he brings with him serious concerns of motivation and injuries.

That's just Manny being Manny

Count me among the few that are sick of hearing "that's just Manny being Manny." The guy can flat-out hit, period, even if he lives in his own world. He has at least a .292 average, 102 RBIs and 20 homers in 10 of his last 11 seasons. His seasonal averages during that period: .319 average, 123 RBIs and 38 homers.

He sits 20th on the career RBIs list and could easily move into the top three before he retires. On the all-time home run list, he is 17th (527). Needless to say, he is a surefire Hall of Famer.

Age doesn't appear to be a huge concern with him, either. He will turn 37 at the end of May, but advancing years haven't kept him from ranking third for the last three years in on-base percentage, 10th in isolated power and fourth in on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS).

Motivation will always be a question with Manny after the way his time in Boston ended. However, prior to his much-criticized exit, Ramirez was hitting .347 with four homers and 16 RBIs in 75 July at-bats. Sure, he might have quit on the team by feigning an injury, but when he played, he was still dangerous at the plate.

And his last three-month stretch for the Dodgers was one for the ages. Ramirez hit .396 with 17 dingers, 53 RBIs and 36 runs in 187 at-bats during the two regular season months in Los Angeles. He upped that output with a .520 average, four homers and 10 RBIs in 25 postseason at-bats.

What does he do so well? He has a great batting eye, good patience at the plate and an almost effortless swing.

Will motivation be a problem in Los Angeles? Well, it's impossible to predict the future ... but, he looks to be happy, the Dodgers are treating him well (did Boston always do this?), manager Joe Torre tends to favor veterans, and Ramirez could be playing for a new contract (he can opt out after this year if he chooses). His agent, Scott Boras, stated Ramirez wasn't comfortable living in Boston; he clearly hasn't had any of those problems so far on the West Coast.

Injuries have been a problem for the slugger. He topped 500 at-bats last year between Boston and Los Angeles, but before that, he had missed at least 19 games in both seasons. He missed significant chunks of time earlier this decade while in Boston, too.

Where does he fit?

In the field, outfielder Juan Pierre is the one to lose out with Manny's return. Pierre had been slated to start in left field if the Dodgers didn't sign Ramirez. However, Pierre has been given permission to seek a trade. The other two outfield spots will be occupied by youngsters Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

Manny should have a sizable impact on the Dodgers lineup:

• Shortstop Rafael Furcal is slated to lead off. He has a career .352 on-base percentage, though his declining speed (prior to last year) and lengthy injury history are both worries.
• The second spot should be occupied by second baseman Orlando Hudson. He has a career on-base percentage of .346, though this has been .354 or higher in each of the last three seasons.
• Manager Joe Torre hasn't made up his mind on the third hitter - he is debating between first baseman James Loney or outfielder Andre Ethier. Both are entering or close to entering their prime and have been trending upward in most of the roto categories.
• Finally we get to where Ramirez is expected to hit. He has hit out of this spot for most of his career.
• After Manny, the Dodgers could go with Loney or Ethier, whoever doesn't hit third, or third baseman Casey Blake.

With the kind of on-base production ahead of him, Ramirez should see plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. In addition, he'll provide a boost to all the other hitters surrounding him, offering them more protection in the lineup as well as the confidence that having one of the best right-handed hitters in the lineup has.

Perhaps Kemp said it best when he opined, "What Manny does is take a lot of the pressure off. When you have a guy hitting .396, you know if you don't get the big hit, Manny probably will." For a young lineup, this should keep them loose and freewheeling (something Manny hasn't really had a problem if you've seen him track down flyballs or act as the cut off man).

Fantasy baseball outlook

Ramirez is a tough beast to project. However, it should be noted, aside from injuries, he generally has been a consistent outfielder.

You likely won't be able to get him where he was falling last week. When the original two-year, $45 million deal was rejected, his value might have taken a dive, mainly because it might create bad blood between him and the Dodgers. Bad blood can lead to unhappiness and when Manny is unhappy, he doesn't provide that stability you should be looking for in the first couple of rounds.

A massive smile on his face greeted viewers at Manny's press conference Thursday, March 5, which should be all you need to know Ramirez appears happy. To put it bluntly, this is a good thing.

All the Dodgers in the lineup receive a bump in value. Furcal and Hudson should be counted on for a few more runs. Whoever hits third should see a few more pitches to hit, thus a bump in overall offensive numbers. The batters after Ramirez should also have a few more opportunities to drive in runs as well.

At this point, if you're willing to take the risk, view Ramirez as an iffy No. 1 outfielder that could be drafted in the middle of the second round of most mixed drafts. He's safer as a No. 2, but you probably won't be able to acquire him as one most of the time.

Don't overvalue him based off his Los Angeles numbers last year - he likely won't keep up that historic pace. But a happy Manny is a dangerous Manny, and a dangerous Manny should enter into the MVP discussion, both in the National League and fantasy leagues.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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