Impact Analysis: Seattle Mariners closer situation

March 22, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

Even while losing 101 games last season, the Seattle Mariners bullpen registered a respectable 36 saves. The leader with 15 saves was reliever J.J. Putz, who was traded in the offseason to the New York Mets. Another 10 saves belonged to pitcher Brandon Morrow (forearm), who went on to start five games at the end of the season.

The remaining 11 saves were recorded by eight different pitchers. This season, the Mariners bullpen is one of uncertainly and potential volatility. Bargain-minded fantasy owners looking for cheap saves should take notice. There are many, many candidates, and not one truly stands out.

Lowe

Mark Lowe, 25, has shown flashes of dominance and has the best makeup for a closer. He throws a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider with a circle changeup mixed in. Lowe can compile strikeouts but has struggled with walks.

Trying to come back from elbow surgery in 2006, Lowe was limited to a combined 19 games in '06 and 2007 but was healthy last season - appearing in 57 games and recording his lone career save. Lowe has also been learning how to pitch through Type 2 diabetes.

Thus far in Spring Training, Lowe has not looked sharp. In five appearances, he has allowed five runs on 11 hits. Still, M's management reportedly isn't concerned because power pitchers typically straggle behind when it comes to recapturing control.

Aardsma

Flame-throwing reliever David Aardsma is with his fifth organization in four seasons. Aardsma can bring it with a scorching fastball and a hard slider; he has also been implementing a splitter. For two straight seasons Aardsma has averaged better than a strikeout per inning but has not been able to find his control.

Although the 27-year-old has no career saves, the former first-round pick can earn chances if he can put it all together; his stuff has impressed the coaching staff in camp.

Walker

New addition Tyler Walker began the spring with a quad strain but seems healthy now. The 32-year-old has 34 career saves, most coming in 2005 with the San Francisco Giants. Last season, he was used primarily as a right-handed specialist.

Walker is not a dominant pitcher by any means with low-90's heat. While he may have experience in the closer role (most recently in 2006), Walker appears to be on the outside looking in at the moment.

Batista

Last season, veteran pitcher Miguel Batista lost 14 games while switching between starter and reliever, doing neither very well. Opponents hit a whopping .295 against Batista, and he walked 6.18 batters per nine innings while continuing to be underwhelming in the strikeouts column. Back in 2005, Batista, now 38, saved 31 games with the Toronto Blue Jays but blew eight chances. Batista has not looked good in Spring Training but remains in the discussion to close games.

Corcoran

In his last three minor league seasons, reliever Roy Corcoran posted 46 saves. Despite control issues, the 28-year-old was effective in spurts for the big club last season, making several multi-inning appearances and notching three saves late in the season. However, his rubber arm and groundball style are best suited for middle relief.

The latest arrival

The M's recently added another patron to the party by signing reliever Chad Cordero (shoulder), who missed nearly all of 2008 due to a dead arm. Cordero, who has 128 career MLB saves and was closer for the Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos organization since 2004, turned down better contract offers for the chance to shut the door in Seattle.

He picked the right opportunity to achieve that goal, but he's only about 75 to 80 percent healthy in his recovery. He's unlikely to win the job out of camp, but he's a definite in-season target if he earns opportunities. 

The long shots

Rookie reliever Joshua Fields has a chance to be called up later in the season and become a factor in the late innings. He was a first-round selection in the 2008 draft after a dominating college season. In 37 1/3 innings at the University of Georgia, Fields struck out 63 batters while limiting them to a .133 batting average. He converted all 18 of his save opportunities, which led NCAA pitchers.

To make matters even more interesting, the aforementioned Morrow has been hampered with a stiff right forearm and is in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation. There is an outside chance that Morrow could return to bullpen, where he was the most effective last season.

Two other no-names have become candidates, as well. Shawn Kelley, who hasn't pitched above Double-A, drew words of praise for his stuff from manager Don Wakamatsu, but his spring ERA has ballooned to 11.12 in 5 2/3 frames. He has struck out seven in that time, though.

Veteran Randy Messenger also is earning accolades in an impressive run (1.13 ERA through eight spring innings). He has saved a trio of spring contests, giving his case more bulk. The problem is that Messenger's 4.90 career ERA in the majors doesn't scream reliability.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The Mariners bullpen situation is a mess. The closer position is still up for grabs, but if you have to dip into this pool, target Lowe first - the best potential among the crew.

The others should be left for the waiver wire in deep AL-only leagues unless the team names a stopper by the time your draft comes around.

Cordero offers the most upside given his record as an above-average fantasy closer when healthy; he compares to the Atlanta Braves' Mike Gonzalez last year as a great speculative add in the late rounds of deep mixed or AL-only games.

Stay mindful of Morrow, but someone is likely to overdraft him based on his potential as a starter, even with his injury.

Keep tabs on Fields; a quick start in the minor leagues coupled with a shaky bullpen could make the team press the issue. We'd still advise not to give up anything of value for him if he comes up, though.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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