Impact Analysis: Arizona Diamondbacks closer situation

March 28, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Ilan Mochari

Why is the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen worth discussing? For one thing, the Diamondbacks had 62 save opportunities in 2008 (tied for 12th), converting only 39 of them. Relief pitcher Brandon Lyon, who notched 26 of the 39 saves, signed as a free agent with the Detroit Tigers in January. Whoever closes games for the Diamondbacks in 2009 will have the chance to vulture not only Lyon's saves, but also all the saves that the D-backs were unable to convert.

In 2009, the save opportunities should be plentiful again, with starting pitchers Brandon Webb (22-7 last year) and Dan Haren (16-8) anchoring the rotation. The most likely beneficiary is relief pitcher Chad Qualls, 30, who converted all seven of his save chances after wresting the job from the faltering Lyon in September.

Middle relievers, sleeper closers

With the loss of Lyon and with Qualls moving into the closer role, the Diamondbacks bullpen also has voids to fill in the seventh and eighth innings. Moreover, the team lost relief pitcher Juan Cruz, who signed as a free agent with the Kansas City Royals in February. Cruz went 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 57 appearances in 2008. His dominance rate (12.37 K/9) led all National League relief pitchers.

Replacing the promoted (Qualls) and the departed (Cruz, Lyon) are returning relief pitchers Jon Rauch, 30, and Tony Pena, 27. Rauch notched 17 saves as the Washington Nationals' closer in the first half of 2008. While his high flyball rate translated poorly to Arizona's Chase Field (6.66 ERA after the break), he is a candidate to earn saves if Qualls struggles as a full-time closer.

Pena, for his part, has performed effectively in middle relief for two seasons now. He packs a mid-90s fastball and his command (3.06 K/BB) in 2008 was first-rate. He belongs in any conversation about sleeper closers, given the questions surrounding Qualls (never closed for a full season) and Rauch (dreadful post-break 2008).

One bullpen, three aces?

To scan relief pitcher stats from 2008 is to notice how effective Pena, Qualls and Rauch were on the whole, even though all three had ups and downs. They are neighbors alphabetically (P-Q-R), and they reside alongside each other atop some key categories too.

In walks per nine innings among all relief pitchers, Rauch ranked 11th (2.01 BB/9), Pena placed 12th (2.11) and Qualls was 14th (2.20). The P-Q-R trio also ranked highly in first-strike percentage: Qualls was third (68.0) among all relievers, Rauch 12th (65.1) and Pena tied for 18th (63.6). Then there's strikeout-to-walk ratio: Rauch ranked eighth (4.13) among relievers, Qualls 11th (3.94) and Pena 26th (3.06).

In fantasy terms, these numbers suggest Qualls is no ordinary first-time closer; his command is exquisite. Likewise, Pena and Rauch are a cut above the typical middle relievers listed as sleeper closers only by virtue of owning eighth-inning roles. Rather, Pena and Rauch are terrific pitchers in their own right. They enter the game and throw strikes - in spades.

Qualms with Qualls?

Gifted as Pena and Rauch are, their fantasy value in 2009 depends on whether Qualls holds down the closer job. That is an open question, since Qualls has never closed for a full season before.

Of course, Qualls' 1.21 post-break ERA and seven-for-seven saves in September - a month in which he posted a 0.00 ERA and 0.46 WHIP - certainly make a compelling case that he's equal to the task. Moreover, Qualls' 2.53 groundball-to-flyball ratio is a wonderful fit for teeny Chase Field.

Also, Qualls' hard sinker and slider continue to baffle left-handed batters, even though Qualls himself throws right-handed. Lefties batted .220 against Qualls in 2008 while righties batted .229. In fact, throughout Qualls' career, he has been more effective against left-handed batters.

So what are Qualls' flaws? He blew eight saves prior to September and was outright wretched in May (7.84 ERA) and July (6.23). He was awful when he was away from Chase Field: In 34 road games in 2008, Qualls notched a 4.72 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Those numbers could have been worse, too: Qualls' 8.5 percent home run-to-flyball ratio is unsustainably low, not to mention below his career mark (13.2).

Still, there is plenty of evidence that Qualls' 2008 performance was legit. His dominance rate (8.67 K/9) and ERA (2.81) reached career bests, improving for the third straight season despite his struggles in May and July.

Furthermore, Qualls' overall resume is sparkling. Since 2005, he ranks third among all relievers with 245 innings pitched and 237 appearances. He is also the first reliever to post at least 20 holds for four straight seasons.

Rauch: a tale of two seasons

Calamitous is one word you could use to describe Rauch's time in Arizona. He lost six games with a 1.54 WHIP and 6.56 ERA in 26 games for the D-Backs after the break. By contrast, his pre-break ERA (2.98) and WHIP (1.01) in Washington were sparkling.

One reason for the drastic difference: Rauch's career 0.66 groundball-to-flyball ratio didn't translate well to Chase Field. In addition, Rauch was fighting through a forearm injury in August and September. There were also off-the-field problems: During the All-Star break, Rauch reportedly learned his wife had postpartum osteoporosis, which confined her to a wheelchair for two months. "I just fell apart mentally," Rauch recently told The Arizona Republic.

Can Rauch bounce back? He certainly has the stuff to do so. His command of four pitches - fastball, curveball, slider and changup - is top-notch. He throws first-pitch strikes and surrenders few walks. His mid-90s fastball seems especially daunting since Rauch delivers it from his height of 6-foot-11.

Also, it's easy to forget how successful Rauch was when he first arrived in Arizona. He did not allow a run in nine of his first 10 appearances with the D-Backs, amassing five holds and a 1.93 ERA. Despite the failures that came later, Rauch still ended up with a higher dominance rate in Arizona (8.49) than in Washington (8.19).

What also bodes well for Rauch is his previous experience overcoming rough patches, especially as they relate to his flyball problem. In 2006, Rauch posted a 10.5 home run-to-flyball ratio. That ratio dropped to 5.2 in 2007 after Rauch relied less on his fastball (thrown 67.9 percent of the time in 2006, compared to 60.4 percent in 2007) and more on his slider (22.8 to 27.0), changeup (5.9 to 8.0) and curveball (3.3 to 4.7).

In 2008, Rauch's home run-to-flyball ratio ballooned again, back up to 11.6, his career worst as a reliever. What also ballooned was Rauch's reliance on his curveball (10.6) at the expense of his slider (25.4) and changeup (4.1). Whether his increased curveball usage is largely to blame for his problems is tough to determine; however, what's encouraging for fantasy owners is to simply note that Rauch has corrected previous slumps by tweaking his pitch mixture.

In short, Rauch is not someone fantasy owners should write off because of a lousy second half.

Where are the whiffs, Tony?

Though Pena can overpower batters with his 95 mph heater, he does not rack up strikeouts. His 6.44 K/9 in 2008 is well within his career dominance rates (6.64 in 2007, 6.16 in 2006). Pena does not throw a curveball, mixing his heat mostly with an 87 mph slider.

Pena is only 27, and there is indisputable upside in his rare combination of command and velocity. Still, there's no getting around his flat-out ineffectiveness against lefties (.467 and .446 slugging in 2007 and 2008). What's mildly disturbing, too, is the rise in Pena's ERA (3.27 to 4.33) and WHIP (1.10 to 1.33) from 2007 to 2008.

While his .329 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is partly to blame for those increases, it's not entirely culpable: Pena's line-drive rate rose from 11.6 to 20.1, an indication that opposing batters are getting good wood on all the hard strikes he throws. Pena brings the heat, but he could use a little movement. 

Pena's 1.46 groundball-to-flyball ratio works well at Chase Field. Though his BABIP and line-drive rates were high, he kept his flyballs in the park: His home run-per-nine (0.62) and home run-to-flyball rates (6.6) were career bests. Pena has also posted a lower road ERA than home ERA in each of his three seasons, indicating that his success is not simply limited to a flyball-friendly stadium.

Fantasy baseball outlook

If ever a career middle reliever seemed ready to transition into a closer, Qualls seems like the guy. Even if he doesn't cut it as a closer, he'll have fantasy value as a setup man in NL-only and deep mixed leagues. 

Here's the easy part: By all counts, Qualls will begin the season as the Diamondbacks closer. His lack of experience in the role is causing him to slip in many drafts. For that reason, it may be possible to draft him as a No. 3 fantasy closer. That would be ideal, since Qualls could easily rack up 30 saves with superb peripherals. In other words, by drafting Qualls you might get a No. 2 closer at a No. 3 value.

Rauch should be left for the free-agent pool in mixed drafts but is worth speculating on in NL-only formats. He remains a sleeper closer with a dynamite skill set and belongs on all fantasy radars.

Pena should be drafted in deep mixed leagues that value setup men for his strikeout ability. However, remember that Pena's strikeout potential has not yet translated into actual whiffs. In short, Pena remains a high-upside sleeper for the closer job if Qualls can't deliver.

However, Pena's lack of strikeouts makes him almost useless to fantasy owners in a setup role. By mid-May, it may turn out that Rauch is the better setup man for sneaking strikeouts onto your squad.

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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