Impact Analysis: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

December 16, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

Amidst other issues resulting in the New York Yankees' failure to reach the postseason for the first time in 13 seasons, one large problem was the declining production of shortstop Derek Jeter. For seasons in which he has played in at least 148 games, the nine-time All-Star posted career lows in runs, hits, RBIs, stolen bases and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). How will he fare in 2009?

Inside the numbers

Since his first full regular season in 1996, the illustrious Jeter has averaged a .316 batting average, 112 runs, 194 hits, 77 RBIs, 16 home runs, 21 stolen bases and an OPS of .846 per season. While his batting average and hits have stayed relatively consistent with his lifetime average, the last two seasons Jeter has averaged just 95 runs, 71 RBIs, 12 home runs, 13 stolen bases and an OPS of .806.

The above comparison pinpoints Jeter's main problem: a decrease in power and run production. One explanation for this decrease has been Jeter's desire to improve his defensive play in recent years, which has always been a moot point amongst baseball critics.

Jeter stated before last season that he normally eats everything in sight prior to spring training in order to gain weight so his body can endure the long season. Prior to the 2008 season, however, he showed up to spring training trim and agile by eating right and spending the offseason working on his speed, agility and lateral movement in order to improve his defensive quickness and mobility. This offseason workout regimen seems to have paid off as Jeter's errors decreased and fielding percentage increased compared to his 2007 numbers.

Unfortunately, his slimmer figure also contributed to slimmer power numbers. His percentage of line drives hit has dropped in each of his last three seasons, and his 17.9 percent rate last season was a career low. His groundball percentage increased, and his flyball rate decreased.

Jeter's offensive struggles suggest that his age (he turns 35 next June) may be catching up to him. It is not unusual for an aging player to suffer from a decrease in physical prowess, as Jeter has the past two seasons. Along with his power numbers, his stolen bases have decreased substantially from 34 in 2006 to 15 in 2007 and only 11 in 2008.

Some positives

Jeter has long benefited from big bats surrounding him. Although the likely departures of first baseman Jason Giambi and outfielder Bobby Abreu in free agency would strip the Yanks of a big part of their 2008 power, Jeter will be batting second in a lineup that contains third baseman Alex Rodriguez, second baseman Robinson Cano, designated hitter Hideki Matsui, and outfielders Xavier Nady and Johnny Damon. If Jeter can hit near his .316 average, then he should be able to improve in the runs and RBIs categories.

Also, the Yankees ranked eighth in the majors last year with 118 stolen bases, meaning they still enjoy being aggressive on the basepaths. Even if they acquire a replacement for power this season, the Yanks should continue this small ball approach for 2009, meaning Jeter would have a chance to improve on his recent totals.

All-Star turnaround

Historically, Jeter starts off slow and really starts swinging the bat after the All-Star break, as was the case this past year. Jeter's average was .284 prior to the All-Star break, which was uncharacteristically low, even for the late bloomer. Following the All-Star break Jeter batted .324, raising his average to .300 for the season with torrid August (.345) and September (.342) performances. Unfortunately, it was too late to salvage a season in which he batted 16 points below his lifetime average.

Fantasy baseball outlook

It is wishful thinking to imagine Jeter returning to his prime form. While he is still a threat at the plate, his decline in power and speed over the past two seasons hurts his fantasy value tremendously. Jeter has been able to keep off of the disabled list for the majority of his career, though, which is good news for a 34-year-old shortstop.

Overall, he is a great natural hitter whose lifetime .316 batting average and .387 on-base percentage mean he should be able to produce a stat line similar to his 2007 season. Still, despite the Yanks' penchant for base stealing, don't expect Jeter's base stealing numbers to change dramatically.

Considering the shallow top-level talent pool at shortstop and Jeter's name recognition, some casual fantasy managers may be tempted to draft Jeter way too early. He typically has been selected in the seventh round this offseason, which is a fitting place for him. Auction participants should be conservative with their bids.

However, his draft position highly depends on a manager's needs. If you're already set on power hitting or pitching - or have a few late-round sleepers who you think can fill those needs - you may want to take a chance on Jeter; however, it is important to evaluate your position before considering him given his declining performance. He doesn't hit enough home runs or steal enough bases to complement his high average; he doesn't warrant a pick that should be devoted to a better all-around fantasy contributor.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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