Impact Analysis: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim

December 16, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Wesley Collier
Edited by Herija C. Green and Tim Heaney

Owners of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim outfielder Vladimir Guerrero have gotten used to having a pure stud on their roster over the past decade. However, last season, Guerrero did not make the All-Star team for the first time since 2003 and just the second time in 10 years. He also saw a slight drop in almost all statistical categories, finishing with 27 home runs, 91 RBIs and 85 runs. He did get a boost when the Angels acquired first baseman Mark Teixeira from the Atlanta Braves in late July, posting a .330-12-41 line after the All-Star break. 

Guerrero, who will turn 33 before the start of next season, is starting to show his age after years of playing with an all out style. This past season he struggled with a knee injury off and on throughout much of the season, appearing in 143 games. After the season Guerrero had surgery on his left knee to repair the damage. This is a concern for upcoming seasons.

The Angels exercised their option on Guerrero to keep him in town and will pay him $15.5 million in the upcoming season. Guerrero will be a free agent after 2009, making this a contract year.

Table: Vladimir Guerrero statistics (2006-2008)

Season	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
2006	.329	33	116	92	15
2007	.324	27	125	89	2
2008	.303	27	91	85	5

Guerrero posted career lows in batting average, runs and RBIs for a season in which he had at least 400 at-bats. He also tied a career low in home runs under that same criterion. Those low numbers were a surprise for Guerrero owners, though he had posted huge numbers for a decade and was bound to have his numbers decrease.

His power has been declining for the past several years, but he remains a .300-plus hitter. However, there is cause for concern after he registered his highest strikeout total since 2001. One of Guerrero's strengths was that despite being a power hitter he has always been able to keep his strikeouts low and avoid lengthy slumps. If his strikeouts continue to increase, his on-base percentage could drop, which could also affect his runs.

Still, Guerrero played extremely well after the Angels welcomed Teixeira in late July. Following that addition, Guerrero batted .345 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs in 45 games. Teixeira gave the Angels a viable No. 3 hitter, allowed Guerrero to move into the cleanup spot - he hit just .240 in 229 at-bats in the No. 3 slot - and gave him someone to drive in. Even with just a taste of that tandem can do for Anaheim, it makes next season look even scarier for opposing pitchers if Teixeira re-signs.

What to expect

As noted, Guerrero turns 33 before the upcoming season while also coming back from offseason knee surgery. Both of which are cause for concern for fantasy owners. Guerrero is a tough player, usually playing through injuries for the sake of the team. However, owners now have to wonder when these injuries start to take a heavier affect his body and his play. Knee surgeries take time to heal, but it is expected that Guerrero will be ready for the start of spring training.

The team's ability to retain Teixeira, who is a free agent, could certainly have an effect on Guerrero's value. The Angels are making a real push to re-sign him, reportedly offering him an eight-year contract in the neighborhood of $160 million. Guerrero should benefit greatly from having Teixeira in the lineup, given his success at the end of last year. It remains uncertain if Teixeira will sign, but the Angels, and Guerrero, could certainly use him.

The numbers have been dropping for Guerrero for the past couple of years now, and this year could be no different. Teixeira's presence could greatly enhance Guerrero's stats for the upcoming year. Even without him, Guerrero should remain a .300 hitter, though his power numbers may continue coming down.

Fantasy baseball outlook

While fantasy owners have long expected Guerrero to be put up first- or second-round numbers, this year could be different. His advancing age and mounting injuries create more risk than in years past, though if healthy he should still put up numbers to be drafted in the early rounds. Overall, Guerrero will still be an asset to your team as a great No. 2 outfielder for your fantasy rosters.

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Wesley Collier
Wesley has contributed to KFFL since 2008.

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