Impact Analysis: Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies

December 23, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Herija C. Green

Shortly after winning the 2008 World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies began to seek out a new everyday left fielder to replace free-agent outfielder Pat Burrell, a former No. 1 overall draft pick. His replacement arrived Dec. 12, in the form of free-agent outfielder Raul Ibanez. Formerly of the Seattle Mariners, Ibanez was inked to a three-year, $31.5 million contract.

The move reunites Ibanez with Phillies front office advisor Pat Gillick, who was the Mariners' general manager for the final season of Ibanez's first stint with the team. Gillick assembled the Phillies' championship club from last season in the same capacity but has since retired from that post. Ibanez is said to have been a favorite of Gillick, and the Phillies were first on his wish list of teams to sign with, making the move a natural pairing.

Ibanez is coming off a successful 2008 season in which he played in all 162 games for the second time in his career. He has played in at least 149 games in five of the last six seasons. Durability has helped Ibanez become a consistent run producer; he is one of only five outfielders to have driven in at least 100 runs in each of the last three seasons. Ibanez has seen an increase in doubles every year since 2004, including a career-high 43 two-baggers last season, a good indicator that power is still in the veteran's bat; he turns 37 next June.

The new digs

The move from Safeco Field to Citizens Bank Park comes with several potential benefits. First, Ibanez will be stationed at hitter-friendly home field for the first time in his career. Also, he projects to hit fifth in a vastly improved lineup than the ones he has been accustomed to, batting behind second baseman Chase Utley (hip) - if he makes it back in time for opening day - and first baseman Ryan Howard. A season ago, the Phillies led the National League in home runs, ranked second in RBIs and tied for second in runs scored, which is obviously a major upgrade over the abysmal Mariners.

Table: Raul Ibanez's hitting statistics (2006-2008)

Year	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	SLG	AVG
2006	159	626	103	181	33	123	2	.516	.289
2007	149	573	80	167	21	105	0	.480	.291
2008	162	635	85	186	23	110	2	.479	.293

Were Ibanez to hit fifth, the heart of the Phillies lineup would then consist of three consecutive left-handed hitters. However, last season, Ibanez hit southpaw pitching 17 points higher (.305) than righties (.288). Over his career, Ibanez is a .268 lifetime hitter against lefties and .286 overall. Over last three seasons, the trio are hitting a combined .269 against left-handing pitching. It will be interesting to see how manager Charlie Manuel draws up the lineup card on days they face strong left-handed starters and how he approaches left-handed relievers in late-inning situations.

Table: Ibanez's season splits (2006-2008)

Year	R	HR	RBI	AVG
2006 (first half)	55	20	70	.285
2006 (second half)	48	13	53	.294
2007 (first half)	41	6	53	.275
2007 (second half)	39	15	52	.309
2008 (first half)	41	11	55	.273
2008 (second half)	44	12	55	.321

On defense, Ibanez offers little, if any, improvement over the aforementioned Burrell. Ibanez has 11 errors the last two seasons, compared to Burrell's dozen. Last season, Manuel would at times insert versatile utilityman Eric Bruntlett into left field as a defensive replacement. Utley is coming off hip surgery so Bruntlett may see more time at second base early in the season. Over the long haul, though, its possible Ibanez may see some early exits just like his predecessor.

Fantasy baseball outlook

As we look to this season, fantasy owners can expect a streaky batting average that historically surges in the second half. A slight increase in power numbers, where Ibanez has his most fantasy significance, is possible with the new home field but don't look for a big jump given where he is in his career. A consistent contributor year after year, Ibanez is a serviceable No. 3 fantasy outfielder or an excellent No. 4 option in the event he slips that low on draft day.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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