Impact Analysis: Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

December 26, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Herija C. Green

How will the NL Central champion Chicago Cubs fill in the gap left by the departure of All-Star closer Kerry Wood (Cleveland Indians)? They are expected to turn to 26-year-old All-Star reliever Carlos Marmol. Marmol has proven to be a force on the mound, finishing the 2008 season with a 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings. Marmol also managed to record seven saves in nine opportunities.

As an insurance policy to Marmol, the Cubs acquired reliever Kevin Gregg from the Florida Marlins. While the Cubs would like Marmol to be their long-term closer, if he falters, the duties will most likely fall into Gregg's lap. The 30-year-old was Florida's closer for most of the last two seasons but fell out of favor late in 2008.

Marmol's body of work

While Marmol is considered the prohibitive favorite, Piniella has stated that both he and Gregg will be competing for the closer's role in spring training. However, barring a horrendous spring, Marmol will likely begin the season as the closer.

Table: Carlos Marmol's pitching statistics, 2007 and 2008

Season	W	L	SV	IP	K	BB	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2007	5	1	1	69.1	96	35	1.43	1.10	.169
2008	2	4	7	87.1	114	41	2.68	0.93	.135

Among this lustrous stat line, Marmol's strikeouts shine brightest. In 2007 he posted an incredible 96 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings pitched, good for 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). In 2008, he posted an 11.8 K/9, which was a slight decrease from 2007 but impressive nonetheless.

Another impressive feat was Marmol's ability to keep opposing hitters off base. He limited hitters to a .135 batting average last season, a 34-point decrease from 2007. He also lowered his walks per nine innings (BB/9) from 4.5 in 2007 to 4.2 in 2008.

One negative that stands out is Marmol's increase in ERA. Marmol, who is almost exclusively a fastball/slider pitcher, started the season off on fire. However, once June hit, it seemed the young flamethrower lost some of his juice, posting a June ERA and WHIP of 7.36 and 1.27, respectively. He had allowed only seven earned runs through May but gave up nine in June alone. He also saw a dramatic increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts. The All-Star break allowed Marmol some much needed rest, which paid off as he pitched brilliantly in the second half of the season.

Another thorn in his side was pitching away from Wrigley Field. At home, he had a 1.61 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and held opponents to a .117 batting average. On the road, those numbers ballooned to 4.14, 1.14 and .160, respectively.

The key to Marmol's pitching success is to prevent shoulder fatigue. Manager Lou Piniella did a fine job of keeping Marmol rested last year after a busy May in which he pitched a season-high 18 2/3 innings, which was followed by his June struggles. However, with full-time closing duties, he may be needed more frequently, which brings into question his long-term stamina. In order to keep his arm well-rested, Piniella may have to turn to another reliever to close a game if Marmol has pitched for two or three days straight.

Closing time

When Wood went on the disabled list last season, Marmol assumed the closing duties and performed admirably, converting three saves in three opportunities; but will he be able to handle the stressful job on a daily basis?

In case he stumbles, the Cubs acquired Gregg. In two seasons with the Marlins, Gregg recorded 61 saves in 74 opportunities while posting a combined 3.48 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Despite a respectable stat line, Gregg could hardly be marked as a lights out closer. Still, Gregg is certainly more of a veteran than Marmol, or any other closing option in the Cubs' bullpen. Relief pitcher Jeff Samardzija, who showed flashes of brilliance during his first season, is also an option, but he is not likely to push for the closer's role, instead likely serving as the seventh-inning option . .

Fantasy baseball outlook

Marmol has great potential to be an effective closer on a squad that has the personnel and skills to score ample runs and have lots of ninth-inning leads. His pitches have great velocity and movement, and his penchant for striking out hitters rather than pitching to contact is a huge plus. With his scorching fastball and nasty slider, he has the ability to become one of the more dominant closers of 2008.

Being as this would be his first year as the everyday closer, Marmol may have stretches in which he struggles. Therefore, it would be advisable to draft a more reliable, proven closer as your No. 1 option with Marmol as a strong No. 2.

On draft day, Marmol should be taken in the middle rounds with Gregg a handcuff selection in the later rounds. Marmol's inexperience means Piniella could turn to his veteran option at any signs of significant trouble, so it's best to be prepared. Gregg would also be an advisable late-round draft pick if you missed out on closers in the earlier rounds.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)