Impact Analysis: Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves

December 15, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Tim Heaney

The Atlanta Braves acquired starting pitcher Javier Vazquez via trade from the Chicago White Sox Dec. 4 as part of a six-player deal. The 32-year-old Vazquez finished the 2008 season with a record of 12-16, an ERA of 4.67 and WHIP of 1.32 - along with 200 strikeouts in 208 1/3 innings of work. The right-hander will be asked to provide some stability to a Braves pitching staff that was decimated by injuries last season and is fraught with question marks entering the 2009 campaign.

From a fantasy standpoint, potential owners wonder what effect Vazquez's move back to the National League will have on his fantasy value, which took a significant hit thanks to his sub-par 2008 campaign. Let's have a look at the situation and see if we can divine what might be reasonable to expect from Vazquez in his new 2009 digs.

The good news

Vazquez is one of the modern embodiments of the "innings eater": He has tossed at least 198 innings in each of the past nine seasons and averaged about 6 1/3 innings per start in 2008. During his career Vazquez has been one of baseball's better strikeout artists, averaging eight strikeouts per nine innings pitched during his career. He has solid command of his pitches as well, averaging only 2.4 walks per nine innings during his major league tenure.

The Braves hope Vazquez can recapture the form he displayed in 2007, when he finished 15-8 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 213 strikeouts for the White Sox. Vazquez has posted double-digit win totals in nine consecutive seasons, and the Braves obviously believe that he can help anchor a pitching staff that figures to be without ace Tim Hudson (elbow) for at least half the 2009 season.

A move back to the National League figures to do Vazquez some good; he enjoyed perhaps his best season while a member of the Montreal Expos in 2001. Vazquez's power pitching game and veteran savvy could be a winning combination against the typically weaker offenses in the National League with the absence of opposing designated hitters. Home runs have always been his bane, but Vazquez trimmed his dinger rate considerably last season - despite pitching half his games in homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

The bad news

Vazquez may be only 32 years old, but there is undoubtedly a lot of mileage on his tires. Year after year of 200-plus innings of work will inevitably begin to break down a pitcher's body, and there is some concern that Vazquez may be entering that downward phase of his career. His 2008 ERA was well above his career mark of 4.32 and represented the fourth time in the past five seasons that his ERA has ballooned to 4.42 or higher. Perhaps most disturbing were the abysmal 6.25 ERA Vazquez posted in September and the pummeling he took in the ALDS at the hands - and bats - of the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Even at his best, Vazquez has always struggled with inconsistency, and last season was emblematic of that tendency: He surrendered five or more earned runs in 10 of his 33 starts but yielded two or fewer earned runs in 13 outings. There seemed to be no discernible pattern to help predict when "Good Javy" or "Bad Javy" would show up. A dominant start or two would be bracketed by a couple of outright stinkers, leaving Vazquez's fantasy owners to face a start-or-sit decision literally every time he took the hill. 

Intangibles and other factors

Turner Field, long known as a pitchers' park, actually played slightly hitter-friendly in 2008 - likely in part due to the struggles of the Braves' patchwork pitching staff. We don't see this trend continuing, and the Braves' home field will certainly be more pitcher-friendly than Vazquez's old digs at U.S. Cellular Field. During his career, Vazquez has pitched quite well in Atlanta, forging a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and fanning 60 batters in 70 1/3 career innings.

Home runs have long been Vazquez's prime nemesis, and the 25 bombs he allowed last season were tied for the eighth most in the American League. Now that he's no longer pitching in a homer-friendly yard, perhaps Vazquez will at last overcome his propensity for surrendering the long ball. If he can do so, Vazquez should see a resultant decline in both his ERA and WHIP for 2009.

Vazquez is under contract for both the 2009 and 2010 seasons, so he'll have no additional "walk year" motivation to put up big numbers this season. While Vazquez should benefit from facing the NL's weaker offenses, the Braves are in a rebuilding mode and likely won't provide the run support Vazquez received from the ChiSox's potent offense.

Fantasy baseball outlook

We have already touched on Vazquez's inconsistent nature, but one thing he'll always give your fantasy team is strikeouts - and plenty of them. He has fanned at least 184 batters in each of the past four seasons, and there's no reason to believe that more of the same won't be coming in 2009. The rest of the equation, though, is rather muddled, and those question marks will test fantasy owners as they evaluate Vazquez's placement on 2009 fantasy draft boards.

It would not be wise to count on Vazquez to provide help with your team's ERA; he has consistently posted an ERA of at least four in four of the past five seasons, excluding his anomalous 2007 campaign. If he can lower his gopher ball ratio, Vazquez could make at least some modest progress with his ERA, but that is indeed a very large "if."

In terms of WHIP, Vazquez's strong command and plus stuff generally keeps this number at a serviceable level, but he'll need to improve on his 2008 showing in order to be a fantasy factor there. Don't look for anything close to his 1.14 WHIP of 2007, but a return to something near the 1.25 he posted for Arizona back in 2005 is certainly within reason.

Vazquez's ability to pitch deep into the game should ensure that he's involved in plenty of decisions, but what's the chance many of those will be W's? The Braves put a decent number of runs on the scoreboard in 2008, but last year's bullpen crew allowed plenty of crooked numbers of its own; they haven't yet done anything significant to improve their 'pen, either. Vazquez has won 15 or more games only twice in his big league career, and there's no reason to believe that a breakout is coming in 2009.

Vazquez's return to the National League bodes well for his future, but it may also inflate his draft-day value. Beware the hype - Vazquez is a bona fide major league starting pitcher with a strong strikeout pitch, but he's far from being a top-flight fantasy option. Consider Vazquez a No. 3 fantasy starting pitcher this season, but his return to the NL presents the opportunity for him to occasionally pitch at the level of a low-end No. 2, especially in NL-only setups. Don't overbid on Vazquez in hopes of him returning to his 2007 form, though, as that season was probably the exception rather than the rule.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)