Impact Analysis: Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers

December 26, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Tim Heaney

As the 2008 fantasy season spiraled to a conclusion, many contending owners were scouring waiver wires and other managers' rosters for that perfect spark plug to ignite their offense. Many sought out the services of Texas Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz.

Coming into the 2008 season, Cruz had some experience in the bigs, albeit very limited. In 2005 with the Milwaukee Brewers, he logged five at-bats in eight games while posting a .200 batting average with no home runs and no RBIs.

In 2006 with the Rangers, he registered 130 at-bats in 41 games while sporting a .223 average with six dingers, 22 RBIs, 15 runs scored and a .645 on-base percentage-plus-slugging percentage (OPS).

His first real taste of Major League Baseball action was in 2007 with Texas. He notched 307 at-bats in 96 games while hitting .235 with nine long balls, 34 RBIs, 35 runs scored and a .671 OPS. He was sent back to Texas' Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma to start the 2008 season.

When Cruz was called up in late August of the 2008 campaign, he was coming fresh off a Triple-A season that saw him hit .342 with 37 home runs, 99 RBIs, 93 runs scored, 24 stolen bases and a nasty 1.124 OPS in 383 at-bats.

For the Rangers in 2008, he finally delivered a bit on the insurmountable hype that trailed his career for years by mashing .330 with seven long balls, 26 RBIs, 19 runs scored and a 1.030 OPS in 115 at-bats (31 games). He led the Rangers in RBIs in the period following his major league arrival.

His keen eye was also impressive. Cruz struck out a mere 87 times and posted a sick .429 on-base percentage in his 383 Oklahoma at-bats in 2008, he struck out 28 times with a .421 OBP in his 115 2008 at-bats with the Rangers.

Maiden voyage

The 2009 campaign will likely be Cruz's first full season in the show. If the Rangers don't make any offensive additions, he's slated to bat cleanup behind Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton in what will be one of the league's most potent lineups. Cruz will be heavily counted on to deliver since Texas opted not to retain the services of embattled outfielder Milton Bradley.

Cruz has the potential to be an MLB star. His quick swing generates a plethora of power that is capable of clearing any MLB fence within seconds. He also possesses a powerful outfield arm as well as decent speed that he must learn to harness wisely in stolen base situations.

Although his OBP hovers around .400, Cruz has the propensity to hack at a lot of breaking stuff. He made strides in hitting off-speed and breaking pitches during his minor league campaign last season, but he's easily fooled by creative hurlers and can get overly aggressive in certain situations when a fastball isn't thrown on a rope over the dish.

He's more of a power hitter than a contact bat, something that must be worked on for success as a major league cleanup hitter with ample RBI opportunities. He struck out once in about every four at-bats both at Oklahoma and with the Rangers last year. He's just a .251 career MLB hitter in 557 at-bats even when his strong 2008 performance is included; if his batting eye doesn't mature, that could be a reflective batting average for a full-season performance.

Still, at 28 years old (29 this July) he falls within the typical range of a hitter's prime power years, so he may be able to continue his development in that department.

Cruz will have a fantastic supporting cast of characters as he enters the 2009 season in shortstop Michael Young, second baseman Ian Kinsler, outfielder Josh Hamilton, first baseman Hank Blalock and third baseman Chris Davis. Having Cruz play a full slate of home games in Rangers Ballpark is also likely to spike his offensive numbers a tad.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Cruz is an upside No. 4 fantasy outfielder but is much safer as a No. 5. However, you probably won't be able to get him as a No. 5 unless you fill your outfield spots up early. Counting on him for power is safer than counting on him for any other fantasy-relevant statistics. If you find yourself scrounging for a last-minute power bat that has a boat load of sleeper potential, don't hesitate to pull the trigger on Cruz as he could be this year's version of Josh Hamilton or Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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