Impact Analysis: Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets

December 12, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Herija C. Green

Their playoff hopes dashed in part because of a lackluster bullpen the last two seasons, the New York Mets helped to shore up that aspect of their club by signing star closer Francisco Rodriguez (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) Tuesday, Dec. 9. The three-year, $37 million deal puts K-Rod on par with Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Brad Lidge among the highest-paid closers in the game, though both trail New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera on the salary scale.

Following a 2008 campaign in which he saved a record-shattering 62 games, Rodriguez was expected to command record-shattering dollars on the free-agent market this winter. However, the crowded market for closers and the doldrums of the national economy both conspired to keep K-Rod's free-agent value in check.

Evaluating his game

There is little doubt that Rodriguez's history justifies his new contract. At the age of 26 (27 in January), K-Rod is already 36th on the all-time saves list with 208, his career ratio of 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings is the third best in history, and his career batting average against is an eye-popping .189. Additionally, Rodriguez has the temperament and attitude of an elite closer. Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia called him "mentally tough" and believes that he's well suited to the high-pressure environment in New York.

That being said, there are some red flags in Rodriguez's game and history that should give fantasy owners pause. To begin with, his violent delivery puts a great deal of stress on his slender 6-foot, 195-pound frame and probably affects his command negatively (career 3.95 walks per nine innings). Also, despite his youth, Rodriguez has been one of the most heavily used relievers in baseball since his debut in 2002 (408 career appearances, 451 2/3 innings pitched - not counting the postseason). In fact, he was thrust into a relief role early in his career because of injury troubles with his elbow and shoulder, and there are concerns that the heavy workloads could catch up to him in the future.

Rodriguez's average fastball velocity has fallen from 94.8 mph in 2006 to 91.9 last season, and he has started featuring his changeup more often. Not surprisingly, his strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio has fallen in every season since 2004 (13.18 K/9 in 2004, 10.14 in 2008). Finally, a 2.24 ERA and career-worst 1.29 WHIP in 2008 were good numbers, but not exactly indicative of a closer at the top of his game (especially his WHIP). All told, there are several reasons to downgrade Rodriguez's fantasy value entering 2009.

Switching coasts and leagues

Rodriguez leaves the Angels, a team that won 100 games, provided a league-leading 89 save opportunities and maintained a 3.67 bullpen ERA in 2008, for a Mets franchise that won 89 games, provided 72 save opportunities (third most) and had a 4.25 bullpen ERA. In general, the Mets scored more runs and won games by bigger margins than the Angels did last year, and that was with one of the league's worst bullpens.

The Mets' recent acquisition of former Seattle Mariners closer J.J. Putz provides K-Rod with a first-rate setup man in the same mold as Angels reliever Scot Shields. However, if the Mets' powerful lineup scores runs in 2009 as it did in 2008 and the Mets pitching also improves, the possibility exists that K-Rod will have fewer save opportunities in 2009. For comparison, Mets closer Billy Wagner averaged 37 saves (with five blown saves each year) during his first two seasons in the Big Apple - Rodriguez hasn't saved fewer than 40 games in a season since becoming a full-time closer.

The other new addition

Somewhat overshadowed by the signing of K-Rod is the addition of Putz, who before suffering through an injury-plagued 2008 campaign had recorded 76 saves in his previous two seasons. Despite battling an elbow injury last year, Putz still routinely touched the high 90s with his heat. If the former Mariner can stay healthy this could become the top one-two punch in all of baseball.

Putz also gives the Mets another experienced option in the ninth inning, which should allow them to not overwork Rodriguez during the regular season. He'll likely vulture a few saves, though Putz's fantasy value takes an undeniable nosedive.

Fantasy baseball outlook

K-Rod is an elite closer, but he is not one for whom fantasy owners should overreach on draft day. Don't get hung up on the fact Rodriguez broke the single-season save record in 2008 and keep in mind the evidence of his statistical decline. It's a virtual certainty he'll get a fair number of chances closing for the Mets, but you simply cannot count on him approaching 62 saves again.

Given the numbers, one could make a case that Rivera, Lidge, Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon and Minnesota Twins pitcher Joe Nathan are all better selections than Rodriguez in 2009. However, K-Rod certainly remains among the top stoppers.

Top-flight closers are generally picked anywhere from the third to eighth round in most drafts. If you find yourself drafting in the fifth or sixth round and K-Rod is still available, it might be a good idea to snag him. It would be ill-advised to take him any earlier than that.

As for Putz, he would make a solid handcuff to Rodriguez in the late rounds or could be a standalone middle reliever given his strong career numbers, along with the possibility of him snagging a few saves and ample strikeouts for a setup man.

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