Impact Analysis: Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins

November 21, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Tim Heaney

Lost amidst the hoopla over the Chicago Cubs acquiring reliever Kevin Gregg from the Florida Marlins is the new closer situation down in Miami. While Gregg figures to be in the running for closing opportunities up in Chicago, his departure opens up the door for closer Matt Lindstrom to continue in the ninth-inning role for the Marlins.

The 28-year-old Lindstrom began being groomed for the role during September of last season, notching five saves during the month. He likely will enter the 2009 season as the Marlins closer, barring an unexpected change of events.

Shutting the door on Gregg

Gregg's absence late last year due to patellar tendonitis in his left knee, it only hindered his tenuous hold on the closer job. He had already blown nine save chances through Aug. 29, including back-to-back botched opportunities to close out August in which he gave up eight earned runs in two innings.

Gregg's ailing knee was partially to blame for his struggles, but the door was opened for Lindstrom. In 10 1/3 innings (11 appearances) in September, Lindstrom posted a 1.74 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and a .206 opponents' batting average while also converting all five of his save opportunities. It was solid enough of a performance that the Marlins were satisfied in leaving Gregg in a setup role upon his return.

Pressure environments didn't faze Lindstrom last year. In 19 save situations (including non-traditional chances before the ninth inning) he posted a 1.65 ERA with 21 strikeouts and just two walks in 16 1/3 innings pitched. Even with his success, he showed some control issues as he worked on harnessing his secondary pitches, but he flashed the potential Florida saw in him.

Lindstrom's career

When the Marlins acquired the hard-throwing righty back in 2006 from the New York Mets, many could probably see then that he was the Marlins' closer of the future. Lindstrom, much like injured New York Mets closer Billy Wagner (elbow), relies mainly on his fastball as his weapon of choice. Lindstrom at almost any point can touch triple digits on the radar gun and, as such, has the ability to overpower certain hitters with his velocity.

However, like most major league pitchers, it would be foolish to rely only on one pitch, especially the fastball. Lindstrom also has a split-finger fastball and a slider in his arsenal. He has acknowledged that though he has a plus pitch with his fastball, he needs to perfect his other two pitches if he wants to have success in the future. He already threw his off-speed pitches with success last season, and with an offseason to work on them, the thought is that they will only get better in complementing his fastball.

Armed with his devastating fastball, Lindstrom has done very well for himself in his two years in the league, with a career ERA of 3.11 in 124 1/3 innings of work. Lindstrom has a career average of 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings, which is surprisingly low for a pitcher with a fastball of his character. His low strikeout numbers are seemingly a factor of his inability to find the strike zone at certain times, with his nine career wild pitches and his 47 walks in 124 1/3 innings. Last season he averaged 4.1 walks per nine innings, a surprisingly high number. If he wants to succeed as the Marlins closer this coming season, he will have to work on his control.

Other Marlins closing options

While the job is almost guaranteed to be going to Lindstrom, there are others down in Florida capable of closing games for the Fish. The player who stands out immediately is reliever Joe Nelson, who looked filthy at times last year, fanning 60 batters in 54 innings of work while posting a 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .207 opponents' batting average. He recorded a save in September of last year while Gregg was hurt. A fringe reliever for most of his brief major league career, the 34-year-old is the team's top setup man and would likely be next in line if Lindstrom were to suffer.

Righty Jose Ceda, acquired from the Cubs in the deal for Gregg, is a 21-year-old minor leaguer who has potential to close in the future. A recent MLB.com report compared Ceda to all-time elite closer Lee Smith in terms of his build (6-foot-4, 275 pounds). At Double-A Tennessee last year, he posted a 2.08 ERA with nine saves and 42 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings pitched - that accounts for 12.46 K's per nine innings. Though he has had command problems in the past, he showed steps toward rectifying them with just 14 walks at Double-A for a walks-per-nine-innings average of 4.15, knocking his career minor league average down to 4.89.

However, Ceda seems to be coming into the same mold as Lindstrom, a hard-throwing righty who relies on his fastball and has some control issues. Though Ceda could be the closer down the line, it is unlikely that he will factor into the role this season, since he hasn't yet sniffed the majors.

Another potential option for the Marlins is Logan Kensing, a 26-year-old righty entering his sixth major league season. Kensing is another high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher, however he has had less success in his career than Lindstrom. Kensing has a career 4.94 ERA but has a career 8.88 K's per nine innings. He could compete for the closer role if it opens up again, but he would need some outside help to get the job.

A longshot is righty Henry Owens (shoulder), who missed all of 2008 after undergoing surgery in 2007 to repair a partial rotator cuff tear. He has been thrown around in conversations as a future closer. However, even if he's deemed healthy to pitch next year, he'll have to wait for his return; he was suspended for the first 50 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Lindstrom should be on fantasy owners' cheat sheets heading into this season's draft. Though there is still some question as to whether he officially has the role or not, the expectation is that he will see the Marlins' save opportunities, at least initially. The Marlins were tied for 15th in the majors with 60 save opportunities last year, and Lindstrom could be on tap for 30-plus saves this upcoming season if he retains the role.

Though Lindstrom is somewhat of a question mark since he only has five career saves, he still projects as a solid No. 2 closing option for owners. Though it might be tempting due to his potential, owners should not attempt to rely on Lindstrom as their top closing option at this point, since his control could still be an issue and he is relatively unproven in the role.

Lindstrom should be taken between the middle and late rounds of the draft, around the time when other middle-tier closers are being taken.

Nelson likely will be drafted in deep NL-only formats next season given his steady strikeout production and his effectiveness in a setup role. Take a chance on him if you miss out on drafting low-end closers in those universes. 

Ceda holds some speculative value in NL-only and keeper leagues, however it is unknown at this point what role, if any, he will have on the major league team this season. Keep him on your radar.

Kensing holds similar strikeout value, and owners will want to keep an eye on him in case Lindstrom goes down.

Don't worry about Owens until midseason, but even then he probably won't be much of a factor.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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