Impact Analysis: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

November 18, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Herija C. Green

When Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia trotted out to his position surrounded by close to 45,000 crazed fans on Opening Day inside the Tokyo Dome and fresh off American League Rookie of the Year honors, nobody expected the 5-foot-9, 180-pound firecracker to follow that up by winning the 2008 AL Most Valuable Player award.

As the 162-game marathon wound to an end, Pedroia finished first in the AL in runs scored (118) and second in batting average (.326). In addition, the Arizona State University alum finished first in the majors in doubles (54) and was tied with Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki for the most hits with 213. Pedroia was also No. 1 in each respective category among big league second baseman.

Adding to an already top-notch season, Pedroia pocketed 17 dingers with 83 RBIs, 20 stolen bases in 21 attempts and a strong .869 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). Now as the 2008 awards season winds to a close, Pedroia has reeled in Gold Glove honors for his defensive work and was recently selected by AL coaches and managers as the AL Silver Slugger at second base - all this on top of his MVP selection.

Perplexing power

One facet of Pedroia's game that is sure to boggle the minds of prospective owners come draft day is his recent spike in power. The 17 dingers he hit last year were nine more than he mashed during 2007. He also had 33 more RBIs and 15 more doubles in 2008. Granted, he registered 133 more at-bats in 2008, but more than doubling a previous year's home run total and seeing significant gains in other power categories is surely an impressive sign of a player cultivating his cache of talent.

Plus, with a mere 52 whiffs in 2008, the hawkeyed mighty mite emerged as one of the hardest men to strikeout in the majors. He also raised his batting average with runners in scoring position to .307, which was 44 points higher than the .263 mark he posted in 2007.

Minor production

The question currently filtering through fantasy nation is if he can maintain last year's Herculean surge in power. Since his inception in Boston's minor league system in 2004, Pedroia hit a grand total of 21 home runs in 1,040 minor league at-bats.

In a combined 460 at-bats between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket in 2005, Pedroia matured into a .293 hitter with 28 doubles, 13 home runs, 64 RBIs, 78 runs and eight stolen bases.

The 2006 season with Pawtucket saw the spunky catalyst hit .305 with 30 doubles, five home runs, 50 RBIs, 55 runs and an .810 OPS. Although he finished his 2006 campaign in Boston with less than impressive numbers, he still registered 89 at-bats while getting his first taste of big league experience.

Moving forward, there's nothing to suggest Pedroia's power numbers should decrease significantly, though his small stature may cap his home run total at around 20. Over his young career, he has shown a knack for producing at a consistent level for a couple years only to take the next step. Keep that in mind as the 25-year-old pushes ahead into his prime hacking years.

We've already begun to see fantasy reliability from the developing star. His unswerving demeanor and ability to consistently put the ball in play undoubtedly provide potential owners with the comfort usually brought on by sipping a warm hot chocolate by a wood burning stove on a cold New England night.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Although the fact that he won the MVP and plays for one of the game's highest-profile teams may inflate his value further, Pedroia should be considered a top-50 fantasy player on draft day. That would put him near the end of Round 4 or beginning of Round 5, which is similar to where New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano went last year after posting a .306-19-97 line in 2007.

His history suggests we remain skeptical of his power numbers based on previous years, but he should be a quality contributor in the other fantasy categories even if his power numbers take a dip. The fact that he plays second base boosts his value, but don't overspend on him just because he's at a shallower position. He offers good value in the early middle rounds and is emerging as one of the more reliable producers for batting average and runs in the league.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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