Impact Analysis: Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics

November 21, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Unable to solve personnel problems with mountains of money, medium- to small-market baseball franchises are often forced into creative roster management to stay competitive. In that light, the Colorado Rockies finalized the deal of star outfielder Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics Wednesday, Nov. 12, for relief pitcher Huston Street, left-handed starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

The Rockies were faced with the expiration of Holliday's contract at the end of the 2009 season and the possibility of not having the financial resources necessary to re-sign him. Instead, they chose to deal him to the A's for a package of younger and cheaper players. As a result, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Holliday moves from one of the better hitters' ballparks in the major leagues to one of the better pitchers' parks. To say that the move affects Holliday's fantasy value would be an understatement.

A former MVP candidate

After Holliday's MVP-caliber 2007 season, many fantasy players were disappointed that he didn't return first-round production in 2008. A trip to the disabled list May 25 with a strained hamstring, followed by nagging back soreness in September, conspired to keep Holliday out of the lineup for a total of 23 games in 2008. That missed time, along with an abysmal September, kept Holliday's overall numbers down. He finished with a .321 batting average, 25 home runs, 88 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 28 stolen bases.

Breaking down the numbers

A quick comparison of Holliday's elite 2007 stat line to his less than awesome 2008 line highlights two key points: a decline in power and a major increase in steals.

	BA	HR	SB	BB	K	OBP	SLG	FB%	HR/FB
2007	.340	36	11	63	126	.405	.607	36.0	19.5
2008	.321	25	28	74	104	.409	.538	32.7	17.5

While Holliday's on-base percentage actually rose slightly from 2007 to 2008, his slugging percentage fell by almost 70 points. This could be due to Holliday's markedly improved plate discipline (an excellent 0.71 walk-to-strikeout ratio), as more selective hitters occasionally become less aggressive in their approach. The more compelling explanation is the decline in Holliday's flyball rate and home run-to-flyball ratio, though. Simply put, he hit fewer flyballs in 2008, and they did not travel as far as they did in 2007.

As far as the major jump in Holliday's stolen base total, there is little to explain the anomaly. Prior to 2008, he had never stolen more than 14 bases in any season, not even in the minors, and he has never been considered particularly speedy. Additionally, Holliday's 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame is not exactly that of the prototypical basestealer. However, he is considered a smart thief, one who is able to pick his spots. The decline in slugging percentage with no drop-off in OBP suggests that Holliday was faced with more opportunities to steal in 2008 than he had been in 2007, and perhaps prior.

What to expect in 2009

It is indisputable that Holliday is moving to a home environment that will be less amenable to the posting of gaudy statistics, but that is not to say that Holliday's fantasy value will disappear. On the contrary, Holliday has demonstrated that he has a skill set that will be durable going forward (i.e., good plate discipline). Still, expectations for him in 2009 should be tempered.

To begin with, there is ample statistical evidence to indicate that Oakland's McAfee Coliseum will depress Holliday's numbers. The huge foul territory in that cavernous facility does no favors to hitters, while the thick coastal California air and deep outfield dimensions work to keep potential bombs in the yard. Batting average, runs, doubles and especially home runs by right-handed batters are all suppressed by the ballpark.

Furthermore, throughout Holliday's five-year major league career, he has posted significantly better numbers at Colorado's Coors Field compared to other venues.

	AB	BA	HR	RBI	R
Home	1,353	.357	84	307	285
Away	1,303	.280	44	176	194

With career splits like those, fantasy owners have to be concerned about the move to Oakland. That said, we should not overstate the importance of these split stats. Even if Holliday's home production falls significantly from his move to Oakland, that still means that he could be a respectable outfield talent.

Moving to the American League will also be tough for Holliday. Last season the Oakland A's had the lowest batting average and scored the fewest runs of any team in the American League. In contrast, Holliday leaves a team that was in the middle of the pack in the National League in batting. He enjoyed having the likes of third baseman Garrett Atkins, outfielder Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki surrounding him in the lineup. Holliday now gets such big names as first baseman Daric Barton, shortstop Bobby Crosby and designated hitter Jack Cust. In general, we can expect that Oakland's inferior offense will offer Holliday less opportunity for driving in and scoring runs. Holliday leaves a club that was fifth in the NL in on-base percentage for one that was virtually tied for dead last in that mark in the AL.

His probable stolen base total might seem difficult to project. Considering that his success rate was very high last year (28 steals in 30 attempts), it is not inconceivable that Oakland will let him run, but a return to close to 30 steals should not be anticipated. That is especially true when comparing team philosophies. The Rockies have finished in the top half of the National League, with at least 131 attempts, in each of the past three seasons. On the other hand, the A's have finished in the bottom half of the American League in attempts. In 2006 and 2007, they were in the bottom third, with 76.5 attempts per season as a team. Reserve outfielder Rajai Davis (25 steals in 31 attempts), whose only valuable contribution is speed, boosted the club's totals in each category for the 2008 version. A lack of stolen base attempts is not merely a recent trend for the A's, either.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Holliday is in the prime of his career and has proven to be an effective hitter over several years of work. He has also remained relatively injury free. A decline in his batting average should be accompanied by a similar decline in his home runs, RBIs, runs scored and stolen bases. All in all, current and future Holliday owners should not expect a 2009 stat line close to what they are accustomed to.

Based on name recognition, Holliday may still be drafted highly by many fantasy players, and it might be wise to simply let others procure his services. At the same time, even casual fantasy owners are likely to be aware of how the switch might affect him. He's a huge risk in the first two rounds, and auction participants should be conservative with their bids. If you find yourself drafting in the fourth or fifth round and Holliday is still available, he might be worth the pickup. Ideally, he would serve as a No. 2 outfielder, although it's unlikely that fantasy owners will be able to draft him as such.

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