Impact Analysis: Edwin Jackson, Detroit Tigers

April 15, 2009 @ 01:01:02

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

For Detroit Tigers pitcher Edwin Jackson, 2009 brings not only a new team, but a chance to prove that his 2008 performance was no fluke. In 183 1/3 frames, the hard-throwing righty earned 14 wins, helping the Tampa Bay Rays to their first division title.

Also impressive was Jackson's performance during the playoffs, where he posted a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 4 1/3 relief innings. This clutch postseason performance, along with his solid 2008 campaign, drew the attention of Detroit, who acquired the 25-year-old during the offseason.

Control issues

Table: Edwin Jackson's major league statistics (2007-2008)

	W	L	IP	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2007	5	15	161 1/3	88	128	5.76	1.76	.299
2008	14	11	183 1/3	77	108	4.42	1.51	.281

2007 was just about as ugly as it comes for a major league pitcher. Jackson's control was a gaping issue, as he averaged 4.92 walks per nine innings. 

Jackson improved his control in 2008, allowing an average of 3.78 walks per nine innings. September was his best month; he issued only eight free passes in 27 1/3 frames. Unfortunately, the improvement in his control came at the expense of his dominance, as his strikeout total took a dip.

He also had trouble pitching deep into games, as he cracked seven innings or more only twice during his whole 2007 campaign. In 2008 he was able to reach seven innings or more 10 times.

Versus lefties

Like most right-handed pitchers, Jackson has had difficulty dealing with southpaws.

Table: Edwin Jackson's major league statistics vs. lefties (2007-2008)

	IP	H	HR	BB	K	WHIP
2007	81 1/3	105	9	56	70	1.98
2008	84 2/3	101	8	48	42	1.76

Although his hits and home runs have stayed relatively consistent in this time, Jackson's control and WHIP improved; however, as previously mentioned, it came at the expense of his strikeouts.

In his first two outings this season, Jackson fared far better against lefties, a sign that the youngster is continuing to improve, although it should be noted that the sample size is very limited (13 1/3 innings).

Heads up

A 40.1 percent flyball rate last season (up from 35.6 percent in 2007) benefited Jackson, as he pitched at Tropicana Field, which is somewhat stingy when it comes to the longball. Jackson only allowed 11 home runs when pitching at home last season.

His new home at Comerica Park is a bit more hitter-friendly, so Jackson, who allowed two jacks in his first home outing at Comerica, will have to work on keeping the ball on the ground. That percentage dropped six points from 2007 to 2008 to 39.1.

Defense

Jackson benefited from the Rays' superb defense, which ranked among the best in MLB (playing at Tropicana Field didn't hurt, either). Unfortunately, he may not be receiving the same defensive support from the Tigers, who committed 113 errors last season (14 more than the MLB average); however, Manager Jim Leyland has made some personnel and positional changes this offseason in hopes of improving Detroit's defense (adding shortstop Adam Everett, reducing Carlos Guillen's outfield duty and moving Brandon Inge to third base).

2009

To help progress Jackson and the rest of Detroit's young rotation, Rick Knapp, formerly the Minnesota Twins' minor league pitching coordinator, was hired as the pitching coach because of his ability to develop young pitchers.

Knapp's coaching appears to have had a positive effect on Jackson, who posted solid spring numbers. He also had a terrific first outing, in which he allowed one earned run, two hits and only one walk in 7 1/3 innings vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. His second outing was a little rougher, as he surrendered four earned runs, five hits and three walks in six innings vs. the Texas Rangers.

Knapp has worked with Jackson on aggressively attacking the strike zone early in at-bats. If this holds true, maybe that K total will rise up a notch.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Jackson is an intriguing player with lots of upside. If he could meld his improved control with his dominating velocity, he could become a real threat on the mound. Detroit's potent offense (which ranked fifth in runs scored last season) will ensure that there will be no shortage of run support.

A solid spring training and good start to the season is nice, but he needs to prove he can be more consistent before he can be considered a reliable fantasy option. Be selective with Jackson for now. In deep mixed leagues he could be worth a pickup off the waiver wire; what do you have to lose? Shallow league managers should keep on eye on him.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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