Impact Analysis: Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins

April 15, 2009 @ 01:01:02

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

A stellar Opening Day performance helped turn Florida Marlins third baseman Emilio Bonifacio into one of the hottest early pickups in fantasy baseball. The new leadoff hitter displayed uncanny speed with an inside-the-park home run, three stolen bases and four runs scored. At this stage, Bonifacio is owned in any semi-competitive league, but there is natural speculation about where he is headed: waiver wire wonder or washout waiting to happen.

Inherit the Wind

There is no questioning his speed. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez said of Bonifacio, "He's the fastest guy I've ever seen in my life." So as long as Bonifacio is the name penciled atop the Marlins lineup card, runs and stolen bases should be bountiful. As the former No. 1 Fish, Ramirez averaged 45.67 stolen bases per year over the last three seasons. In that time, spent mostly in the minor leagues, Bonifacio swept 42.33 bags while hitting for a .298 average.

At the plate, "Buck Money" - as Ramirez nicknamed him - is a groundball hitter who swings primary at strikes, but he has shown a knack to strike out despite very little power. During big league stints with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals over the last two years, Bonifacio compiled a .240 batting average in 60 games.

Riding the waves

This is the first assignment at the hot corner for Bonifacio, a full-time second baseman in the minor leagues. Bonifacio has plenty of versatility, playing some shortstop in 2007 and last season spending three games in the outfield following a call-up. Regardless of the condition of his glove, sloppy defense is all over a Marlins infield that has limited options at third, but if he's needed elsewhere, it is nice to know Bonifacio can perform adequately at other positions.

The switch-hitting speedster has surely bought himself plenty of time with multi-hit efforts in six of the first seven games, multiple runs scored in four of those and the strong spring that earned him the job in the first place - leading the team in hits. Meanwhile, the Marlins are sold on Ramirez as their No. 3 hitter and have the equally strikeout-happy Cameron Maybin traveling all over the slate so far, giving Bonifacio no immediate threat at the top. This could change as the season drags on, though.

His career minor league numbers (2,574 at-bats):

• .285 average
• .341 OBP
• .362 slugging percentage, .077 isolated power
• 0.40 batting eye (213 walks, 532 K's)

Bonifacio would need an Ichiro Suzuki-like average to offset his lack of contribution in the power columns.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Naysayers will look to his sloppy defense, light bat and low walk rate (2.9 percent so far this year) as warnings Bonifacio's current level of performance cannot be sustained. With 10 home runs in the last three minor league seasons, he's a speed-only commitment, but those that added Bonifacio early could yield big results in the speed categories.

His value is heavily tied to his ability on making contact and getting on base. Any fluctuations can hurt since his contributions are speed-only. His offense runs the risk of fizzling out, but you can at least stash him in deep mixed and NL leagues for the entire season. Owners in shallow mixed leagues can part with a one-dimensional supplier more easily, but they should look to flip Bonifacio in a trade while his value is high before catching and releasing this fish.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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