Impact Analysis: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

September 15, 2008 @ 15:25:57

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Herija C. Green

For Tampa Bay Rays left-handed pitching phenom David Price, it was a matter of when, not if, he was going to make the majors. After getting drafted with the top overall selection in the 2007 draft, Price signed a six-year, $8.5 million contract, and he received the second-richest signing bonus ($5.6 million) in amateur draft history.

Price didn't pitch in the minors last season, but he went to spring training with the Rays this season prior to starting his pro career with the Class A Vero Beach Devil Rays. He quickly ascended through the ranks before making his debut with the Rays Sunday, Sept. 14. Price, recently named the USA Today's Minor League Player of the Year, is seemingly on the road to stardom, but is he ready to help fantasy squads?

A sensational prospect

Price was a junior at Vanderbilt University when he entered the draft. During his final year, he went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 194 strikeouts in only 133 1/3 innings - 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings. His dominance, combined with a glowing scouting report entering the draft, convinced Tampa Bay to take him first overall.

The phenom boasts a low to mid-90s fastball, which has a natural tail away from righties, along with a devastating slider that he throws in the mid-to high 80s. Both are considered "plus" pitches, and he also has a deceptive changeup in his pitching arsenal.

His quick ascension through the minors

The lefty rocketed through the minors with his longest stay at any one location being nine starts. During the process, he completely dominated both the Single- and Double-A levels. With Vero Beach, Price went 4-0 in six starts while tallying a 1.82 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He had 37 strikeouts and only seven walks in 34 1/3 innings of work.

After being called up to Double-A, Price again dominated the minor league competition, going 7-0 in nine starts with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Slightly concerning are the seven homers he served up, but even they didn't negatively affect his numbers too much. Though he was still overpowering, his K/9 ratio (8.7) went down while his rate of walks per nine frames (2.5) went up.

Price was then promoted to Triple-A for the remainder of the Durham Bulls' season, making four starts and registering a 1-1 record. His ERA was at 4.50, and his WHIP jumped up to 1.72. These jumps are worrisome, but given the small sample size it could have been an anomaly. He didn't have any blowups, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts, but he never worked past five innings. However, Price saw his K/9 ratio dip to 8.5, and his BB/9 ratio jump to 4.5.

Playoff push with Price

It appears obvious that the Rays had a calculated plan all season long for Price to arrive in the majors. Even though the lefty struggled a bit at Triple-A, the Rays still felt he was ready for the majors. However, despite being a top prospect, there are still signs that he may struggle.

The fact that his K/9 is significantly lower than his final year at Vanderbilt and lowered after every promotion is troublesome. In addition, he has been walking more batters, indicating that his control could be a concern at this point in the season. However, with a combined 12-1 record, 2.31 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 109 strikeouts in 109 2/3 minor league innings this season, it's obvious that Price has the tools if he can handle the pressure of a playoff run.

Price made his first major league appearance out of the bullpen against the New York Yankees Sept. 14 because of a poor outing by pitcher Edwin Jackson. Price was called on for 5 1/3 innings of long relief, allowing three hits and two runs while striking out four.

The southpaw could still be called upon to make a start, possibly during the team's scheduled double-header Tuesday, Sept. 23, but he is expected to primarily assume a relief role down the stretch.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Since Price isn't expected to receive many starts this late in the season and should mainly pitch out of the bullpen, his value to fantasy teams is limited. He has the potential to put up some good ratios and strikeout stats, but he figures to see few chances to pick up wins.

However, if owners are pushing for a championship, it's just as important to get Price for yourself as it is to keep him from your opponents. Owners in all formats can consider Price for pitching help in the final weeks of the season, but those in shallow formats should be mindful of their needs before acting given the likelihood of limited innings from the rookie.

Price, though not a great option this season, is expected to compete for a spot in Tampa Bay's rotation next season and remains one of the long-term studs in keeper formats. He's a player that owners will want to follow and have on their cheat sheets next season during fantasy baseball drafts, as he has the potential to become a great pitcher and will be pitching for a good Rays squad.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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