Impact Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals bullpen

September 11, 2008 @ 14:09:24

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Herija C. Green

For a team 11 games above .500 with less than a month to go in the season, a bullpen situation as rocky as the St. Louis Cardinals' is hard to come by. However, from the start of the 2008 season, manager Tony La Russa has had to endure new face after new face in the ninth inning due to injury and/or inconsistency from numerous candidates.

Now, entering the final stretch, the Cardinals are set to rest their laurels on two closers to form a committee – highly-touted reliever Chris Perez, and injury-prone veteran pitcher Chris Carpenter. The questions that remain are how effective the two will be late in games, when will Carpenter be available to pitch again, and what will they bring to the table from a fantasy perspective?

Bullpen a rollercoaster

Out of the gates, the Cardinals bullpen actually emerged as one of the league's stronger units, particularly with then-closer Jason Isringhausen (elbow) finishing off games. The veteran was the first pitcher in the majors with five saves, and he had a streak of 23 consecutive save conversions going up until April 12.

However, seeing his streak snapped, Isringhausen hit a wall. Including that blown save, Isringhausen allowed 10 hits and eight runs over his next six outings, including two losses and two blown saves. He blew three more saves in his first five May appearances and finally lost his role to relief pitcher Ryan Franklin May 10. Isringhausen would be placed on the disabled list just a few days later.

Franklin burst on the scene with a string of impressive outings as the team's new primary closer. Following the first game of a doubleheader June 5, when Franklin notched his seventh save, his ERA for the season had dropped to 1.98. However, just as Isringhausen's performance had gone south, the same happened to Franklin. He blew four of his next 11 save opportunities, and his ERA jumped to 3.96 as of July 26. As a result, La Russa opted to revert back to using Isringhausen to handle the ninth-inning duties.

Instead of Isringhausen's return being a success story, the closer suffered a torn flexor muscle in his right elbow, ending his season in mid-August. Thus, once again, St. Louis' closer position was vacated.

Perez emerges

Down at Triple-A Memphis, Perez, a top-notch closing prospect, was dominating the opposition. In 25 1/3 innings, Perez had surrendered nine earned runs, good for a 3.20 ERA. More impressive, though, were his eye-popping 38 strikeouts, good for 13.5 K's per nine innings.

As a result, Perez was recalled Aug. 6, and he recorded a five-out save that very night. However, La Russa refused to give a rookie the closing gig outright, saying that Perez was not the team's closer the next day.

The opposite appeared to be the case, though, as by the end of August, Perez had notched six saves in as many chances and lowered his ERA from 4.18 when he was recalled to 3.00, making it seem as though St. Louis finally had a steady option at the back end of the bullpen.

However, just like his predecessors, Perez eventually fell from grace, blowing back-to-back saves to open the month of September, and prompting another change from La Russa.

Settling on Carpenter and Perez

The latest experiment La Russa is looking to undertake, possibly for the rest of the season, is a closer-by-committee approach consisting of Carpenter and Perez.

A former Cy Young Award winner, Carpenter missed nearly all of 2007 and most of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, resulting in only five appearances since a 15-win season in 2006. The team originally pegged Carpenter as a starter when he was returned at the end of July, but he suffered a triceps injury after three starts, leading to yet another trip to the disabled list.

In an effort to not exert too much stress on his arm for the rest of the season while still getting something out of him during their playoff run, Carpenter is now set to close games when available for the remainder of the year. The key aspect of that sentence being "when available," as Carpenter has not been deemed ready to pitch since making a relief appearance Tuesday, Sept. 2, which clouds the picture of any potential committee.

Keep in mind, Carpenter hasn't pitched out of the bullpen in the majors since the 2000 season, so his body isn't used to the abbreviated recovery period associated with pitching in relief. This makes things doubly tough on fantasy owners, who must downgrade Perez because of Carpenter's presence but can't count on the veteran due to concerns about his health.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Perez and Carpenter could both carry value for the remainder of the season for owners that are desperate for saves, but Carpenter's availability leaves things up in the air. Perez's value has to take a hit as it's unlikely he would record more than one or two saves during a given week if Carpenter is available, but with so much uncertainty surrounding that situation Perez needs to be retained.

The veteran, meanwhile, receives a boost as it initially appeared as though he would only work in middle relief for the rest of 2008. However, his prospects are uncertain at best having not appeared in more than a week. Plus, the Cardinals will almost certainly not use him more than once per series, which makes him by far the shakier option of the two and only worth adding for those truly in need of saves.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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