Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Fantasy football utilizations and targets

August 28, 2008 @ 16:02:25

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Even fledgling fantasy players know to focus on carries when thinking about selecting a running back or receptions when it comes time to pick a receiver or tight end. Savvy owners pay heed to an overlooked statistic known as utilizations, though. Utilizations allow an owner to get a fuller picture of a team's offense as they indicate where the ball was intended to go on a given play rather than merely focusing on the resulting touches (receptions or carries). It does this by taking into account things like incompletions or interceptions.

For example, in Week 1 of 2007, Baltimore Ravens receiver Demetrius Williams caught just three balls for 55 yards, which is hardly the kind of production that will make fantasy owners scramble to the waiver wire. However, a closer look shows Williams was actually targeted 11 times that week, which tied him for 11th in the NFL among receivers for that week. In deep leagues where free-agent options are scarce, that kind of offensive involvement bumps Williams' value up, making him a potentially more desirable addition than the box score would indicate.

As one might imagine, this is a particularly valuable tool when dealing with receivers and tight ends, as it shows how often the ball is being thrown to them rather than how often they are catching it. Conversely, fantasy owners aren't able to deduce as much about the quarterback position based on this statistical measure since those players' utilizations are made up of pass attempts, sacks taken and rush attempts. Utilizations fall somewhere in the middle in their value to running backs, though it is another way to help distinguish which running backs are factors in the passing game and which are not.

The corresponding percentage associated with the utilizations indicates what percent of the total offensive snaps went in that player's direction. The higher the percentage, the more involved in a team's offense a particular player is. Not surprisingly, San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson led all non-quarterbacks by being utilized 403 times, or in 40.7 percent of the team's offensive plays, in 2007. Furthermore, it should come as no surprise that the next 37 non-quarterbacks in terms of utilizations were also running backs - the top 10 are shown below.

Table: Top 10 most utilized running backs - 2007

Rank	Name	Team	Total Plays	Play Percentage
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	403	40.70
2	Brian Westbrook	PHI	400	38.09
3	Clinton Portis	WAS	386	36.25
4	Edgerrin James	ARI	364	35.20
5	Willie Parker	PIT	353	36.33
6	Thomas Jones	NYJ	345	33.15
7	Willis McGahee	BAL	343	30.91
8	Jamal Lewis	CLE	337	34.05
9	LenDale White	TEN	335	32.23
10	Frank Gore	SF	330	36.20

Some names on that list may surprise you, as there are a few players in there who are unlikely to be drafted in the first three or four rounds in most leagues. Now, while yardage and touchdowns shouldn't play second fiddle to utilizations, they should certainly be used as a potential tiebreaker as they illustrate which players are garnering the most opportunities. Keep that in mind when drafting.

As previously noted, the top receiver in terms of utilizations (more commonly referred to as targets for this position and tight ends) ranked 39th among non-quarterbacks. Cincinnati Bengals wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh took top honors with 179 total targets - good for 17.72 percent of Cincinnati's offense. Only eight other receivers accounted for more than 150 targets, with just seven others eclipsing 15 percent.

Table: Top 10 most utilized wide receivers - 2007

Rank	Name	Team	Total Plays	Play Percentage
1	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	179	17.72
2	Brandon Marshall	DEN	171	17.47
3	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	171	16.54
4	Chad Johnson	CIN	169	16.73
5	Derrick Mason	BAL	168	15.14
6	Steve Smith	CAR	163	15.91
7	Randy Moss	NE	160	14.95
8	Braylon Edwards	CLE	153	15.46
9	Reggie Wayne	IND	152	15.09
10	Torry Holt	STL	146	13.90

One thing you should take notice of right away when glancing at this list is that, unlike the running backs, nine of the 10 receivers in this table are all but guaranteed to be among the first dozen or so wideouts selected in any given draft. Only Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Derrick Mason figures to last into the middle rounds. (Cincinnati Bengals receiver Chad Johnson (shoulder) may fall, too, although that development has much more to do with his partially torn labrum.) What that indicates is targets are a more accurate measure of fantasy value with receivers, and they should provide valuable insight when sifting through potential third or fourth receivers on your roster. Remember, more targets equates to more chances for a player to generate value.

Unlike the previous two positions, which saw a steady progression down the ranks, there are a handful of tight ends grouped at the top of the heap before a steep decline. Kansas City Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez leads the group with 155 targets, 15.58 percent of the team's offense, the volume of which would've landed him eighth among wideouts.

Table: Top 10 most utilized tight ends - 2007

Rank	Name	Team	Total Plays	Play Percentage
1	Tony Gonzalez	KC	155	15.58
2	Kellen Winslow	CLE	150	15.16
3	Jason Witten	DAL	143	14.38
4	Antonio Gates	SD	117	11.82
5	Chris Cooley	WAS	108	10.14
6	Dallas Clark	IND	104	10.32
7	Jeremy Shockey	NYG	97	9.07
8	Owen Daniels	HOU	94	9.82
9	Vernon Davis	SF	87	9.54
10	Jeff King	CAR	80	7.81

Within the standard utilizations and their corresponding percentages lies a particularly valuable subset known as red zone utilizations. This designates plays that occur inside the 20-yard line; they are even further split up, with plays inside the 5-yard line listed separately. The benefit of knowing which players are being utilized in the red zone is that it gives owners an idea of who is getting the most chances to score once the offense gets close to the end zone.

This is where someone like Jacksonville Jaguars tailback Maurice Jones-Drew's value shows up, as his 61 red zone utilizations were third among running backs, whereas his 221 total utilizations ranked 27th. Touches inside the 5 really demonstrate to whom teams look when it's time to punch the ball into the end zone, which gives a more complete picture for a player's touchdown potential.

For instance, New York Jets halfback Thomas Jones accounted for just two touchdowns in 338 touches last season, but he racked up 15 utilizations inside the 5-yard line (tied for ninth among running backs). Knowing that, doesn't Jones' touchdown drought in 2007 seem more like a fluke and something unlikely to repeat itself this year?

You can also spot receivers and tight ends that specialize in red zone targets. Would you believe New York Giants receiver Amani Toomer finished tied for ninth in the NFL among wideouts in red zone targets last year with 20? Or that 30 percent (15 of 50) of New England Patriots wideout Jabar Gaffney's total targets came in the red zone in 2007? This is the type of additional information that helps provide you with an edge. While others dismiss Toomer as an over-the-hill possession receiver, you might choose to scoop him up in the final round based on his red zone rapport with quarterback Eli Manning.

At the end of the day, utilizations are simply another tool fantasy owners should use to make the best, most informed decisions possible. When faced with similar options on draft day or during the weekly waiver process, simply check the respective options' utilization numbers, and you should have a better feel for what the future may hold for them. Doing this should give you a leg up on the competition.