Impact Analysis: Baltimore Orioles bullpen

August 21, 2008 @ 14:06:56

By Tim Piotrowski
Edited by Tim Heaney and Herija C. Green

The Baltimore Orioles placed closer George Sherrill (shoulder) on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday, Aug. 19, with left shoulder inflammation. The Orioles backdated the move to Saturday, Aug. 16, and called up reliever Kam Mickolio Wednesday, Aug. 20, from Triple-A Norfolk to replace Sherrill on the roster.

Sherrill should be considered one of the bigger fantasy surprises of the year based on his late-round value in 2008 fantasy baseball drafts. He came over to the Orioles from the Seattle Mariners in the trade involving starting pitcher Erik Bedard (shoulder) and was named the team's closer in March. He is 3-5 with 31 saves, a 4.47 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP on the season. He has struck out 54 batters and walked 30 in 50 1/3 innings.

Despite performing well in the role early in the season, the lefty has blown six saves and has struggled since pitching 2 1/3 innings in the All-Star Game. He is 1-1 with three saves, a 5.91 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in 10 appearances since the Midsummer Classic. Opponents have hit .295 against him in the second half compared to .221 before the All-Star break. The team considered dealing Sherrill at the trade deadline, but they elected not to part with the first-year closer.

Becoming a closer

Sherrill first made a name for himself as one of the Mariners' top setup men in 2007, putting up terrific numbers in the process. He was 2-0 with three saves, a 2.36 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 73 appearances, working primarily as a lefty specialist. He struck out 56 batters and walked 17 in 45 2/3 innings.

Sherrill held left-handed hitters to a .156 batting average and right-handed hitters to a .212 clip, improving the latter from .297 in 2006. He blew four saves last season, but none of them came in the ninth inning.

The 31-year-old adjusted well to the closer role, but he has already reached a single-season career high in innings pitched - a possible explanation for his recent struggles. After compiling a combined 3.68 ERA while going 26-for-31 in save chances from April to June, Sherrill has posted a 6.58 ERA with five saves in six opportunities since July 1. He has worked one inning or more 42 times this season; he had only 23 such performances last year.

Bullpen performance

This season, the Orioles rank eighth in the league with 51 save opportunities, converting 33 of them. That leaves them in the middle of the pack with a 65 percent conversion rate. The team had been pretty consistent in creating save opportunities this season until they hit August. The O's generated at least nine chances in each of the first four months of the season, but they only have had a major league worst two this month.

Filling his shoes

Orioles manager Dave Trembley has not named a replacement, but the team may turn to relief pitcher Jim Johnson for the majority of save chances while Sherrill is out. Johnson is 2-4 with one save, a 2.33 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 51 appearances. He has a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, fanning 36 batters and walking 27 in 65 2/3 innings.

His stats show that he pitches better at home, but his road splits aren't bad either. Johnson is 2-0 with one save and a 2.25 ERA in 32 innings at home, and he is 0-4 with a 2.41 ERA in 33 2/3 innings on the road. Opponents are only hitting .167 against him at home compared to .246 on the road. He has struggled in the last two months, posting a 4.50 ERA in July and a terrible 6.14 ERA thus far in August. Johnson worked the ninth Wednesday, Aug. 20, but he didn't produce a save as the team led by five. Still, the fact that Trembley arranged the bullpen to have Johnson pitch the final inning should be considered a good sign for his potential fantasy value.

Another player who could see save opportunities is relief pitcher Jamie Walker. He has struggled this season, going 1-0 with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 46 appearances. The 37-year-old saved seven games last year as the O's looked for a dependable stopper, and he could be a fallback option this time around as well.

Unlike Johnson, Walker's home and road splits are like night and day. He is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 13 innings at home this season. Unfortunately, he has a 7.94 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 17 innings on the road. Opponents are only hitting .163 against him at home versus a whopping .380 on the road. He has posted an ERA of more than 5.00 in April, June and August while also missing time due to elbow inflammation.

Mickolio was another piece of the Bedard deal and has upped his stock this season. He struck out 60 hitters in 56 1/3 combined innings between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. The No. 18 prospect in the Mariners organization according to Baseball America projects as a setup reliever; he has a career average of 8.92 strikeouts per nine innings in 142 1/3 minor league frames. The right-hander allowed a run on three hits in his first major league inning but struck out two batters.

Ray on his way?

The wild card in the Orioles bullpen is former closer Chris Ray (elbow), who is currently working his way back to the major leagues after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. With 33 saves in 2006, Ray appeared to establish himself as the Orioles' long-term closer. However, Ray did not put up great stats before succumbing to injury in 2007. He went 5-6 with 16 saves, a 4.43 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 43 appearances. Ray fanned 44 batters and walked 18 in 42 2/3 innings. He also blew four saves during the 2007 season.

The good news for him came this season when he started his rehab; after three outings in the Gulf Coast League, he took the mound Aug. 20 for Single-A Frederick and felt no pain. The bad news? He gave up two runs on three hits, including a home run, and showed a lack of control while being clocked at 94 mph. The righty is scheduled to pitch for Frederick Friday, Aug. 22. It's still unknown if Ray will pitch in the majors this season, but a good opportunity could be waiting for him.

The rosters expand Sept. 1, so the Orioles will not have to worry about making a corresponding move in order to activate Ray from the disabled list. Although they might not want to throw Ray into pressure situations, the Orioles could see if Ray is ready to fill the team's closer role as Sherrill may return good value in a trade during the offseason. Sherrill is under club control until 2011 and is a good value for an experienced reliever.

This doesn't seem likely to happen immediately, but Ray could steal a few save chances late in the year if he were to enter the picture.

Fantasy baseball outlook

From a fantasy perspective, Sherrill has been a reliable No. 3 closer this season. He has followed in the long line of closers that have been bit by the injury bug over the last several weeks, making owners scramble for a short-term replacement. Although the end of the season is approaching, owners should place Sherrill on the disabled list if they have the roster room because he could return in early September.

Owners in mixed leagues can think about dropping him if they don't have the space or some of the newly anointed closers are available, such as Cleveland Indians reliever Jensen Lewis or St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Chris Perez. It's possible Sherrill could be worn down from his All-Star appearance and the increased amount of innings he has thrown, but he should still see save chances once he comes back.

Owners who have Sherrill in keeper leagues should realize with Ray nearing a return and the southpaw a potentially attractive trading chip, Sherrill's value figures to plummet next season. Unless something unexpected occurs to create unforeseen value for Sherrill, he should not be retained.

Those looking to replace Sherrill should grab Johnson in all formats since he should have good short-term value.

Walker could be used against left-handed batters if the team decides to use a closer-by-committee arrangement. The southpaw should be on watch lists in mixed leagues but is worth picking up in AL-only formats.

At this point, Ray is only good for a flier in AL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues; he is unlikely to have much value even if he does come back to pitch this season. The likelihood of him regaining the full-time closer role is small, and the slight chance for a few ninth-inning opportunities at best isn't enough of a reason to drop someone with more fantasy worth.

Mickolio is intriguing for keeper and AL-only leagues, but don't approach him in any fantasy league this season.

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Tim Piotrowski
Piotrowski has been a Hot Off the Wire analyst since 2007.

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