Impact Analysis: C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers

August 11, 2008 @ 15:00:24

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Roller coaster Texas Rangers closer C.J. Wilson (elbow) is officially down for the remainder of the season after being placed on the disabled list effective Wednesday, Aug. 6. He will have season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs and bone chips from his left elbow.

Wilson was officially named the Rangers' closer in spring training this season, but to say he has struggled would be an understatement. Though he had yet to relinquish the closer duties to this point in the season, he was constantly turning blowout Texas wins into close games, if not losses.

Was Wilson fit to close?

Wilson was tabbed as the closer this season after a successful stint as closer for the last two months of 2007 after reliever Eric Gagne (now with the Milwaukee Brewers) was traded to the Boston Red Sox. Wilson only blew one save chance after being installed as the closer while racking up 12 saves.

He was competing with reliever Joaquin Benoit for save chances after the trade. Benoit pitched extremely poorly down the stretch, though; he allowed an earned run in four of his final five appearances of the season and posted a 5.73 ERA in September; he notched four saves but blew three other opportunities. This no doubt was in the minds of the Rangers front office brass when they were deciding on a closer for the '08 campaign. Benoit was nevertheless named the team's Pitcher of the Year for 2007 and considered a candidate to close entering 2008. Shoulder soreness in spring training helped prevent him from ever receiving serious consideration for the role, though.

Wilson, though successful last season, has struggled nearly all year long in '08. Surely Wilson owners would be surprised to learn he has only four blown saves on the year; in fact, many of his poor performances have come when the Rangers have had a large lead and Wilson has allowed multiple runs to turn the game into a nail-biter. Despite the bad outings, Washington stuck with Wilson and continually gave him his vote of confidence.

Regardless of Wilson's blown saves, the rest of his stats tell the story of his poor performance in 2008. Wilson boasts a 6.02 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP, both of which are among the worst in the majors for relievers. He has also allowed eight homers, double the number he allowed last season in 22 less innings.

What is obvious is where Wilson has gone wrong. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings (7.96) in 2008, though down from last year's mark (8.30), isn't significantly different. However, his strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.52) in 2008 is notably worse than last year's figure (1.91). Hitters this year have hit .268 against him, up from .208 last year. Also, his opponents' slugging percentage, at a career low of .288 last year, has ballooned to .475 in '08.

These stats indicate that not only have Wilson's opponents hit him well, but oftentimes they are hitting him hard and getting extra-base hits. Last season he only allowed 11 extra-base hits, but he has already allowed 20 (including the eight home runs) in '08. He put runners in scoring position often, and he was setting himself up for failure.

Wilson's biggest problems have come from his lack of control. Among closers, he has been one of the worst in the league in pitches per inning pitched (18.9 this season) and baserunners allowed. He has issued an insane 5.24 walks per nine innings, a rate even worse than his 4.35 mark from '07.

Right before the injury was revealed, Washington said that Wilson might not close for a few games; he was expected to appear in non-save situations to work on his mechanics. Wilson then entered the club's Tuesday, Aug. 5, contest with the New York Yankees in the eighth inning, with the Rangers leading 8-2. He allowed four runs on four hits via a grand slam by first baseman Richie Sexson while only registering one out in the inning. Reliever Jamey Wright bailed him out of the eighth frame; relief pitcher Eddie Guardado registered the save.

Wilson has been missing his spots quite a bit. He has allowed an extreme number of runners to reach base via the free pass; when he misses in the strike zone, he might as well set it on a tee. He is also not a strikeout pitcher in the mold of some of the more dominant closers. His fastball sits in the low 90s with some movement, but it's nothing devastating. If Wilson can't record outs without letting hitters put the ball in play, and he is constantly putting himself in peril, he is a ticking time bomb. Improved control is likely Wilson's only hope for future success.

"Everyday Eddie" is back

With Wilson out, former Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners closer Guardado steps into the Rangers closer role.

Guardado has 186 career saves and has seemed ready to step in and produce for the Rangers. Guardado has been pitching well for the Rangers, with a 3.15 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 45 2/3 innings. Combine his solid stats with his experience in the role, and it is a no-brainer for Washington to install Guardado as his closer. It is likely that Guardado could be the closer for the remainder of the season. He has recorded three saves this year.

Relievers Frank Francisco and Jamey Wright have been mentioned as possibilities to receive save opportunities when Guardado has been overworked. Francisco can be pretty nasty. He has a 3.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 58 K's in 47 2/3 innings, but he has no career saves. Neither does Wright (4.66 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 45 K's in 65 2/3 innings, all out of the bullpen), a journeyman and starter for most of his career.

Reliever Joaquin Benoit has some experience in the ninth inning and might be thought of as a factor as well. He recently returned from the disabled list after a bout with shoulder inflammation. However, he has a 5.79 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this year, and his strikeout rate of 7.71 is considerably lower than his marks from previous seasons.

Is Wilson done as Texas' closer?

According to a story in the Dallas Morning News, Wilson could be done as the Rangers' closer, partly as a result of his actions during his last appearance.

When taken out of the game after allowing the grand slam, Wilson tossed the ball to Washington and started walking off the mound before Washington made it to the mound. Washington grabbed him, handed him the ball and told him to hand it back to him before he could walk off the field. This blatant show of disrespect may have burned some bridges.

Wilson claims he had been pitching through pain; only after his four-run outing did he reveal his injury. Wilson decided to move forward with surgery after an appointment with Dr. Lewis Yocum Monday, Aug. 11. Yocum performed Wilson's Tommy John surgery in 2004. It is highly likely that the injury was a factor in his struggles.

Regardless, it is obvious is that Wilson needs to make some changes to again become a relevant pitcher for the Rangers. Obviously, a healthy arm will go a long way toward Wilson finding what made him successful in 2007.

Fantasy baseball outlook

This injury actually may come as a relief for Wilson owners; it finally gives them a reason to release him. He still maintains minor value in full-retention keeper leagues, but those owners have to be viewed as quite hopeful. Wilson is expected to be ready in plenty of time for spring training.

Guardado should promptly be added in all formats if he's still available. He has the potential to remain the closer the remainder of the season.

Francisco holds value in AL-only leagues and is a watch-list candidate in deep mixed formats; however, he will only get save opportunities when Guardado is unavailable to pitch. Fantasy owners can easily stomach his ratios and exceptional K rate, though. Wright, on the other hand, may only value because Washington uttered his name. He has never been an attractive fantasy pitcher in any role, so even those in AL-only formats are taking a big risk. Benoit holds no value.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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