Impact Analysis: Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees

August 8, 2008 @ 11:30:36

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Tim Heaney

The New York Yankees placed starting pitcher Joba Chamberlain (shoulder) on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday, Aug. 6, due to rotator cuff tendonitis in his right shoulder. The 22-year-old Chamberlain had compiled a 4-3 record this season, with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 89 innings pitched. The burly right-hander will rest for a week before beginning a throwing program, but no timetable has been set for his return even though he's eligible to return from the DL Aug. 20.

The young fireballer's absence creates a large hole to fill for both the Yankees and Chamberlain's fantasy owners. While we'd never endeavor to advise the Yanks, we can certainly offer Chamberlain's frustrated fantasy owners a few tips to help them through this predicament.

Background

Chamberlain was dominant as a setup man last season, forging a ridiculously low 0.38 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 24 innings of work. He also displayed the kind of wicked stuff that simply doesn't come along very often, and some believed that he was the Yankees' closer of the future. The Yanks had other plans, though. Chamberlain had been a starting pitcher throughout his college and minor league career, and the club planned to convert him into a big league starter. During spring training, speculation was rampant about when and how Chamberlain would enter the Yankees' starting rotation in 2008.

There were some concerns with the move, though: Chamberlain had battled triceps tendonitis during the 2006 season at the University of Nebraska, and there has been discussion as to whether Chamberlain's herky-jerky mechanics could hold up to the rigors of being a major league starting pitcher. To counteract these worries, the Yankees announced that Chamberlain's innings would be limited in 2008, and that to stay under the constraint he would start the year in the bullpen. The Yankees recognized Chamberlain's enormous potential and refused to take any chances with his valuable right arm.

When the 2008 season started, Chamberlain picked up right where he had left off, racking up a 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings pitched as a reliever. Eventually, Yankees co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner publicized his desire to see Chamberlain in the rotation as soon as possible, especially with the Yankees in the process of compiling a 4.56 ERA in the first month of action.

Gradually, the Yankees began to stretch out his pitch count, and Chamberlain made his first major league start June 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays. When Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang (foot) went down with a Lisfranc sprain in his right foot in mid-June, it was clear that Chamberlain's time as a permanent starting pitcher had arrived.

To the Yankees' delight, Chamberlain proved to be nearly as effective as a starting pitcher as he had been as a reliever, crafting a 3-1 record and 2.76 ERA in 12 starts. That 12th start proved disastrous, though, as Chamberlain had to leave the game Monday, Aug. 4, after just 4 2/3 innings due to stiffness in his right shoulder.

The Yankees moved quickly, sending Chamberlain for an MRI the following day and then to visit renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews the next. Andrews diagnosed Chamberlain with right rotator cuff tendonitis - inflammation of the connective tissue around the shoulder joint. The Yankees immediately placed Chamberlain on the disabled list and manager Joe Girardi announced that his wounded star would pitch again "when he's ready."

Life without Joba

The Yankees plan to call up starting pitcher Ian Kennedy (lat) to start Friday, Aug. 8, in Chamberlain's stead. The 23-year-old right-hander struggled in the majors earlier this season but has allowed only four earned runs over his last four starts at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Kennedy was reckoned to be a big part of the Yankees' plans this spring and actually began the year as the team's No. 5 starting pitcher.

He landed on the disabled list May 28 with a strained lat muscle after posting a horrendous 7.41 ERA through nine appearances - eight as a starting pitcher. Kennedy has been pitching in the minor leagues ever since, and he has compiled a 5-2 record and 1.99 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) at three different venues.

Kennedy is a much better pitcher than he showed during his early season work, and he could become a big part of the Yankees' plans if Chamberlain has to miss extended time. However, Kenney relies heavily on his control as his fastball isn't overpowering.

Righty Phil Hughes (ribcage) is working his way back to the bigs after struggling, like Kennedy, in what was supposed to be his first full major league season. He is expected to make at least one more start for Scranton next week and could emerge at the back end of the Yanks' rotation within the next two weeks.

In three appearances (one start) in his rehab trip with Single-A Charleston and Scranton, Hughes has compiled a 2-0 record and a 0.79 ERA in 11 1/3 innings of work. He lasted 4 2/3 innings in his start Thursday, Aug. 7, at Scranton, allowing one run on three hits with two walks and two strikeouts. He's expected to see his pitch count increase to 85 in his next outing.

Fantasy options

There are some other fantasy options out there that just may be available on your mixed league waiver wire. Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Gil Meche has been a rock since his disastrous 7.81 ERA back in April, posting monthly ERAs of 3.65 (May), 3.13 (June), 3.05 (July) and 3.00 (through his first start in August). He has been especially good after the break, going 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings of work. Meche probably won't garner many wins pitching for the sad-sack Royals, but his total of 115 strikeouts in 142 2/3 innings pitched this season is far from shabby.

While Meche is a safe alternative for Chamberlain, Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jorge Campillo should appeal to the riverboat gambler style of fantasy manager. The 30-year-old rookie has been en fuego since entering the Braves' starting rotation back in late May, reeling off a 6-4 record and 2.92 ERA in 15 starts for the Braves. His season's WHIP stands at a stellar 1.05, and he has fanned 76 batters in 108 innings of work. It's hard to say how long the previously unknown Campillo will keep up this torrid pace, but his fantasy owners are content to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Fantasy baseball outlook

If history is any indication, the Yankees will take things very slowly with their talented young fireballer and will not risk further injury by rushing him back to the rotation. There is a school of thought that would involve Chamberlain returning as a reliever, but that will likely depend upon how well his recovery process goes.

The Yankees bullpen has been one of the team's strengths this season, but they could always add another positive asset to their stable. It is troubling that this is Chamberlain's first significant shoulder injury, though he has dealt with muscle strains and the aforementioned triceps tendonitis earlier in his career.

From a fantasy standpoint, though the exact extent of Chamberlain's injury is not yet known, the talented youngster is definitely worth stashing on your team's DL or bench no matter your fantasy league. Meanwhile, scour your waiver wire - there just might be a viable stand-in fantasy option sitting out there waiting for you. Keep abreast of any developments regarding Chamberlain's return date and his projected role when he does make it back.

AL-only fantasy owners should add Kennedy as soon as he's recalled - if not beforehand. Mixed league owners should wait until they see how he fares in his first big-league start since May. Hughes should have been reserved in AL-only leagues, so mixed league owners could take a stab with him now, especially if they're thin on pitching.

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Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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