Impact Analyis: Billy Wagner, New York Mets

August 7, 2008 @ 13:46:14

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Herija C. Green and Nicholas Minnix

The back end of the New York Mets bullpen just became muddled after All-Star closer Billy Wagner (forearm) was placed on the disabled list, retroactive to Aug. 3, with a strained forearm in his pitching arm. The move was prompted by an MRI on his injured arm. The good news is that the same MRI showed no structural damage in his elbow, and he is expected back as soon as he is eligible to return from the DL.

Wagner, though spotty at times, has been a solid closer overall this season. Before Wagner hit the disabled list, no one on the roster had a save. Though he has seven blown saves this season (his most since 2000), he also has 27 saves and an ERA of 2.30.

Wagner's solid closing career

Save (no pun intended) for a poor season in 2000, Wagner has been a solid closing option every year since 1996 for the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies and the Mets. Currently sitting at sixth on the all-time list with 385 saves, Wagner will need only five more saves to tie retired reliever Dennis Eckersley for fifth all time when he returns from the DL. Wagner has had numerous great seasons during his career, including in 1999 with the Astros when he had 39 saves and a 1.57 ERA, and in 2003 when he had 44 saves and a 1.78 ERA.

Now 37 years old, injuries may be a little bit tougher for Wagner to recover from. Injuries hampered him last September during the Mets' late-season collapse. After the All-Star break, he converted 17 of 21 save opportunities, and he experienced back spasms which affected his performance late in the season. It's possible that these 15 days off could prevent another late-season breakdown, but owners need to be prepared for another falloff in production over the final six-plus weeks with Wagner.

2008 another solid one for Wagner

This season, though he has come under attack by the New York media, Wagner has been solid yet again. The seven blown saves are concerning, but with his 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, he is actually doing better than his career averages in both categories. Also, before the disabled list stint, he was on pace for 40 saves, a number that would've surpassed his save amount from last year (34) and matched the second-highest total of his career.

However, his strikeouts are down this season, which is a bit of concern considering how heavily he has relied on the strikeout in his career. This year, Wagner's strikeouts-per-nine-innings (K/9) ratio is less than 10 for the first time since his horrendous 2000 season, currently sitting at 9.96. Last season, it was at 10.54, while in 2006 it was at 11.70 K/9, so it has dropped each year he has been in New York.

Regardless of the number of strikeouts, Wagner has been a solid closing option this season. Pitching through his blown saves, Wagner has again established himself as one of the top closers in the NL. He currently has the third-most saves in the league, and of NL closers with 20 or more saves, Wagner has the second-best ERA along with the best WHIP.

Time for fill-in duty

Mets manager Jerry Manuel has said that he would probably be going with a closer-by-committee for the interim, with reliever Aaron Heilman getting the first chance. Heilman is 1-6 this season with a 5.67 ERA, and in his first ninth-inning appearance since Wagner's injury, Heilman gave up three runs while recording only one out. Luckily, the Mets had a four-run lead, and they brought in reliever Joe Smith to get one out, followed by left-handed reliever Scott Schoeneweis getting the last out for the save.

After giving Heilman the first shot, Manuel used Schoeneweis to open the ninth Thursday, Aug. 7, and he promptly surrendered a game-tying solo home run to San Diego Padres outfielder Jody Gerut, a left-handed hitter. Heilman then came on to get the seventh and eighth hitters in the lineup out; he was rewarded with a win when third baseman David Wright delivered a walk-off two-run homer.

It's interesting to note the team burned relievers Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano and Smith during the eighth inning. Sanchez has eight career saves, all of which came in 2005 with the Dodgers, and might have seemed like a logical successor to Wagner at one point. However, his velocity has been dropping (he topped out at 86 mph in a recent outing) and may be better suited for a low-pressure role. This season Sanchez is 5-1 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

The man who did not make an appearance in either game in which they held the lead was rookie reliever Eddie Kunz, who had 27 saves this season for Double-A Binghamton. In two innings with the Mets, Kunz has allowed two hits (one a solo home run to Padres outfielder to Chase Headley); the homer is the first he has allowed as a professional. While it seems risky to throw a rookie into the ninth-inning mix, Manuel has watched his veteran hurlers nearly blow two saves in as many chances. At this point Kunz may be their best option, regardless of his limited major league experience.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Wagner should be stashed on a DL or bench spot, as this injury is expected to only keep him out for the minimum amount of time.

If owners really need saves, Heilman would be still the correct add, with Kunz being a longer shot. However, if owners add Heilman, they should be prepared to take the bad with the good, as he has been highly inconsistent during the 2008 season.

Kunz is an unknown at this point, but he could get a few opportunities and should therefore be added in NL-only leagues. Kunz could also have some short-term value in deep mixed leagues if he's indeed given a shot at closing games.

Schoeneweis is not expected to see traditional save opportunities. However, as a lefty specialist, he could notch a save or two depending on how the opponents' lineup shakes out. It's tough to recommend him for fantasy purposes, regardless.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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