Impact Analysis: Mark Teixeira, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

August 5, 2008 @ 13:22:16

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Herija C. Green

During the 2007 season, then-Texas Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira was dealt to the Atlanta Braves along with reliever Ron Mahay (Kansas City Royals). He was swapped for a package of prospects that included catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was considered Atlanta's top prospect; pitcher Neftali Feliz, who's a combined 8-3 with a 2.39 in 22 minor league starts this season; and speedy infielder Elvis Andrus, who has 44 stolen bases in 92 games at Double-A Frisco.

Fast-forward to 2008, and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim acquired the slugger from Atlanta for first baseman Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek (2-7, 3.60 ERA in 50 minor league innings this year). While the Angels gave up less to land Teixeira, the 28-year-old remains among the upper echelon of fantasy first baseman, and his numbers should improve with the move back to the American League.

City of Angels

While Teixeira has enjoyed a solid season, it has fallen a bit short of the breakthrough campaign some felt he might have following his stellar numbers in 54 games with the Braves last year and impending free-agent status following the season. After posting a .317-17-56 line in 208 at-bats last season, Teixeira saw his average drop to .283 with just three more home runs in 173 more at-bats. His slugging percentage also dipped to .512 this year after a .615 mark with Atlanta last season, though his current number is on par with his final year-plus with the Rangers.

While Teixeira was surrounded by third baseman Chipper Jones (hamstring) and catcher Brian McCann (concussion) for much of the season, injuries have taken their toll on Atlanta's lineup. In his final game with the Braves, Teixeira hit third, protected by outfielder Mark Kotsay, who has four home runs to his credit in 264 at-bats this season. As a result of all the injuries, Teixeira saw fewer pitches to hit, which was clearly indicated by his 65 walks in 103 games with Atlanta. That put him on pace for a career-high 102 walks.

Given the injury woes of the Braves, a move to the West Coast may be just what the doctor ordered to allow Teixeira to post the type of production he provided during his 54-game stint with the Braves in 2007. The first positive is Anaheim's dangerous lineup. With Teixeira now batting in front of slugging outfielders Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter, pitchers in the AL West may be forced to throw Teixeira more strikes.

On top of that, while Angel Stadium is very similar in pitcher-friendliness to Turner Field, the quality of pitching that Teixeira will be facing could be lower. Instead of facing three of the better teams in the National League (the Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins and New York Mets), Teixeira will take his hacks against an Oakland Athletics team that dealt two of their top starters before the deadline, the out-of-contention and reeling Seattle Mariners, and the Texas Rangers, a team that sports an AL-worst 5.25 ERA.

Adding to the positives is the fact that Teixeira historically hits much better after the All-Star break. His career batting average jumps nearly 20 points after the break, and he has one more home run in more than 340 fewer at-bats.

Kotchman heads to the Braves

Teixeira was not the only first basemen involved in the deal. Kotchman, an early candidate to breakout and put up big numbers in the middle of the Angels lineup, heads to Atlanta in the midst of an extended slump.

After kicking off 2008 by belting six home runs, driving in 19 runs and hitting at a .326 clip in April, Kotchman has hit a wall. Since May 1, his average has dropped to .281, and he has just six home runs in his last 80 games.

The slippery slope may continue for Kotchman as well. While with the Angels, Kotchman faced inferior pitching talent within the division while hitting in the midst of a very powerful Angels lineup. In the NL East, the new Braves first basemen should generally see better starting pitching, and he will have to deal with arguably being one of the three best bats in a shallow Braves lineup (along with McCann and Jones).

Marek was the Angels' No. 6 prospect according to Baseball America. He has solid strikeout potential; he has fanned a combined 58 batters in 50 innings this season with Double-A Arkansas and Double-A Mississippi. The righty could join the Bravos next season, especially given the general ineffectiveness and health problems with the Braves bullpen this season.

Fantasy baseball outlook

For fantasy teams, the trade deadline is creeping up in many leagues. While the deadline approaches, now may be the best time to make a pitch for Teixeira. However, considering all the peripherals that point to a surge in the second-half of the year, managers may be unwilling to sell the slugger.

Kotchman, meanwhile, remains an option in deep mixed leagues and is a must-add in NL-only formats. While his declining numbers have caused his mixed-league stock to drop significantly, he's still worth retaining outside of shallow leagues.

Marek doesn't warrant consideration in single-year leagues but could be an option in deep AL-only leagues when he comes up, which likely won't be until next season, at earliest.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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