Impact Analysis: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox

August 4, 2008 @ 14:40:48

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Tim Heaney

The playful shenanigans, on-field acrobatics, off-field bullying and financially fueled tirades finally reached a boiling point for Boston Red Sox management Thursday, July 31. As the trade deadline approached, the Red Sox dealt future Hall of Fame outfielder Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-team deal that sent former Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Jason Bay to Boston.

From Boston, Pittsburgh received outfielder Brandon Moss and relief pitcher Craig Hansen. The Dodgers sacrificed third baseman Andy LaRoche and pitcher Bryan Morris to the Pirates' infinite quest for season-ending gold.

Welcome to the Bay State

The jury was out on Bay after a 2007 season that saw him hit .247 with 21 home runs, 84 RBIs and 78 runs scored in 538 at-bats after a consistent string of prior success. Since 2004, Bay had been a lock for a .280-plus average, 20-plus home runs and 80-plus RBIs before last year.

However, his performance this season has silenced the talking heads, and now with his presence in Boston, he can finally showcase his vast skills to a town that worships at the altar of baseball's gods. He has rebounded this year and had a .282-22-64 line with the Pirates before the swap.

He sports a career .376 on-base percentage and has maintained a solid lifetime .893 OPS; his penchant for reaching base undoubtedly caught the eye of Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein. In three games with Boston, he has gone 4-for-11 (.366) with one triple, one home run, three RBIs and six runs scored.

He possesses solid defensive skills and the speed to net 20-plus stolen bases; he swiped 21 in 2005 but has not had more than 11 in any other season. His gnawing flaw is the fact that he whiffs at an unfortunately reliable pace. Prior to this season, he notched four straight campaigns in which he struck out 125-plus times; he already has 89 strikeouts this year. He finished within the league's top 11 in whiffs in the past three seasons. It's more forgivable, though, when he hits higher than the torturous clip he disappointed fantasy owners with last season.

Unlike it was in Pittsburgh, Bay's presence in a Red Sox lineup that's stocked with some of the best hitters in the game will be well documented. Upon arriving in Boston, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Gonzaga University alum was promptly inserted into the No. 5 hole behind Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell; according to manager Terry Francona, he is expected to remain there for the foreseeable future. Over his career, Bay has hit .332 with 16 home runs, 66 RBIs and 69 runs scored in 340 at-bats in the fifth slot.

Bay's fantasy owners should welcome his transition from PNC Park and its 389-foot left center-field wall to Fenway Park and its infamous Green Monster that's only a 310-foot fly ball away from paydirt (or an easy single). In 217 at-bats in PNC Park this season, Bay hit a ridiculous number of dingers (15) and posted a sweet .931 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). As a right-handed hitter with the wrist movement of a cheetah, Bay - along with his owners - should be drooling uncontrollably at the opportunity to take his hacks with hopes of planting deep fly balls onto the Massachusetts Turnpike.

Sox drawer

The effect on Boston's lineup should be felt immediately, especially on outfielder J.D. Drew and designated hitter David Ortiz. Without Ramirez's .313 career average and 512 lifetime long balls, the Red Sox don't have as solid of an anchor between the No. 3 and No. 5 hitters. Ortiz, in essence, becomes the new Manny - he could be frequently pitched around so opposing hurlers can deal with Lowell, Bay and Drew. Since Ramirez's departure, Ortiz has gone 1-for-10 (.100) with four walks, and Drew has gone 3-for-11 (.278) with three walks.

Although Bay's bat is dangerous, it's not Manny's stick, and Bay's knack for fanning could lead opposing hurlers to pitch to him more aggressively or try to get him to chase more. This is not a certainty, but it may be a possible trend you should monitor as your league winds to an end.

In addition, Ramirez garnered a great deal of respect, even when he was not on his game. It's not likely that Bay will receive the same kind of reverence, at least initially. It will be interesting to see how pitchers approach him and others around him in that lineup.

Lowell saw success in the cleanup role when Ramirez missed time with an oblique strain last year, hitting .317 with four dingers and 30 RBIs in 126 at-bats there. He has a .290-1-2 line in eight games there this year.

Ahoy, maties!

The acquisition of Hansen will give the Pirates a live arm that encompasses all the tools needed to succeed in the bigs. He sports a devastating slider when he's on, but his lack of control (23 walks in 30 2/3 innings) evidently led to his departure from the cutthroat world of Boston. He's 1-4 this season with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP; he lost his first appearance with the Pirates Sunday, Aug. 3, against the Chicago Cubs.

However, with closer Matt Capps (shoulder) likely out until at least September and the Pirates sporting a committee setup in his place, Hansen has an opportunity to see ninth-inning duties. Although the 2005 first-round draft pick will likely remain in the setup mix for now, keep an eye on the situation. The 24-year-old was poised to be Boston's closer of the future until current Red Sox stopper Jonathan Papelbon came into the picture. If he receives a shot, Hansen will see far less pressure in Pittsburgh than in Boston.

Upon arriving in Pittsburgh, Moss was promptly inserted into the spot abandoned by Bay. Thus far for the Pirates, Moss has gone 2-for-8 (.250) with a solo home run and five strikeouts. For Boston, he was 23-for-78 (.295) with two home runs, 11 RBIs and seven runs scored; he was a somewhat promising youngster but was blocked by Ramirez and Drew at the corner outfield spots. According to general manager Neil Huntington, Moss is expected to play nearly every day for the time being. The 24-year-old possesses solid defensive prowess, a keen batting eye and decent pop.

Fantasy baseball outlook

As the dust settles on one of the largest trade deadline blockbusters in recent memory, the value of each player mentioned above sees a subtle increase. For Bay, he should see a bit of a boost in value due to being sewn into a Boston offense that's ranked third in all of baseball in batting average (.279) and fourth in runs scored (557). He remains an elite outfield option in all formats with the ability to progress for some time while raking with his eyes on the hitter-friendly Green Monster. His keeper league stock blossoms in his new digs.

Whispers about Hansen's utilization as Pittsburgh's closer remain just that for now, but the potential for him to fill some sort of interim closer role should keep his name on the tip of closer-hungry owners' tongues. The 6-foot-6, 230-pounder has the potential - he definitely has the arm and build - to succeed in the role. However, his propensity to fold under pressure shines brightly; hopefully a change of scenery can alter that. He should be owned in all NL-only setups and be placed on watch lists in deep mixed universes.

Moss' utility is a necessity in NL-only formats and could provide deep mixed owners with a decent bench filler. Moss was one of Boston's better prospects but never received a true chance to elaborate on his abilities in a crowded Boston outfield. Except for speed, he possesses many of the same traits as former Boston outfielder David Murphy, who went to the Texas Rangers in last year's debacle trade for reliever Eric Gagne. Keep tabs on the pesky outfielder because playing time in Pittsburgh could snowball into a bevy of production down the line.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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