Impact Analysis: Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

August 1, 2008 @ 12:57:53

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 13th in the National League in runs scored through 108 games, but the weakness of the NL West division has given them a shot at the postseason. Hoping to shore up their anemic offense for a playoff run, the residents of Chavez Ravine acquired third baseman Casey Blake Saturday, July 26, from the Cleveland Indians for a pair of minor league prospects.

The disappointing play of platooning rookies Andy LaRoche and Blake DeWitt, plus the always banged-up Nomar Garciaparra (knee), at third base sent the Dodgers shopping for a more reliable replacement at the hot corner. Blake's addition made DeWitt and LaRoche unnecessary; they were sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas around the same time. The Dodgers then swapped LaRoche to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the blockbuster deal that landed them star outfielder Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox). Dodgers manager Joe Torre has already proclaimed Blake his everyday third baseman.

The Tribe began the year with high expectations, but injuries and poor on-field performance have conspired to turn the team into sellers this trading season. This latest move nets them Triple-A pitcher John Meloan and Single-A catcher Carlos Santana. Santana is considered the gem of the deal, but the Indians are hoping that Meloan can serve as a future member of their bullpen.

What does Blake bring?

Blake's first consistent playing time came in 2003, and he has been a solid, if unspectacular, ballplayer since. Arguably his best season came in 2004 when he hit .271 with 28 homers, 88 RBIs and 93 runs scored. However, he has never stroked higher than .282 in a full season while averaging 21 home runs and 72 RBIs from 2003-2007.

Blake is a career .266 hitter, but 2008 is shaping up to be one of his best years. Batting .295 with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs, the 34-year-old adds an experienced and respected presence to the young Dodgers clubhouse. Furthermore, Blake's .391 batting average with runners in scoring position this year gives the Dodgers an excellent clutch bat near the end of their lineup.

Blake also had a respectable .285 clip with 11 homers and 45 RBIs against the National League before the trade. He has seemed comfortable at Dodger Stadium in his career, with a .353 average (12-for-34), three RBIs and a .405 on-base percentage.

The bad news for Dodgers fans and fantasy owners is that there is a good chance Blake will not be able to maintain his present pace. Blake's .355 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is significantly higher than his career .308 BABIP, indicating a possible regression in his batting average as the season moves forward.

Additionally, his career .783 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) is much lower than his .837 OPS so far this year. Since it is not normal for 34-year-olds to have breakout seasons, you have to wonder if Blake is capable of keeping it up.

Upsetting the status quo

The underperformance of the Dodgers' previous third base platoon is what drove the need for Blake's services. DeWitt took a nosedive after winning National League Rookie of the Month honors in May, hitting .200 with only six RBIs over his next 40 games. DeWitt's demotion to Triple-A ends his first stint in the majors, but the Dodgers remain hopeful that some time in the minors will aid in his progression.

Called up from Triple-A Las Vegas June 10, LaRoche was hardly better. With a .203 batting average and only two home runs in 59 at-bats, LaRoche inspired little confidence amongst the Dodgers brass. However, he was the team's No. 2 prospect before the season, according to Baseball America.

Rollin' into Cleveland

The switch-hitting Santana has a chance to be a superstar catcher someday, but the Dodgers' situation behind the plate made his services expendable. With 25-year-old All-Star Russell Martin holding down catching duties for the foreseeable future and Double-A catcher Lucas May blocking the road, trading Santana made sense for the team.

The Dodgers' loss is the Indians' gain - the 22-year-old Santana was destroying the ball at high Single-A Inland Empire. He led all minor leaguers with 96 RBIs at the time of the deal and is batting .321 with 14 homers. On top of that, his 63-to-69 strikeout-to-walk ratio indicates the kind of plate discipline that could earn him a trip to the majors someday. Catcher Victor Martinez (elbow) might be blocking his way, though, unless the team trades him or changes his position in the future.

Meloan is the lesser component of the deal but is still considered a valuable piece of the Indians' future. He utilizes an 88-92 mph fastball and a 12-to-6 curveball to blow away hitters to the tune of 337 strikeouts in 263 2/3 minor league innings. His 60 walks in 107 innings this season is an alarming warning sign of control problems. However, the Indians hope that he will be able to contribute as a setup reliever in the years to come as he polishes his stock at Triple-A Buffalo. With the shoddy bullpen work the Indians have seen from relievers Masahide Kobayashi, Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt, Meloan could come up this season to aid a hapless relief group.

The trade of Blake opens up full-time jobs for third baseman Andy Marte and first baseman Ryan Garko. The duo is expected to start at the corners in 2009, and with this season all but surrendered the Indians will give them long leashes for the rest of the year.

Fantasy outlook

Blake's fantasy value remains stable. Fantasy owners in NL-only leagues should use some money from their Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) to acquire Blake without over-bidding. He will not single-handedly carry your club to a championship, but he could help NL-only players at the thin third base position or as a corner infielder in deep mixed leagues. Keep in mind that he could be due for a statistical regression, though.

Those in shallow mixed leagues can probably keep Blake on their watch list. He has eligibility at first and third base in most leagues.

Managers in single-year leagues can cut DeWitt outright. LaRoche gains value in NL-only leagues after being traded because he's the Pirates' starting third baseman for now. Keeper league owners should stay patient with LaRoche, especially now that he has an opening to see regular at-bats.

Santana doesn't have any value in yearly leagues, but owners in keeper leagues should definitely take a look at him. Granted Santana has only excelled offensively in Single-A, but his numbers are scary good at a traditionally weak position. Meloan could be a sleeper for saves either this year or in 2009 because the Indians bullpen has proven to be ineffective; scoop him up and stash him on your AL-only squad.

Marte and Garko gain value in AL-only setups because of the elimination of strict competition but should still be avoided in mixed leagues.

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