Impact Analysis: Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

July 31, 2008 @ 15:50:24

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

With the non-waiver trade deadline approaching, the Atlanta Braves had to decide this week whether they were buyers or sellers. They decided to sell, a stance that may have been helped after learning that ace Tim Hudson (elbow) will likely be out for the season, and probably longer, after injuring his arm.

Hudson was placed on the disabled list Monday, July 28, after undergoing an MRI that revealed major damage in his ulnar collateral ligament. Hudson was on record saying that he felt fine and that his elbow didn't hurt, but the tests showed problems in the arm, prompting Atlanta to shut him down.

Hudson met with two doctors who were in agreement that he needs Tommy John surgery. Hudson is electing to forego surgery for now, instead hoping to strengthen his arm through exercise. If he opts for surgery (as is usually expected with a major ligament injury), Hudson will be lost for the remainder of this season and maybe nearly all of 2009.

Hudson's resurgence

Prior to this injury, Hudson had been simply stellar this year. The 33-year-old hurler was sitting on a 3.17 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 85 strikeouts en route to an 11-7 record. Hudson was sixth in WHIP and 12th in ERA in the NL before going down.

Traded from the Oakland Athletics to his hometown Braves after the 2004 season, the Columbus, Ga., native initially struggled in Atlanta. He posted some of the worst numbers of his career, including posting WHIPs of 1.35 (2005) and 1.44 (2006), his two highest figures ever. The 4.86 ERA he posted in 2006 had many wondering what had happened to the former ace and whether he had lost his pitching touch.

However, last season Hudson turned it around, partially helped by returning to a weightlifting program he used with the A's. Hudson posted his best numbers since 2003 during a 2007 season in which he went 16-10 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. His strikeouts went down to 132 in '07 from 141 the previous season. He totaled 103 in '04 and 115 in '05, his first season in Atlanta. Conversely, he averaged 159.2 strikeouts per season and 6.81 per nine innings in his first five years in the league.

Many fantasy owners drafted him this season with the expectation that he would build upon a solid 2007, and he had rewarded owners who took a chance on him. Hudson averaged 5.39 strikeouts per nine innings this season, a slight increase from his '07 rate of 5.30.

He also continued to show a renewed ability to retire hitters without relying on the strikeout. In 2007 his rate of groundballs to flyballs skyrocketed to 2.76-to-1 from 2.22-to-1 the year before; it was at 2.51-to-1 this year before his injury.

Hudson's replacements

The Braves' three starters currently on the DL - Hudson, Tom Glavine (elbow) and John Smoltz (shoulder) - have a combined 661 wins between them. With the way righties Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo have pitched, their rotation could have been quite formidable. Instead, the Braves now have more questions than answers in their pitching staff.

The Braves sent out 24-year-old righty Charlie Morton July 28. It wasn't pretty as he was shelled to the tune of eight earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. It is clear that the Atlanta rotation has some holes that won't be easily filled. It is likely that Atlanta will address their rotation issues from inside the organization.

Southpaw Mike Hampton, seemingly a permanent member of the DL, made his first major league start in almost three years Saturday, July 26, giving up six earned runs in four innings. He gains a rotation spot by default.

Pitcher Chuck James could receive the start Friday, Aug. 1, against the Milwaukee Brewers. In 23 major league innings (five starts) this year, the southpaw has an 8.22 ERA with 17 strikeouts and 16 walks. He's 4-5 with a 2.48 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts) at Triple-A Richmond this season.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The outlook doesn't look very good for Hudson or his fantasy owners. If he pitches, he is pitching with major ligament damage that may affect his performance. If he elects for surgery, he is out for 12-plus months. This is a no-win situation for fantasy owners.

However, owners could hold on to Hudson, as long as they have the room, until he makes the official surgery announcement. There's a slim chance the Braves may let him pitch if he says he is OK to do it, but given their selling mentality at the trade deadline, they probably won't risk his health for next year. If he opts to pitch through it, he would have to show positive signs before owners should even consider putting him back in.

This should be resolved within the next few days, with the expected choice being surgery. Owners should obviously cut Hudson loose at that point.

If Hudson chooses Tommy John surgery, his value for next year's fantasy drafts will be adversely affected; he should be avoided unless he can be grabbed in the final round as a flier pick and stashed throughout the season.

Morton, Hampton and James are purely NL-only options given their performance, or, in Hampton's case, fragility; they're too risky to play in deep mixed setups. Even owners in NL-only formats could consider them unreliable.

One waiver wire replacement that could help for the time being is Tampa Bay Rays starter Edwin Jackson, who has a 4.20 ERA on the season but has improved in the last month. He has a 3.77 ERA in 28 2/3 July innings. He matches up against the Cleveland Indians in Tampa and Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field, a pitcher-friendly venue, next week, making him a good short-term substitute.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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