Impact Analysis: Detroit Tigers bullpen

July 30, 2008 @ 15:57:58

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Nicholas Minnix and Tim Heaney

For a team in the thick of a playoff race, featuring a soft-tossing, erratic pitcher in the closer role is never a good idea. Thus, after nearly three years of reliever Todd Jones' ninth-inning woes, Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland opted to oust him from ninth-inning duties Sunday, July 27, in favor of Fernando Rodney. What remains to be seen is whether this is a permanent move or if Rodney is simply a temporary solution to a major problem for an AL Central contender.

What took so long?

If anything in life is certain, it is the fact that Jones was certainly not the sexy choice for Leyland. Jones lacked overpowering stuff, sported a mile-high WHIP and showed a consistent regression over the past three years. His faults caused fantasy owners to wonder when a change at the back end of Detroit's 'pen would finally be made.

The statistics, if nothing else, suggested that Jones was miscast. Despite 319 career saves, his chance of successfully closing games appeared to be a crapshoot, specifically in 2008. When acquired in '06, Jones pitched well enough for Detroit, finishing with 37 saves, a 3.94 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His numbers slipped in 2007, as his 38 saves were coupled with a 4.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

This season proved to be the nail on the proverbial coffin. Despite recording 18 saves, Jones' ERA, at 4.99, was approaching the territory of teammate Dontrelle Willis. With a 1.54 WHIP and .293 batting average against, the now former Tigers closer seemed to be pitching more like a mop-up reliever than a true closer. Jones' recent struggles, including three blown saves and 10 earned runs allowed in his past 12 appearances (10 1/3 innings), forced Leyland to make the switch.

Taking over the duties from Jones, for the time being, is Rodney. Virtually the opposite type of pitcher of Jones, Rodney sports a mid-90s fastball and a deceiving changeup. The result has been 220 strikeouts in 230 2/3 innings pitched. In comparison, Jones managed a paltry 46 strikeouts in his past 101 innings.

This season will not mark the first time Rodney has closed, either. In 2005, filling in for the injured Troy Percival – who now closes for the Tampa Bay Rays – Rodney saved nine games. In 2006, he notched seven saves, four of them in April, because Jones began the season on the disabled list. Rodney has 21 saves in his career.

However, this year has not been a cakewalk for Rodney. His ERA is 5.40, and he has walked 11 batters in an injury-shortened 16 2/3 innings. He suffered from shoulder tendonitis and was restricted to the disabled list to start the year. Couple that with the fact that Rodney also had forearm and shoulder issues in 2007, and there is no doubt that Leyland needs some sort of backup plan.

Is Zumaya, Farnsworth or Perry knocking on the door?

Enter relievers Joel Zumaya, Kyle Farnsworth and Ryan Perry. For the time being, the three can be considered dark-horse candidates to take over the role. However, the trio is probably only worthy of being placed on fantasy watch lists in mixed leagues.

Zumaya has one of the more electrifying fastballs in baseball. He is consistently clocked at around 100 mph. In fact, had Zumaya not suffered a freak injury that resulted in a separated shoulder over the offseason, it's conceivable that he may have dethroned Jones at some point this year.

However, Zumaya has not pitched extensively since 2006 due to the shoulder problem and a ruptured tendon in his hand last year. In addition, he has recently been experiencing tightness in his right triceps, something Leyland initially deemed a cause for concern. However, the injury doesn't appear to be serious; Zumaya pitched 1 2/3 innings Tuesday, July 29.

Perhaps the health issues have had an effect, but Zumaya's lack of control has resulted in 17 walks in Zumaya's first 19 1/3 innings this year, not numbers desired from a backend guy. The long layoffs can probably accept part of the blame, but Leyland said that Zumaya must mix up his pitches more often to be effective.

Zumaya depends on his fastball too much, and as a result, a lot of hitters are sitting on it. Leyland would like to see the flamethrower command his breaking pitch more effectively. The veteran skipper noted that Zumaya's triceps soreness likely is caused by throwing curveballs, but no one expects the tightness to linger. This is a positive sign for Zumaya, since he must learn to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

The Tigers added an interesting wrinkle when they acquired Farnsworth from the New York Yankees for catcher Ivan Rodriguez. He provides the club with a fairly dependable arm in the 'pen as well as insurance in case the Tigers' experiment with Rodney, or whomever else they may try as closer, doesn't work out. Farnsworth has 27 career saves; in fact, he was the fill-in at closer for Percival in 2005 before Rodney. Farnsworth saves six games, with a 2.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, in Percival's stead before Detroit shipped him to Atlanta, where he notched another 10 saves with a 1.98 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings.

Farnsworth is 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 43 K's in 44 1/3 innings this year. Like Rodney, Farnsworth can fan them (almost exactly one strikeout per inning in his career) but has had problems because of the walk (more than four per nine innings, lifetime). Unlike Rodney (or Zumaya), Farnsworth has been relatively healthy throughout his career. Farnsworth is also not considered the most reliable hurler in pressure situations, but the Tigers liked him and took some heat for dealing him in the midst of his best season.

Perry, meanwhile, will probably not even see action in 2008. Taken 21st overall in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, Perry only recently threw his first pitches as a professional. In three combined innings for Detroit's rookie league affiliate and Class A Lakeland, the right-hander has allowed one hit, walked one and struck out four.

Perry originally thought he might receive a September call-up. However, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said that he will most likely stay in the minors; he'll likely remain a reliever, but the Tigers haven't ruled out using him as a starting pitcher. Thus, while his track record at the University of Arizona (5-1 with a 1.50 ERA while in the Wildcats' bullpen this season) is impressive, he is more of a prospect for 2009.

A battered group of arms

To make matters worse for Leyland, his bullpen has been slowly but surely depleted throughout the year. Reliever Aquilino Lopez, along with Rodney and Zumaya, has spent time on the disabled list; relief pitcher Freddy Dolsi (shoulder) only recently became available again. Reliever Denny Bautista opened the season on the DL, too, missing the first two months. Despite his 3.32 ERA in 19 innings, he was designated for assignment and later dealt to the Pirates; his 1.53 WHIP perhaps spoke of looming danger.

As for the rotation, from Willis' and Justin Verlander's early-season struggles to an inability by Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson to pitch effectively, Tigers relievers have been called upon far too often.

Fantasy baseball outlook

For now, Detroit's closer role belongs to Rodney. Zumaya hasn't been reliable enough to trust in such situations. Perry will most likely still be in the minors in September. The newest face, Farnsworth, could be an immediate alternative should Rodney struggle. His acquisition likely signals that the club has little intention of giving Jones another shot, should others falter. No other Tigers reliever has the track record to take over, although Dolsi was briefly mentioned earlier in the season as a candidate for the ninth.

Rodney should be scooped up in all formats, while Jones should be cut, as his ratios and strikeouts per nine innings are far from desirable. Farnsworth or Zumaya may be worth a speculative add in deep leagues; both should already be owned in AL-only leagues. Perry, meanwhile, may be placed on watch lists, but his true value should only be restricted to full-retention keeper or dynasty-like leagues.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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