Impact Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates trade aftermath

July 29, 2008 @ 13:40:44

By Tim Piotrowski
Edited by Herija C. Green

With the recent trade of outfielder Xavier Nady and relief pitcher Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees, the Pittsburgh Pirates now have to fill holes in both right field and the closer position with players they currently have in the organization for now. The Pirates have recalled outfielder Steve Pearce from Triple-A Indianapolis to take over in the outfield, but they also have top outfield prospect Andrew McCutchen waiting in the wings, as well as outfielder Nyjer Morgan.

As far as the closer, the team is considering using relief pitchers John Grabow, Tyler Yates and Denny Bautista as potential stopgaps until closer Matt Capps (shoulder) is able to return to the team, which could be in early September. In return for Marte and Nady, the Pirates received outfielder Jose Tabata and pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, Jeffrey Karstens and Daniel McCutchen.

Replacing Marte

Following the departure of Marte, Grabow appears to be in line to get the first crack at the closing job. He has had a pretty decent season so far, going 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 47 appearances. He has struck out 44 and walked 22 in 52 2/3 innings. He has been effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. Lefties are batting .229 against him with righties hitting .232. The Pirates have used him as more than a specialist, and Grabow has been a valuable member of the bullpen.

The home run ball has been a problem as Grabow has given up eight so far this season, which ties a career high. He has been largely mediocre during his last career though, posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of his four full seasons. While he appears to be the likely successor to Marte, there has been speculation that Grabow could be the next person to be traded, so fantasy owners will have to monitor his situation as any move out of Pittsburgh would almost certainly destroy any value he holds as Pittsburgh's likely closer.

Yates has been a good addition to the Pirates bullpen since the start of the season, but he has a few negatives going for him. In 49 appearances this season, Yates is 4-2 with a 4.13 ERA and an ugly 1.61 WHIP. One of Yates' negatives is his 37-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52 1/3 innings pitched this season, which is a terrible number for a reliever. He's also doing much better against right-handed hitters than lefties, with southpaws hitting .303 and right-handers hitting .220. He only has three career saves, but he would appear to be next in line to get the job if Grabow falters or is traded.

Bautista has been more of a setup man this year for both the Pirates and the Detroit Tigers. He has a 3.41 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP, along with 26 strikeouts and 20 walks. He hasn't walked a batter in his last four outings and has pitched two innings in his last two games. He doesn't have a save in 63 career appearances.

Capps (shoulder) has been on the disabled list since July 2 with shoulder bursitis. He pitched well this season for the Bucs, going 2-3 with 17 saves, a 3.12 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has struck out 29 batters and walked only five in 40 1/3 innings. When his injury occurred, he was expected to miss six to eight weeks. He is currently doing a rehab program and could be throwing off a mound in the next few weeks. Capps is expected to return to the bullpen sometime in September, though he may not get his closer's job back until next season.

The x-factor

Pearce has been given the first opportunity to replace Nady in the outfield. In five games with the Pirates this season, he is 2-for-9. He was hitting .258 with 11 home runs and 54 RBIs in 93 games with Triple-A Indianapolis this season. Considered one of the Pirates best positional prospects, Pearce shot up the minor leagues last season, starting the year with Class A Lynchburg, then moving on to Double-A Altoona and eventually Indianapolis, hitting a combined .333 with 31 home runs, 113 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. He finished the year with the Pirates, batting .294 with 13 runs and six RBIs in 68 at-bats last season.

McCutchen was rated as the team's best prospect by Baseball America entering 2008. He is having a solid season in Triple-A, hitting .276 with nine home runs, 40 RBIs and 26 stolen bases in 102 games. A likely reason he was not promoted when Nady was traded is because the team wants to give him a full year at Triple-A Indianapolis so he can work on some things. However, if a player gets injured or outfielder Jason Bay follows Nady out of town, McCutchen may be the next player to be called up. He almost certainly will be a September callup so the Pirates can see how he handles the big leagues.

Morgan saw some time with the Pirates this season but did not have much success at the plate, hitting .143 with two RBIs and 12 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. He has done better in Triple-A though, batting .276 with 19 RBIs and 31 stolen bases in 63 games for Indianapolis. Morgan did show he could play in the major leagues last season when he posted a .299 average with a home run, seven RBIs and seven stolen bases in 28 games. The one thing going against Morgan is that he's 28 years old, while Pearce is 25 and McCutchen is only 21.

Outfielder Jason Michaels is also in the mix, but at 32 he is pretty well established as a fourth or fifth outfielder in the majors. He doesn't figure to see a lot of at-bats down the stretch with the Pirates trying to get a look at some younger talent.

The new arrivals

Tabata (hamstring), viewed as one of the Yankees' top prospects, is considered to be the centerpiece of this deal for the Pirates. The 19-year-old has struggled this season, hitting .248 with three home runs, 36 RBIs and 10 stolen bases in 79 games for Double-A Trenton. He's unlikely to make an appearance for the Pirates in 2008.

As for the pitchers, Ohlendorf has worked out of the bullpen for the Yankees this season, going 1-1 with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in 25 appearances. He has struck out 36 in 40 innings but has allowed seven home runs. He is set to make a few starts for Triple-A Indianapolis but will likely be put in the Pirates rotation after that. Karstens (6-4, 3.80 ERA for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) has been added to the Pirates starting rotation and is set to debut with Pirates Friday, August 1. McCutchen has promise as a starting pitcher down the road, going 8-10 with a 3.27 ERA in 21 combined starts with Trenton, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Indianapolis. He could make an appearance this season for the Pirates, but that is not a certainty.

Fantasy baseball outlook

From a fantasy perspective, Grabow is the big winner in this trade. Owners should grab him in all formats for a short-term bump in saves and hope he is still with the Pirates after Thursday, July 31. If he succeeds early, he should have about a month's worth of save opportunities until Capps returns. For owners who miss out on Grabow, Yates and Bautista are possible flier options in case Grabow falters early as the interim closer. They're safer for NL-only leagues.

Pearce is only a good pickup in NL-only leagues for now with owners in deeper leagues keeping an eye on him. Owners can consider stashing Andrew McCutchen in deeper NL-only leagues, whereas Morgan is not worth a roster spot.

None of the players the Pirates got in the trade are expected to have much fantasy value this season, but Karstens and Ohlendorf are worth monitoring in NL-only formats when they become members of the rotation.

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Tim Piotrowski
Piotrowski has been a Hot Off the Wire analyst since 2007.

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