Impact Analysis: Ray Durham, Milwaukee Brewers

July 25, 2008 @ 13:47:42

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Tim Heaney

The Milwaukee Brewers look determined to end their 26-year playoff drought. Just two weeks after acquiring ace pitcher CC Sabathia, the Brew Crew added more depth to their roster Sunday, July 20, by picking up veteran second baseman Ray Durham from the San Francisco Giants. The price of Durham's services was speedy Single-A outfielder Darren Ford and Triple-A left-hander Steve Hammond.

This latest move by the Brewers has stirred speculation regarding the status of incumbent second baseman Rickie Weeks. Expectations for the 25-year-old have been high since his brief major league debut in 2003, but injuries and poor performance have combined to help prevent his breakout. Hitting only .226 this season, Weeks is struggling at the plate, which likely contributed to the Brewers' acquisition of Durham.

Before the All-Star break, Weeks hit just .217 with eight homers and 24 RBIs. In July he has picked things up, though, with a .274-2-10 line and a .348 clip so far in the second half.

Durham joins the up-and-coming Brewers after spending almost six years with the Giants. The 36-year-old veteran and two-time All-Star became expendable as the Giants have shifted their attention to rebuilding with young players.

A career .277 hitter, the switch-hitting Durham was picked up by the Brewers primarily to back up Weeks and to provide a left-handed bat off the bench. As of now, Durham is not expected to see a significant amount of playing time unless Weeks goes into a prolonged slump at the plate.

Untapped potential

Weeks' upside has excited Brewers fans and fantasy owners ever since he was chosen second overall by the Brewers in the 2003 draft. The 2003 Baseball America College Player of the Year was considered an exceptional five-tool talent, with both power and speed. Weeks' breakout has been anticipated by both the Brewers and fantasy owners for some time.

So far, Weeks has failed to live up to his potential. Since 2005, he has been hampered by major injuries to his thumb and wrist and most recently a sprained left knee, with the latter landing him on the DL earlier this year. Weeks has yet to play a full season for the Brewers and hasn't appeared in more than 118 games. Drafted by many fantasy owners this year as a top-10 second baseman, Weeks' .226 batting average, nine home runs, 32 RBIs and 14 steals have not returned that investment so far.

A solid veteran

Batting .293 at the time of his acquisition, Durham was quietly putting together a respectable season for the Giants before the deal that sent him to Milwaukee. Though his three home runs and six stolen bases are hardly the stuff of fantasy legend, his 43 runs scored and 32 RBIs are adequate for many fantasy owners in deeper leagues that require middle infielders.

The main source of Durham's value to the Brewers comes in his ability to bat left-handed. With first baseman Prince Fielder the only lefty in the Brewers' everyday lineup, the addition of Durham gives manager Ned Yost more flexibility in late-game situations. Furthermore, the Brewers are hoping that Weeks will take advantage of Durham's experience to assist his own development into a front-line second baseman.

Who plays second?

Yost was clear when asked about who will serve as the Brewers' everyday second baseman, even if he did leave the situation open. "I'll play Ray a couple of days a week, maybe," said Yost. "We'll just see how it goes. I'm not setting anything in stone. We'll take it day by day." Despite the elasticity of this statement, what is certain is that Weeks has started three of the four games since the trade.

Given the Brewers' investment in Weeks, it is a good bet that he will continue to see the lion's share of playing time at second base. The determining factor will probably be Weeks' performance at the plate; both players are mediocre in the field, so the team likely would rather keep the better bat in the game. In three games since the team acquired Durham, Weeks is 6-for-13 (.462) with one home run, five RBIs and three runs scored. These numbers suggest that Weeks could be motivated by the possibility of losing his job.

On the other hand, if Weeks sinks back into his underachieving ways, the Brewers will have little choice but to slot Durham into the lineup on a regular basis. To date, Weeks' inability to get on base consistently has hurt the team, and it almost certainly sent them after Durham. At his age Durham is not the long-term answer for the Brewers, but his consistency and experience could be crucial in the stretch run.

The prospects

The lightning-fast Ford stole 48 bases at Single-A Brevard County before the trade and has already swiped two bags in three games with high Single-A San Jose. He's very raw offensively, though, as shown in his cumulative .227 this season.

Hammond went 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA for Double-A Huntsville this season. He went 0-4 with a 7.41 ERA at Triple-A Nashville before the trade. He tossed a scoreless inning in his first outing with Triple-A Fresno. With his lack of overpowering stuff, he projects more as a reliever than a starter despite his 19 combined minor league starts this season.

Fantasy outlook

Weeks is a must-own in all deep fantasy leagues. With second base being one of the shallowest positions in fantasy baseball, even a moderate increase in production from Weeks would do wonders for his value in all formats.

Weeks' recent outburst at the dish opens up an intriguing possibility for fantasy owners. It is feasible that Durham's acquisition has sparked Weeks' immense talent into finally blossoming. If that is the case, there is only a short window in which his services can be acquired cheaply or on the free-agent list in some shallow mixed leagues; another week or two of productivity like the last few days will send his value soaring.

Fantasy owners should also keep in mind Weeks' 2007 first half/second half splits. He went from a .221-5-19 line and a .720 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the first half to .251-11-17 with a .903 OPS in the second. He hit nine of his 16 homers in September. Weeks also managed only nine steals in the first half but swiped 16 in the second. If that trend holds true for 2008, you don't want to be caught watching your fantasy opponents reap the rewards.

Remember, though, that Weeks hit above .239 in only one of his four full seasons (he hit .279 in 2006); his average is a detriment to your team mark despite all of his other contributions. Make sure you have a backup option if Weeks' batting average tanks again. If that happens, the Brewers could turn to their own No. 2 option: Durham.

Durham's value is limited to NL-only leagues for now. As long as Weeks continues to rake, Durham's playing time will be sharply limited to pinch-hit and late-inning duties. However, considering Weeks' injury history and previous struggles at the plate, there is a chance that Durham could see more game action sometime this season, including the occasional start against a right-handed pitcher. Durham has a long injury history, too. Monitor the situation closely over the next few weeks to see how things develop; he would be a good middle infielder in deep mixed leagues with an increased workload.

Ford and Hammond have almost no value in fantasy leagues this season. Ford's game-changing speed should make him an intriguing option in extremely deep keeper leagues, but he likely won't sniff the big leagues for a few years. Hammond would at best be a play in deep NL-only leagues either late this season or for 2009 if he becomes part of a major league bullpen.

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