Impact Analysis: Washington Nationals bullpen

July 24, 2008 @ 15:16:19

By Keith Hernandez
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

The Washington Nationals traded closer Jon Rauch to the Arizona Diamondbacks for infielder Emilio Bonifacio Tuesday, July 22. Rauch was solid with the Nationals, posting an ERA of 2.98 with 17 saves and 44 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings pitched. Initially the setup man, he was put into the closer role due to the shoulder and biceps injuries to closer Chad Cordero (shoulder).

Rauch recorded ERAs of 3.61 in 2007 and 3.35 in 2006. Last season he led the majors with 88 appearances; he struck out 71 hitters and walked only 21 while tallying 33 holds.

The departure of Rauch gives righty Joel Hanrahan the first shot at being closer while increasing the roles of relief pitchers Saul Rivera and Luis Ayala.

Hanrahan

The hard-throwing Hanrahan has a 3.94 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings pitched. He has a 1.33 WHIP with 32 walks. Opponents are only hitting .222 and posting a .358 on-base percentage against him.

Hanrahan has averaged 8.81 strikeouts per nine innings in his short major league career and 7.85 in the minors, which indicates that he has the stuff to be a closer. He has a high-90s fastball that gives him the power to reach back and record K's.

Hanrahan does not have a single save in his professional career. In fact, just a year ago he was a minor league starting pitcher. Before coming up to the majors last year, he had not worked out of the bullpen since 2005 at Double-A Jacksonville with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The others

Rivera could also be in the mix to receive some save opportunities during the rest of the 2008 season. He has tallied 39 strikeouts and 24 walks while posting an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.34. He has a 3-4 record on the year with four blown saves. Rivera has a total of four saves in his career but has blown eight chances - none of which came in the ninth inning.

Ayala has a 5.77 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings pitched. Like Rivera, he has blown four saves this season, and he owns a 1-6 record. Acta might be hesitant to turn to Ayala in the ninth.

Due to his recent performance (7.94 ERA in both June and July) Acta is even considering removing him from his eighth-inning duties. When asked if it was an option, Acta's response was: "Absolutely, because he hasn't been successful there." The club's pitching coach, Randy St. Claire, noted numerous problems with Ayala's mechanics, too. This doesn't exactly give Ayala much chance of challenging for saves.

Reliever Jesus Colome has six career saves. This season, he has 40 K's in 45 1/3 innings; the problem is his 5.36 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Nats haven't mentioned him as a possibility to close, so a few things would probably have to go wrong for him to be a factor.

Another infielder

Bonifacio comes to Washington and is now considered their second baseman of the future. The speedy infielder had a .167 average with two RBIs and a stolen base in just 12 at-bats with the Diamondbacks this season. He will start out with the Nationals' Triple-A Columbus club but could be recalled before the end of the season. He hit .302 with a homer, 29 RBIs and 17 stolen bases at Triple-A Tucson this year.

He has been praised for his speed on the basepaths and range at second base. Bonifacio has stolen 40 or more bases in his last four years in the minor leagues and has a .283 career minor league batting average.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Hanrahan should be picked up immediately in all formats and figures to be a No. 3 or No. 4 fantasy closer. Hanrahan also has a better fastball than the other two relievers, which makes him a better candidate to close. He could be a productive addition in keeper leagues since the Nats might not bring Cordero back next season, meaning Hanrahan could be a long-term solution at the back end if he proves himself this year.

Rivera and Ayala have minimal fantasy value and should only be considered in NL-only formats. Colome should be avoided, and Ayala may not be far behind him considering recent developments in the nation's capital.

Bonifacio's fantasy value may not be relevant aside from NL-only leagues this year, but he could make an impact in the stolen base category next season if he earns the starting job. However, even though Bonifacio has upside, the Nationals' logjam with infielders Ronnie Belliard and Felipe Lopez might delay his arrival a bit.

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Keith Hernandez

Keith, an editor with KFFL, joined the team as a Hot off the Wire analyst in 2008 and has been playing fantasy sports since 2005. He is involved in MLB, NFL and NASCAR content. He graduated from the University of California-San Diego in 2005 with a B.A. in Communications and was a four-year starter as a member of the baseball program.

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