Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Potential third-year and fourth-year breakout WRs

July 24, 2008 @ 14:25:27

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Every so often, a rookie receiver stands out. Last year, Kansas City Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe was the best with 70 receptions for 995 yards and five touchdowns. In 2006, it was Marques Colston of the New Orleans Saints (70 catches, 1,038, eight touchdowns). In 2005, though, not a single rookie receiver topped 600 yards. The leading rookie receiver in 2005 was Reggie Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles (43 receptions, 571 yards, four touchdowns).

The underachieving rookies of 2006 are now entering their third season, which is, developmentally, a "make or break" year for the receiver position. While there are exceptions (like Colston) to the notion that receivers need two or three seasons to mature, the majority of National Football League receivers have their first breakout campaign in their third or fourth year. Below, we'll analyze five star wideouts whose careers followed the "third-year" trajectory. Next, we'll take a look at some of the possible Colston-esque exceptions. We'll conclude by reviewing the current crop of third- and fourth-year pros, assessing which ones are likeliest to help your fantasy team win a title.

Supporting cases

Recent history

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith had no receiving touchdowns as a rookie in 2001, catching 10 passes for 154 yards. In his second season, Smith recorded 54 receptions for 872 yards and three touchdowns. It was a solid sophomore effort, but it wasn't fantasy starter material. Only in his third season - 88 receptions, 1,110 yards and seven scores - Smith established himself with fantasy owners.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals - In 2001, when he was a rookie, Houshmandzadeh caught 21 passes for 228 yards and did not score. In 2002, Houshmandzadeh tallied 41 balls for 492 yards and scored only once. In his third season, he missed most of the year with a hamstring injury. However, Houshmandzadeh became a fantasy factor in his fourth year, catching 73 passes for 978 yards and four touchdowns.

Javon Walker, Oakland Raiders - In his first season, 2002, Walker scored only once and caught only 23 passes for 319 yards. He became a fantasy weapon in 2003, scoring nine touchdowns, but his other totals remained pedestrian: 41 receptions for 716 yards. It was only in his third season that Walker put it all together, catching 89 passes for 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Last Season

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - White is a prime example of the jump receivers can make from their second to third years. His receptions shot up from 30 in 2006 to 83 in 2007 and his receiving yards from 506 to 1,202. He remains the No. 1 receiving for the Falcons, and his fourth pro season points to a letdown for fantasy owners with all of the change in Atlanta.

Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns - Edwards established himself as one of the top receivers in the NFL last year with an 80-catch, 1,289-yard season. If not for New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss' 23 touchdowns, Edwards' 16 touchdowns likely would have garnered more national attention. The only negative surrounding his 2007 was that he managed just one 100-yard game in his final nine contests.

Exceptions

Colston is not the first bright talent to throw a wrench in the third-year theory. Michael Clayton, of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, had a superb rookie season in 2004, catching 80 passes for 1,193 yards and seven touchdowns. In 2003, Anquan Boldin, of the Arizona Cardinals, was the sensation, catching 101 passes for 1,377 yards and eight scores.

What's crucial here is that Colston, Clayton and Boldin are the only rookie receivers to have cracked the 1,000-yard mark in the past six seasons. Prior to Boldin, the last wideout to surpass 1,000 yards in his rookie season was former Minnesota Vikings wideout Randy Moss in 1998 (69 catches, 1,313 yards, 17 touchdowns). Prior to Moss, it was former New England Patriots receiver Terry Glenn in 1996 (90 receptions, 1,132 yards, six touchdowns). Prior to Glenn, it was then Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Joey Galloway in 1995 (67 catches, 1,039 yards, seven touchdowns). Prior to Galloway, only nine other rookies recorded 1,000 receiving yards in NFL history.

In other words, rookie wideouts generally do not stand out.

Second-year receivers rarely stand out, either, though here too there are exceptions. Among today's fantasy elites, the Cincinnati Bengals' Chad Johnson (69 catches, 1,166 yards, six touchdowns in 2002), the St. Louis Rams' Torry Holt (82 catches, 1,635 yards, six touchdowns in 2000) and the Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald (103 receptions, 1,409 yards, 10 touchdowns in 2005) best exemplify the players who have emerged in their second seasons.

Still, the bottom line is that receivers - even great ones - rarely excel early on. This year could further prove that point. There were no receivers selected in the first round of the NFL draft, and the highest-ranked rookie receiver in KFFL's rankings is Washington Redskins' Devin Thomas at 67th overall. Second-year talents, such as Bowe or Calvin Johnson, are no sure things, either. The safest bets are the young veterans. Below we'll analyze the best third-year receivers for 2007.

Third-Year candidates

Already established

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - Marshall proved to be an exception to the third-year rule for wide receivers. The Pittsburgh native broke out with 102 passes for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns. He was a beast during the final four weeks of the season - especially in points per reception leagues - when caught 37 passes for 411 yards and three touchdowns. The established No. 1 receiving threat in Denver, it is hard to see Marshall improving much, though he could receive a slight boost if quarterback Jay Cutler continues up his developmental curve.

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints - Not much more can be said about Colston; he broke out during his first year and continued to show significant improvement during his sophomore season. He is already a No. 1 receiver and could move in to truly elite status if his upward trend continues. Only twice after Week 7 did Colston catch less than seven passes; he also had seven games of 92-plus yards in his last nine games. The Saints have one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league and the addition of tight end Jeremy Shockey could open things up even further. Draft Colston as a No. 1 receiver and expect big things.

Best bets

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - If you are looking for a receiver that looks ready to make the jump to No. 1 status, Holmes could be your man. All of his totals (receptions, yards, average and touchdowns) improved from his first to second year. The speedy receiver was consistent during his sophomore campaign, with his single-game yardage totals dropping below 53 just three times in 13 games. The Steelers offense is also shifting toward a more balanced attack. If quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to mature, this could be a breakout year for Holmes. He is all but guaranteed a starting spot. Lock him up as a No. 2 receiver in the early middle rounds.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Yet another three-year exception, Jennings hauled in 53 passes for 920 yards and 12 touchdowns last year, including nine touchdowns in his final nine games. His ability to run after the catch fits perfectly with the Packers' offensive game plan. Owners expecting an improvement over his 2007 touchdown total might be disappointed; however, with just two 100-yard games and only 53 receptions, there should still be room for Jennings to grow in the Packers offense.

Risky ventures

Sam Hurd, Dallas Cowboys - Hurd fits the bill of what you look for in third-year breakout receivers. He improved his receptions from five to 19 and his yards from 75 to 314 over the last two years. Six of his receptions and 114 of his yards came in the final two games. With wide receiver Terry Glenn's status on the team uncertain, there could be a spot available for the former Northern Illinois University receiver in the slot. Quarterback Tony Romo is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, and the Cowboys possess a great all-around offense. Draft Hurd as a sleeper late in drafts provided he can win a spot further up the depth chart.

Chad Jackson, New England Patriots - A torn ACL knocked Jackson (knee) out of the 2007 AFC Championship game and limited him to just two games - mainly on return duty - last year. With a good blend of size (6-foot-1, 215 pounds) and speed, Jackson has potential, especially in the Patriots' high-powered offense. However, both the top two receiving spots - from a fantasy perspective - are occupied by wide receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker, which leaves Jackson as well as two others (Kelley Washington, Jabar Gaffney) competing for the third role. A maturing receiver, Jackson might be another year away due to the missed 2007 season. He could be a sleeper in very deep leagues, but something would likely have to happen to Moss, Welker or Gaffney first.

More questions than answers

Jason Avant, Philadelphia Eagles - Avant might find it tough to register on fantasy radars in 2008. He did show an inkling of potential with two of his four best games in the final two weeks of the 2007. However, there might not be much room for him in Philadelphia. Wide receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are already established as the top two options. Many receivers (Avant, Hank Baskett, DeSean Jackson, L.J. Smith and Greg Lewis) will all be competing for targets. Even in an offense that passes the ball as much as the Eagles, it could be tough for Avant to break through. He should not be drafted in leagues this year unless he explodes during training camp.

Demetrius Williams, Baltimore Ravens - After a promising finish to the 2006 season (160 yards and two touchdowns in the final three games), Williams was off to a quick start in 2007 with three games of 50-plus yards in his first four games. However, a high ankle injury suffered in Week 7 cut short his season and limited him to just 20 receptions for 290 yards. He has the potential to be a decent deep threat but will have to overcome durability and consistency issues. With a starting spot seemingly open, and the strong-armed Joe Flacco developing at quarterback, Williams could be considered a sleeper down the road, if he remains healthy.

Maurice Stovall, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Since being drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft, Stovall has caught just 17 passes for a disappointing 188 yards. With last year's two primary wide receivers (Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard) well into their 30s, the Buccaneers could use a standout year from one of their young guys. There is expected to be an open competition for one of the starting spots. None of the other receivers on the roster have Stovall's height or size, which makes him a great target, especially in the end zone. However, Stovall can be considered a sleeper in only very deep leagues unless he wins a starting job.

Fourth-Year candidates

There have been plenty of receivers that did not contribute significantly until their fourth season - New England Patriots ' Wes Welker the latest to fall into this category.

Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns - After establishing himself as a dominant receiver last year, there is little reason to expect the former third overall draft choice to improve. If quarterback Derek Anderson turns out to be a one-hit wonder, Edwards numbers could drop. However, he should still be selected as a solid No. 1 receiver.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - As stated above, White followed the third-year receiver rule to the letter. He remains the No. 1 receiving threat in Atlanta. Quarterback issues - a big problem last year - did not slow him down and should not do such this season. His best value is as a strong No. 3 receiver.

Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles - Brown regressed slightly after being pegged as a breakout candidate prior to the 2007 season. He still caught 61 passes for 780 yards but his touchdowns were cut in half with only four. He started slowly, as well, failing to record a more than 40 yards in any game until Week 6 or to find the end zone until Week 10. Brown remains a starter, and the Eagles operate a prolific passing offense. He improved substantially down the stretch with 22 receptions for 262 yards and two touchdowns. He has value as a moderate-to-strong No. 3 receiver.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - Jackson provides the Chargers with a huge red zone target (6-foot-5, 241 pounds) and excelled late in the season. He was their top threat in the postseason with 300 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games. It could be a sign the Colorado native is ready to break out. His upside could be capped, however. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates are both ahead of him on the pecking order. After wide receiver Chris Chambers arrived in Week 6, Jackson scored just once and had only three games of 40-plus receiving yards in 10 regular season weeks. Jackson has best value as a weaker No. 4 receiver.

Roydell Williams, Tennessee Titans - Williams emerged as one of quarterback Vince Young's favorite targets last year. He registered a 124-yard game in Week 7 before averaging 3.6 receptions per game over his final 10 games. In four of the Titans' final five games, Williams led the team in receiving. If Young continues to mature - a strong possibility under new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger - Williams has a chance to be a legitimate fantasy threat. Owners should look to him as a weak No. 5 receiver with upside.

Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - A lightning-quick receiver, Parrish has a chance to blossom in 2008 with the Bills expected to increase their vertical attack. At 5-foot-9, 171 pounds, Parrish relies on his speed and quickness to get open. He had two catches from both 20-plus and 40-plus yards last year, including a touchdown grab at 47 yards. Quarterback Trent Edwards could provide more consistency, and Parrish figures to line up in one of the top three receiving spots. He should be drafted as a very late sleeper in most deep leagues.

Mark Clayton - Baltimore Ravens - Clayton regressed during his third season, dropping from 67 receptions to 48 and from 939 yards to 531. Personal and physical problems could have hindered him during 2007, as well as some poor quarterback play. The quarterback situation might not improve this year, but Clayton should at least be healthy and could provide the Ravens with a legitimate deep threat. However, the presence of tight end Todd Heap and wide receiver Derrick Mason shouldn't make Clayton anything more than a weak No. 4 or strong No. 5 receiver.

D.J. Hackett, Carolina Panthers - Hackett brings his injury-prone body to Carolina after just four campaigns in Seattle. He is expected to compete for a starting spot; however, wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad might be the preferred option for head coach John Fox. When healthy, Hackett has been a decent receiver. He went for 100 yards in two of his six games and found the end zone in three straight mid-season games last year. Hackett has missed 29 games during his four years in the league - his first season was a write-off because of a hip injury. Hackett should be a weak No. 5 receiver.

Rashied Davis, Chicago Bears - With both last year's top two receivers gone, Davis could find himself on the field more often than in the past. He has impressed the coaching staff during offseason workouts and could finally have found his comfort zone in offensive coordinator Ron Turner's offense. If defenses focus more attention on wide receiver Devin Hester, the field could be opened up for Davis in the shorter routes. With all that said, Davis has done little in his NFL and should be on watch lists only in very deep leagues.

Troy Williamson, Jacksonville Jaguars - Williamson will have a chance to redeem himself after three dismal seasons in Minnesota. The seventh overall pick in the 2005 draft, Williamson scored just three times and had only two games with over 77 receiving yards during his entire Minnesota career. He has speed to burn and was reportedly impressive during his workouts. It is possible with a more secure quarterback Williamson could finally break out. However, even after corrective eye surgery concentration has been a big problem for him, and it is hard to see him becoming a sure-handed receiver overnight. Avoid him in fantasy drafts.

Nate Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers offense tends to favor a more balanced attack with offensive Bruce Arians at the helm. As well, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to advance up the quarterback rankings. Washington managed three straight games of 30-plus yards and two touchdowns to cap the regular season. However, his 2007 display was a disappointment on the whole. Too many better quality options could keep Washington from receiving much attention in the offense, and the team drafted a similar target in wideout Limas Sweed. Washington is someone to target only in deep leagues.

Brandon Jones, Tennessee Titans - With 154 yards and one touchdown in his final two games of the 2006 season, Jones was finally showing signs of maturity. He had games of 57 and 73 yards in his first three games this past year but managed just 112 yards and one touchdown the rest of the way. With better options ahead of him on the depth chart and an offense invested heavily in the run, Jones should go undrafted in most fantasy drafts.

Conclusion

We can summarize what you need to know about third- and fourth- year receivers in three basic principles:

Look for the statistical upswings - Second-year numbers should be better than rookie numbers, and third-year numbers - if they're available - should be even better. Avoid players that regressed in their third season.

Starters are better than backups - It sounds obvious, yet time and again you'll find fantasy advice columns touting the virtues of third- or fourth-year receivers that might not start. Holmes is a better fantasy prospect than Hurd, not necessarily because he's more talented but because he's more of a lock to receive quality playing time.

Pay attention to quarterbacks and team philosophies - Brown is a safer fantasy receiver than D. Williams not necessarily because of their respective abilities, but because Brown plays in a stronger passing offense with quarterback Donovan McNabb; Williams plays in a run-first offense with a quarterback position that is up for grabs.

Remember: Any nitwit with a cheatsheet can pick Steve Smith or Chad Johnson in the early rounds. Championship rosters are made in the later rounds, when you're forced to find the diamond among players like Hurd, Parrish and Co. Not all third- and fourth-year receivers break out, nor will all receivers take until their third or fourth year to do so. However, by targeting improving wideouts in friendly systems, you maximize the chances of your No. 3 and No. 4 receivers producing No. 1 or No. 2 caliber statistics. That's the wisest way to draft receivers, and the best method for stockpiling the talent you'll need to win your league.

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Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.