Impact Analysis: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros

July 23, 2008 @ 15:32:21

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

Even the All-Star break wasn't enough time for Houston Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt to heal. Oswalt (hip, back) aggravated his injured hip during his start July 11 and has been out of action since then. After undergoing an MRI Saturday, July 19, a strained left hip abductor was found to be the source of Oswalt's pain, and he was placed on the DL. The MRI also showed a herniated disk that Oswalt knew of and had been pitching through.

Oswalt, who had a very difficult start to the 2008 season, had been quietly turning around his performance in recent weeks prior to this injury. The eight-year veteran's slump had been a drastic diversion from his career major league numbers.

Though only recently placed on the disabled list, the move is retroactive to July 12 because he hadn't played in a game since then. He threw a bullpen session Wednesday, July 23, and felt fine as he threw both fastballs and changeups. He is eligible to return Sunday, July 27, meaning he could actually spend as little as eight days on the disabled list because his injury carried over through All-Star break, a plus for fantasy owners. He would line up to start at home Monday, July 28, against the Cincinnati Reds, but manager Cecil Cooper might not rush his return.

Could this be the season that starts his downturn? He was bucking trends that had fantasy owners worried about his performance this year. It's possible that this injury could halt any momentum he had recently gained.

Houston's ace

Oswalt has enjoyed the perk of being the Astros ace the past eight seasons. Over his career, Oswalt has enjoyed four seasons in which he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA; his career ERA sits at 3.18. Oswalt also has a career record of 119-62 and was a two-time 20-game winner in 2004 and 2005, along with winning 19 games in 2002.

It was this long track record of success that had fantasy owners drafting him as a top pitcher this season. Though he is not the dominating strikeout pitcher of old - his strikeout numbers have declined each year since 2004, from 206 K's down to 154 last season - Oswalt had still shown as recently as last season that he can still help owners with ERA.

However, there were indications that Oswalt was on the decline upon looking at his numbers from last season. Though he posted a good ERA, he also had the highest WHIP of his career, with hitters also recording the highest batting average against him at .265. These weren't guaranteed signs of a decline, but the numbers were there to see that Oswalt may not be a fantasy ace this season, or at least the one owners drafted him to be.

Looking at his 2008 numbers, Oswalt has been far from an ace for the majority of this year. He is in the midst of a season in which he has posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a .285 batting average against, all the worst in his career.

However, Oswalt had looked better in the weeks leading up to his injury. His 4.53 ERA is actually at its lowest point of the season, as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start since May 29.

June turnaround

Oswalt enjoyed being able to put two of the worst months of his career behind him this season when he reached June. Though he posted a 2-2 record in both April and May, he had an ERA of 5.87 in April and 5.18 in May. Among the reasons for his struggles this season have been his penchant for giving up the long ball; he has already allowed 18 homers this season, 16 of which came in May and June. Prior to 2008, the most home runs he had allowed in any full season totaled 18, so undoubtedly he is on pace to set a new career high in that category.

In June, Oswalt returned to being the pitcher fantasy owners hoped he would be when they selected him. Though he only turned in a 3-3 record for the month, he posted a 2.97 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with a 39-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio. In addition, in his six June starts he gave up only two more home runs, again showing his ability to fix his early-season struggles. His lowered rate of home runs allowed and his renewed strikeout ability indicate that Oswalt could be back to being the pitcher of the last eight years, rather than the monstrosity he was in April and May.

His bum hip

Oswalt actually injured his hip June 30 during a winning effort against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He re-injured his hip abductor on July 11 against the Nationals after one inning and only 17 pitches.

The Astros were hopeful that the All-Star break combined with a few extra days off would be enough to get Oswalt healthy, but when the MRI he underwent still showed a strain (along with the herniated disk), the Astros had no option but to shelve him.

The injury is being treated with rest and conditioning, and they are hopeful that he will be able to make his return to the rotation July 28 after spending the minimum amount of time on the DL. However, a pitcher's windup can certainly aggravate such an injury given the lower-body movement involved in planting his front pitching leg.

The other rotation options

If Oswalt is unable to return on time, his replacements don't warrant much confidence. Though his direct replacement on the roster was pitcher Runelvys Hernandez, right-handed pitcher Jack Cassel made the start in Oswalt's place Tuesday, July 22. Both had been pitching in Triple-A Round Rock until recently, but with the Astros' pitching struggles (Oswalt is the team leader in ERA with his awful 4.56 ERA), they are looking for help anywhere they can get it.

Cassel was just called up for the third time this season, and after Tuesday's start now has a 7.11 ERA in three starts (five appearances) and only has eight strikeouts in 19 innings.

Hernandez has had four starts with the Astros following Monday night's five inning no decision. Though he pitched well July 21 (two earned runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings), he still has an 8.38 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP on the season.

In a peculiar move, the Astros also traded for starter Randy Wolf (San Diego Padres), but he isn't considered a replacement for Oswalt. Given Wolf's struggles away from PETCO Park (1-6, 6.63 ERA, 1.62 WHIP), he doesn't make much sense for the Houston, who is for all intents and purposes out of contention.

Fantasy baseball outlook

With Oswalt's recent turnaround, owners should feel encouraged by his progress and outlook the rest of the season. Owners in every format should stash him on a disabled list spot, especially since it looks to be an extremely short stint. His lowered homer rate along and an increased strikeout rate indicate success for the remainder of the season, but they don't guarantee it. Along with an injury that could affect his delivery on the mound, owners will want to monitor Oswalt closely and ensure that his turnaround on the mound continues.

Neither Cassel nor Hernandez is an option in any league, save for extremely deep NL-only leagues. They both are struggling at the major league level and are only temporary solutions for the club. Wolf has lost value with the move, likely making him relevant only in NL-only formats for the rest of the year, barring the occasional spot start in the right conditions.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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