Impact Analysis: Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen

July 23, 2008 @ 12:55:52

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Tim Heaney

Uncertainty has been the go-to word to describe the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen in 2008. At the center of the inconsistency has been current closer Brandon Lyon. Named the team's finisher in early February, long before the regular season kicked off, Lyon has experienced highs (24 consecutive scoreless appearances) and lows (five blown saves, including two in his last three chances).

Recently, Lyon has tumbled a great deal, costing the Diamondbacks several games in the past few weeks. While no decision has been made, there is no question that Arizona manager Bob Melvin has other options in the 'pen if Lyon continued his meltdown. Reliever Tony Pena, who many predicted would be closer before Melvin put his confidence in Lyon. Righty Chad Qualls recorded a save Monday, July 21, to give Lyon some time off during his recent struggles.

They could also turn to recently acquired reliever Jon Rauch, who was succeeding as the interim closer for the Washington Nationals before the D-backs acquired him Tuesday, July 22, for infielder Emilio Bonifacio.

Melvin has said Lyon will remain the closer with Rauch, Pena and Qualls in late-inning setup roles. However, Arizona's new addition offers another possibility if the team needs to make a change.

Lyon's season a rocky road

Despite receiving a vote of confidence from Melvin prior to the season, Lyon struggled immediately out of the gate in 2008. He blew saves in two of his first four appearances as the Arizona closer. Despite the slow start, though, Melvin reiterated that Lyon was the closer going forth, and the right-hander responded, churning out 24 consecutive appearances spanning 25 innings without allowing a run.

The final outing of the scoreless streak was a two-inning appearance June 12 for Lyon, his first in 2008. Whether it resulted in fatigue to Lyon's arm is certainly debatable, but the right-hander's next appearance five days later was disastrous as he allowed four earned runs in a non-save situation to an anemic Oakland Athletics offense. Then, after three more scoreless appearances, Lyon's season hit a new low as the closer allowed 11 runs - nine earned - in his next nine games, a stretch that included three blown saves and three losses.

The recent slump has brought Lyon's season full circle, and the closer has blamed a lack of command for his struggles. After sporting a season-best 1.29 ERA as of June 12, his ERA has soared to 3.86, the highest it has been since April 22 (4.00). Moreover, Lyon's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically in his past seven games, with the right-hander only striking out two in his last 6 2/3 innings pitched after averaging 7.09 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) through June 30. He has walked six batters since June 7 after issuing only two free passes before that, and Lyon has become susceptible to the home run ball, surrendering six this season, already tied for third most in his seven-year career.

Lyon recently pitched three straight days and has given up a combined seven runs in his last two games. He claimed to have been ready while warming up before the third appearance, but that turned out to be a five-run blowup against the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday, June 20. His fastball reportedly lost some velocity and was frequently left over the plate in that outing.

This development, combined with the effects felt after Lyon's prior two-inning appearance, is somewhat alarming. The D-backs' use of Qualls was likely an effort to help Lyon regain his arm strength, though, so they could be making an effort to maintain his health so he can keep his job. The endorsement from Melvin eases concerns for now.

Rauch enters the picture

The right-handed Rauch saved 17 contests this year for the Nationals in place of the injured Chad Cordero (shoulder) while posting a 2.92 ERA and an impressive 44 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings. He struck out two in his first appearance with the D-backs July 22 - pitching in the ninth inning of a non-save situation.

The 6-foot-11 hurler had been a setup man for most of his career, earning only six saves before this season. However, his 46-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio is a telltale sign of closer ability. His presence certainly helps a bullpen that ranks 15th in the majors with a 3.95 ERA and is tied for fifth in the majors with 18 losses.

While he was acquired mainly to give the D-backs depth after injuries sidelined relievers Doug Slaten (knee) and Juan Cruz (oblique), Rauch cannot be ignored by Arizona as a potential stopper. He might not earn the role this season, but he has proven he could perform if a chance opened up in the future.

Other options for Melvin

The 26-year-old Pena entered the season as Arizona's setup man, but there was no secret that he would be next in line to close should Lyon struggle. Pena has undoubtedly been streaky this season, which may make Melvin hesitant to trust him in such a role, though. Pena allowed seven runs in a five-appearance span in April. The right-hander has sported a 7.00 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP and a .368 opponents' average in July. Pena has also allowed three home runs in July after allowing just one through the end of June.

However, Pena did show in May and June that he has the stuff to be a closer. The two-month stretch reminded fans of Pena's 2007 season, when he limited opposing hitters to a .207 clip; his May and June line included a combined 20 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings to go along with a 2.10 ERA.

Qualls is another outside candidate to replace Lyon should Melvin consider a switch. Qualls has donned a 3.72 ERA on the season but has slowed recently; his ERA was at 0.48 through May 6. In addition, in his 49 appearances, he has allowed more than one run seven times, an alarming sign that he is susceptible to blowing up.

Despite recording the save in place of Lyon July 21, Qualls also pitched in the seventh inning the following night in a D-backs blowout. Chances are Melvin would not turn to Qualls on a permanent basis due to the fact that he is a workhorse as well; he has pitched in at least 77 games in each of his past three seasons with the Houston Astros. Given Qualls' durability, Arizona probably would rather keep him in a setup role where he could eat innings in the bullpen.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Fantasy owners of Lyon should not be overly concerned just yet. Melvin has not hinted at making a change, and Lyon has already overcome one sour stretch this year.

Owners of Rauch should be concerned because he immediately loses value without the saves. Given his experience with the Nationals this season, Rauch presents another wild card in this situation. However, it would be hasty to drop him at this point unless you're in an extremely shallow league. Impatient owners might have dropped Rauch once the trade robbed him of consistent save chances, so he could be available in your league. He would be a great speculative add given his performance in Washington this season. For Lyon owners, Rauch makes a good trade target; for Rauch owners, he makes decent trade bait. What would a Lyon owner give for security?

Pena and Qualls are likely to maintain their roles as setup men at the moment given the arrival of Rauch but should be owned in all NL-only formats. Qualls' save chance was likely to give Lyon a rest and came before the addition of Rauch. All three setup men could earn the occasional save opportunity, though, if Lyon continues to be rested.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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