Impact Analysis: Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers

July 20, 2008 @ 12:09:52

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Tim Heaney and Herija C. Green

Entering 2008, many fantasy baseball managers believed it was simply a matter of time before Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Jonathan Broxton took over as the team's closer from relief pitcher Takashi Saito (elbow). With Broxton possessing a high-90s fastball and Saito nearing the age of 40, the younger righty was a common draft pick as an insurance plan for Saito, or even a potential replacement.

The patience of Broxton's fantasy owners has finally paid off for this season with Saito placed on the disabled list retroactive to July 13. Saito's sprained right elbow ligament could force him to miss the rest of the season and possibly end his career, especially if he undergoes surgery. This gives Broxton the first opportunity to close for the Dodgers.

This is an unfortunate case for Saito owners because Broxton was likely drafted in most mixed setups, meaning he is likely unavailable on most waiver wires. The question that lingers, however, is whether Broxton can effectively fill the role, and the Dodgers could still look outside the organization for a solution in the ninth inning.

Injuries coming with age?

With Saito's tenure in the majors only spanning three seasons, it is easy to forget that the aging right-hander had a 14-year career in Japan and is 38 years old. Whether it has come with age or just bad luck, Saito's 2008 campaign has been plagued with injuries, first hindering his preseason workouts and now possibly ending his season prematurely.

Injuries started plaguing Saito prior to opening day. A sore right calf and tightness in his right buttocks caused the Dodgers closer to miss most of spring training, causing fears that the reliever would not be ready for the start of the season. He also had issues with his right calf during spring training in 2007, making his preseason malady a worrisome development.

Saito looked strong out of the gate, though, and while his hit rate (7.4 per nine innings) and WHIP (1.11) are well above his career numbers of 5.6 and 0.89, respectively, he has still managed to strike out 53 batters in 41 1/3 innings while donning a 2.18 ERA.

In addition, Saito had not blown a save since May 28, converting 17 of his 20 opportunities this season. While his 17 saves are a modest total, Saito was still reliable, especially with a 4.42-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Dodgers have the best ERA in the NL (3.65) but rank second to last in the majors with 27 save opportunities; this has robbed Saito of some fantasy value.

Saito then began experiencing tightness in his right elbow while pitching against the Florida Marlins Saturday, July 12, and he was yanked from the game, eventually bound for the dreaded MRI. Results did not alleviate the fears of fantasy owners or manager Joe Torre when the test revealed that Saito had sprained a ligament in his right elbow.

The injury calls for Saito to be shut down for six weeks before being reevaluated, with recent news from Saito suggesting surgery may now be an option, although it was initially ruled out. However, he is expected to try to do everything possible to avoid going under the knife.

Stay inside or hit the market?

The Dodgers now must decide how to dole out saves for what could be the rest of the year. With L.A. sporting one of the best bullpens in the majors (their 2.95 ERA is third in the bigs), it is expected that Torre will stay in-house. Three of his options are the aforementioned Broxton along with relievers Joe Beimel and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Broxton figures to earn the opportunity before the other two. The big-bodied right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA on the season, including 48 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. His ERA would also be much better if it weren't for him giving up six earned runs in a May 11 outing against the Houston Astros.

Broxton's power-pitching ability and history of success out of the pen would seem to make him a prime candidate to close, but he has struggled doing so in the past. However, he made short work of the Arizona Diamondbacks in his first save opportunity since Saito's injury, hitting 101 mph on the radar gun and striking out two of the three batters he faced to secure the Dodgers' 8-7 win Friday, July 18.

Kuo is the least likely of the three to earn the role, as his performance as a long reliever (3-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 67 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings) has been lights out. Torre has indicated he might consider using Kuo in the seventh and eighth innings to strengthen the bridge to Broxton.

Beimel is the team's final in-house option. His numbers, including a 3-0 record and 1.57 ERA, look decent on the surface. However, he has only three career saves, and his 1.47 WHIP is not indicative of a talented major league-level closer.

If the Dodgers were to look outside the organization, they would probably look for a proven MLB closer - perhaps Colorado Rockies closer Brian Fuentes or Oakland Athletics closer Huston Street. However, each reliever will probably be a hot commodity at the trade deadline and may take more to acquire than the Dodgers would be willing to part with.

Waiver wire help

The waiver wire is usually pretty thin for saves, but if you miss out on Broxton, other relief options in the meantime include Chicago White Sox relievers Octavio Dotel (2.91 ERA, 62 K's in 43 1/3 innings) and Matt Thornton (2.31 ERA, 48 K's in 39 frames). Dotel and Thornton were part of a closer-by-committee setup while Bobby Jenks (back) was on the DL. Jenks returned July 19, but both relievers strike out enough batters to still be worth a roster spot in most deep formats.

Another option is Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Grant Balfour, who has a 1.54 ERA with four saves and 36 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings this season. He has emerged as the most reliable closer option since reliever Troy Percival (hamstring) went down. Percival returned from the DL Sunday, July 20, but Balfour has emerged as an impact relief option in deep mixed setups, and if Percival's injury resurfaces Balfour would likely be fantasy option for saves.

Fantasy baseball outlook

For Saito, it appears 2008 will be somewhat of a lost season. Considering his age and the severity of the injury - he couldn't even brush his teeth the day after being removed from the game without experiencing pain - he is only worth holding on to if there is a DL spot readily available.

Broxton should be added in all formats if available, considering his strikeout ability and the fact that he appears to be getting first crack at the job. Those who own Broxton in keeper setups should be ecstatic as he could be the closer of the future if Saito doesn't play past this season and the Dodgers don't make a move.

Kuo is likely owned in the majority of formats, but if he's somehow available he should also be added for his low ratios and high strikeout ability. Beimel is worth an addition in NL-only leagues, but he has primarily served as a left-handed specialist and should only be placed on an owner's watch list elsewhere.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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