Impact Analysis: Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox

July 11, 2008 @ 15:29:06

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

A major part of the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox's success this year has come from a magnificent performance from the bullpen. When the Pale Hose placed reliable linchpin closer Bobby Jenks (back) on the 15-day DL Wednesday, July 9, with left scapula bursitis, many fantasy owners had to be holding their breath.

Scapula bursitis is a fairly common injury with a normal return of a week to 14 days, if rested. However, if rushed back, the player could aggravate and worsen the injury. The repetitive throwing motion could present a moderate risk of infection and adhesive capsulitis (commonly known as "frozen shoulder"), a potentially permanent injury that results in limited mobility and can emerge if not dealt with correctly.

With the closer down, damage control is a plausible plan of action for a bullpen that boasts 17 wins and an American League-best 2.83 ERA. The committee of relievers assembled by manager Ozzie Guillen to plug the gap includes Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton.

Jenks is expected to return after the All-Star break, but could this injury affect the rest of his season? Who is the best option in the interim?

Injury timeline

Jenks last pitched June 29 but soon afterward reported problems with back stiffness. He received two days off and was listed day-to-day after that. The team hoped he would be available to pitch Sunday, July 6, but Jenks ended up missing more than a week of action before hitting the disabled list.

It didn't appear as if he felt much pain in his last seven appearances before that. He had been dominant, going 4-for-4 in save opportunities and posting a 1.29 ERA, walking only one hitter over seven frames.

In control

Although overlooked during All-Star selections, the 275-pound Jenks has been as good as any fireman this season, going 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 18 saves. His strikeouts are down with 19 in 32 1/3 innings pitched, just 5.29 per nine innings (K/9). This is part of a three-year decline; he had a 10.33 K/9 in '06 but dropped to 7.75 last year.

He emerged as the future closer in the 2005 season, posting a 2.25 ERA and saving four games in the postseason, but control issues put his job in jeopardy the following year. Over the last two seasons he has become more of a pitcher instead of just a hard thrower, decreasing his strikeout numbers but monumentally improving his control.

His WHIP sits at an impressive 1.11, and opponents have clawed their way to a miniscule .635 OPS. His ratios have been his mainstay for the last two seasons.

Table: Bobby Jenks statistics (2006-08)

Year	W	L	SV	IP	K	BAA	ERA	WHIP
2006	3	4	41	69 2/3	80	.253	4.00	1.39
2007	3	5	40	65	56	.198	2.77	0.89
2008	2	0	18	32 1/3	19	.246	1.95	1.11

The two-time All-Star has historically thrown poorly in July over his career (1-3, 13 saves, 5.61 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 33 2/3 innings pitched), so missing some time now may not be the worst thing. Furthermore, the White Sox don't play after the All-Star break until Friday, July 18. The closer hopes to return then or soon after since the move is retroactive to June 30.

Replacements

Linebrink is an impressive 2-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 32 punchouts in 38 innings pitched in his first year of a lucrative four-year pact. He said that he "stinks" after blowing a save Tuesday, July 8, though; he allowed two runs on three hits in an inning of work.

He has surrendered five runs on eight hits over his last four appearances dating back to July 2. He picked up the save July 6 despite allowing one run on three hits. The righty has five career saves.

Dotel, 34, has been solid this year (3-4, 2.76 ERA, 60 K's in 42 1/3 innings pitched) and has closed in parts of three separate seasons while amassing 83 saves in 10 seasons. In 2007, as the Kansas City Royals' fireman, the Dominican recorded 11 saves and posted an OK 3.91 ERA to go with a not-so-great 1.52 WHIP.

He slammed the door on the Royals for his first save this season July 9 by striking out the side. Some have questioned Dotel's mental toughness over his career in the closer's role. He has a career 3.70 ERA.

The lefty Thornton is yielding a .125 average to lefties this season (.209 to righties). His line of 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings this season is as impressive as they come for setup men. He earned a save June 30 by retiring one hitter. The 31-year-old has five career saves.

Dotel and Thornton have the high strikeout rates you would like to see in a closer, but it is hard to forecast a certain "go-to guy" of this bunch. Linebrink was the early favorite, but his latest struggles are worrisome considering he seemed to develop a sort of "dead arm" at this time over the past two seasons.

Table: Scott Linebrink statistics - first half vs. second half (2006-07)

Half	W	L	SV	IP	BAA	ERA	K
First	8	3	2	82	.204	2.63	64
Second	4	7	1	64	.282	4.92	54

Thus far the duties have relatively been spread equally, and the team figures to continue in this pattern unless bad news emerges on Jenks' condition in the next few days.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The sage Lao Tzu once said we must repay injury with kindness, but in a closer's market with a dearth of reliable talent, patience can be torturous for fantasy owners. Jenks is expected to be fine upon his return, and the move was described by Guillen as precautionary.

In AL-only and deep leagues Dotel and Thornton have legitimate value considering their high strikeout rates and recent success. Linebrink should also be considered but is more of a wild card with his latest hiccups.

It would be wise to monitor the actions of Guillen and the recovery of Jenks. If you have a spot to stash one of these three it would not be the worst move. All three have value as middle relievers due to their solid strikeout numbers, and they can help your club's ERA and WHIP. For saves, any of the three could be useless in a few days given the impending break, but until Jenks returns and shows no ill effects, nothing is certain.

If none of these three are available, an example of a valuable waiver wire reliever is Cincinnati Reds setup man Jared Burton (2.23 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings). If you want a speculative pickup, Colorado Rockies reliever Manny Corpas, who has a 3.50 ERA over the last two months, could be a candidate for the closer role since the team is actively shopping current fireman Brian Fuentes.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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