Impact Analysis: Cleveland Indians bullpen

July 9, 2008 @ 15:08:14

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Tim Heaney

Last season, former Cleveland Indians closer Joe Borowski was probably one of the most frustrating relief pitchers in baseball. Despite the fact that he led the American League in saves with 45, his 5.07 ERA was one of the worst for a closer in the modern history of the game. When that ineffectiveness spilled over into the 2008 season, the Indians had little choice but to remove Borowski from the closer role.

A meager 6-for-10 in save opportunities this year, Borowski also has been hampered by injuries that date back to spring training; a strain in his right triceps led to a DL stint earlier this season after he had suffered a noticeable drop in velocity. Team officials consider those troubles the most likely reason for Borowski's horrific 7.56 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. Fed up with his poor performance, the Indians designated Borowski for assignment along with seldom-used reliever Rick Bauer Friday, July 4, and called up relief pitchers Jensen Lewis and Brian Slocum.

After Borowski's demotion, Indians manager Eric Wedge told reporters that the bulk of save opportunities would devolve upon Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi. It should be further noted, though, that Wedge qualified his decision. "Masa won't get them all," Wedge said, referring to save opportunities. "We're going to stay real open-minded and give ourselves the best chance to win every night." That remark leaves the door open for setup men Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez to pick up saves here and there.

Trouble with the Tribe

The Indians relief corps has been abysmal so far this season. In compiling an 8-17 record, the bullpen has only picked up 14 saves in 28 chances (50 percent, the lowest in the AL) and has allowed a truckload of baserunners (.354 opponents' on-base percentage). Look no further than their combined 5.16 ERA and 1.55 WHIP as a unit for proof of their ineffectiveness.

In addition, as of Wednesday, July 9, the Indians have lost nine games in a row and sit 15 games back in the AL Central. With the trade of pitcher CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Tribe looks to have given up on the season and will probably not create many save chances going forward. They are tied for 27th in the majors in save opportunities.

Closers-in-waiting?

Before joining the Indians this year, Kobayashi earned 227 saves in the Japanese League, giving him a solid body of experience upon which to draw. This season, he is 4-for-6 in save opportunities, with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, but he has just 26 strikeouts in 42 innings.

Betancourt, who has heralded as the "next in line" option by fantasy owners this offseason, seems to be the most likely option in the event that Kobayashi doesn't finish games. His 40 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings are testimony to the strength of his stuff, but a 5.67 ERA and 1.46 WHIP have made his appearances too nerve-wracking for fantasy owners.

Perez also might get a chance to interview for the closer position. Despite the fact that he is 0-for-4 in save opportunities and has a less-than-impressive 1.42 WHIP, the 26-year-old lefty has a decent 3.55 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 38 innings this year. All things considered, Perez will probably be Wedge's third option out of the bullpen.

A good litmus test for the best option going forward comes from the performance of each reliever during Borowski's early-season DL stint. Betancourt received the first opportunity to step up when Borowski went down this season. He posted an ugly 8.10 ERA but despite his ugly numbers grabbed four saves in five chances; he blew another save opening May 28, but it came in the seventh inning.

It's also worth noting that he lost the interim job before Borowski came back; instead, he became part of a committee. Kobayashi went 2-for-3 in save chances with a 4.02 ERA in Borowski's absence. Perez blew his only save opportunity with Borowski on the sidelines, but it came in the eighth inning. He was mainly kept in a setup role during that time and had a 2.40 ERA.

The team considers Lewis to be a top prospect, but the 24-year-old righty has a 4.22 ERA in 32 innings this season. He has 25 strikeouts compared to 17 walks. The 27-year-old Slocum has a 4.62 ERA at Buffalo this year along with 55 strikeouts and 33 walks in 62 1/3 innings. Both would be considered dark-horse candidates for the ninth-inning job.

The Indians haven't had a save opportunity since they discarded Borowski, so Kobayashi has not received his first chance to affirm his grip on the role.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Borowski can be dropped immediately in every fantasy league. His status remains uncertain going forward as the Indians have until Monday, July 14, to either release or trade him. He could end up at Triple-A Buffalo or he could go to another team in the majors. Either way his fantasy value is strictly speculative and limited to only the deepest leagues at this point.

Indians general manager Mark Shapiro expressed little confidence that the team's closer of the future is presently in their bullpen. That bleak outlook means that fantasy owners should not rely upon any members of the Indians bullpen to deliver them victory in the saves category.

Kobayashi has the most immediate value in the fantasy department, but that value is suppressed by the general lack of save opportunities that the Indians create. He could be worth a pickup in deep mixed or AL-only leagues, but he should only be considered a No. 3 closer at best in mixed formats.

Betancourt and Perez don't have much fantasy value right now either. Fantasy owners in desperate need of saves should keep an eye on the Indians in the coming weeks and watch for a change in their status. Unless you have a lot of open spots on your bench, they won't deliver much in the way of short-term value. They're both solid targets in AL-only leagues, though.

Fresh call-ups Lewis and Slocum are not in line for saves and have virtually no fantasy value as of now.

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