Impact Analysis: Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates

July 4, 2008 @ 12:26:56

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps (shoulder) opened the season in fine fashion by converting his first 15 save opportunities through June 9. Three weeks and five blown saves (in seven opportunities) later, Capps was moved to the 15-day disabled list Wednesday, July 2, with right shoulder bursitis and internal rotation deficit. He is expected to be out for about eight weeks, and the Pirates called up first baseman/outfielder Steve Pearce from Triple-A Indianapolis to fill his roster spot. Pearce is not expected to remain with the team for more than a few days.

Capps' history and present injury

The 24-year-old right-hander's recent struggles and first trip to the DL come just as he was establishing himself as one of the most consistent firemen in the game. Named the Pirates closer last June after current Milwaukee Brewers reliever Salomon Torres was demoted from the role, Capps has compiled 35 saves in 42 opportunities in both seasons since earning the job. Over that span he has racked up an impressive 2.40 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 69-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The problem for Capps began after a May 24 appearance against the Chicago Cubs in which he pitched three innings of a 14-inning game. The next day he noticed tightness in his throwing shoulder, but he thought that it was simply fatigue. Attempting to pitch through the discomfort, Capps' effectiveness suffered. After blowing his fifth save in three weeks Tuesday, July 1, Capps finally told team officials of the pain. An MRI in Pittsburgh revealed the injury, though it is not considered serious enough to warrant surgery at this time.

In simple terms, bursitis is a swelling of the bursa sac in the shoulder that cushions the bones from other tissue. Internal rotation deficit causes a loss of range of motion in the joint. The injury is restricting Capps from gaining full extension during his delivery. If left untreated, this type of injury can lead to major problems with either the labrum or rotator cuff.

Thankfully for Capps, the injury was discovered before any major damage had occurred, and the prognosis for a full recovery is excellent. He is expected to return to action sometime in late August or early September.

The Pirates' bullpen situation

Conventional wisdom dictates that the eighth-inning setup man moves into the role when the full-time closer goes down; do not expect the Pirates to follow that thought process. Pirates manager John Russell has stated publicly that he will choose his closer based on the needs of each game. "It will be who we have fresh," said Russell. "Are we going to have that one guy who becomes a one-inning closer? Probably not."

In this closer-by-committee situation, the most likely candidate to see the majority of chances is left-hander Damaso Marte, who has 32 career saves. Primarily a left-handed specialist, Russell has increasingly used Marte against both righties and lefties this season. Righties have hit just .212 off Marte this year, which bodes well for his stock. In 41 appearances this year, Marte has a 3.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, but his best number is his 44-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Another candidate to pick up saves is pitcher Tyler Yates. A hard-throwing right-hander with only three career saves, Yates is a veteran presence who has kept opponents to a .221 batting average while posting a 3.67 ERA. The biggest knock on Yates is his inability to keep the ball in the strike zone. With 30 walks in 41 2/3 innings and three blown saves in three opportunities, Yates doesn't seem to be the most stable option for the closer role, although he was once thought to have the stuff to close.

Setup man John Grabow could also be in line for save opportunities. He has been with the Pirates since 2003, and 2008 has arguably been his best season so far. He has just 34 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings, but his 3.38 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are a testament to his overall effectiveness this year.

A save or two could also be picked up by rookie Romulo Sanchez. Sanchez throws in the mid-90s and recorded his first career save Tuesday, July 1, but it was in an extra-inning affair, after Grabow, Yates and Marte had pitched earlier, setting up Capps. That was Capps last game, coincidentally, but Sanchez's lack of experience will probably keep him from too many opportunities.

Recently acquired reliever Denny Bautista (Detroit Tigers) also has a hard fastball but has some control issues with 15 walks in 23 1/3 innings this year. On the disabled list until late July is long reliever Franquelis Osoria (ankle). Upon his return, he could be the recipient of the occasional save chance.

Fantasy outlook

Capps is worth stashing in NL-only or deep mixed leagues. Shallow mixed managers can drop him only if they don't have space on a DL spot. Even if he returns healthy later in the season, the Pirates are likely to treat him gingerly to protect his future with the club. That said, keep an eye on his progress and be ready to snatch him up again upon his return.

Fantasy owners who have lost Capps should not depend upon any of the available alternatives from Pittsburgh to make up their deficit in saves. While Marte probably has the most value of anyone there, the fact that Russell has publicly declared a closer-by-committee approach limits Marte's potential to contribute. It does not help much that the Pirates have created just 32 save opportunities this year, which has them tied for 14th in the majors. Marte deserves consideration because he is the likeliest to help you in key categories - or at least not hurt you. Fantasy owners can probably wait to see if someone else in the 'pen steps up, but they shouldn't be too confident.

There are probably not a lot of options out there on the waiver wire considering the highly competitive market for saves. Fantasy owners might consider picking up one of the elite middle relievers that should be available in many leagues. Several effective setup men are: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim reliever Scot Shields, the San Diego Padres' Heath Bell, the Chicago White Sox's Matt Thornton, the Los Angeles Dodgers' Jonathan Broxton and the Cincinnati Reds' Jared Burton. They won't pick up many saves, but they could help you in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, along with the occasional win.

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