Impact Analysis: Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays

July 4, 2008 @ 07:22:16

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

Off to their best start in franchise history, the Tampa Bay Rays were dealt a blow when closer Troy Percival (hamstring) was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday, July 1, with a strained left hamstring. The move marks the second time in just over a month that Percival has landed on the DL due to a hamstring malady, and the Rays have to be concerned that their 38-year-old right-hander might miss extended time while his troublesome hammy heals. The team called up pitcher Mitch Talbot from Triple-A Durham to work in long relief while Percival is out of action.

Percival has been a pleasant surprise this year for the first-place Rays after pitching only 40 innings in 2007 for the St. Louis Cardinals. However, he was a key member of the Cardinals bullpen, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. In 2008, Percival has done a decent job as the closer, pitching 28 innings with a 3.54 ERA and 19 saves in 21 chances. What's not apparent in that stat line is the fact that Percival had a 2.61 ERA before a sore hamstring forced him to come out of the game against the Texas Rangers May 28. He landed on the DL one day later before he was activated June 13. He was clearly not the same pitcher, though, yielding four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings before exiting the game against the Boston Red Sox Monday, June 30.

Percival has since stated that his hamstring has been an issue since spring training and that an MRI had showed his latest injury to be a slight tear of the left hamstring - but higher in his leg than his earlier problem. He's uncertain whether or not he'll be able to return to the field when he's eligible July 18, and that uncertainty - especially coming from the ultra-competitive Percival - has to be of concern to the front-running Rays. The team has stated that they could stick with a closer-by-committee, which includes relievers Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell and Trever Miller. Reliever Al Reyes (shoulder) may also be in the mix once he returns from the disabled list.

The main candidates

Wheeler seems to be the most likely candidate to receive the majority of the save chances. The 30-year-old right-hander picked up his first save of the season Wednesday, May 28, after replacing the injured Percival, then converted a rather ugly save against Boston Wednesday, July 2. Wheeler has been solid this year, posting a 1.82 ERA with three saves, an AL-best 20 holds and 26 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings pitched. In 2007, he recorded a career-high 11 saves while pitching for the Houston Astros and the Rays. Wheeler has 28 career saves, and that experience would seem to make him the favorite to get the ball in the ninth inning while Percival's on the shelf.

The wild card in the mix is that, while Wheeler has been very effective as a setup man during his career, he has struggled at times when asked to close games. He posted a 10.43 ERA with three blown saves in June of last year as Houston's closer, and finished that season with a dismal 5.07 ERA for the Astros before being traded to Tampa Bay. Wheeler's strikeout rate is also down significantly this season from 9.88 per nine innings last year to 5.90 per nine in '08.

This brings us to Balfour. The 30-year-old Australian journeyman has done some nice work for the Rays this season, logging a 1.08 ERA with two saves and 25 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings pitched. Those are nice numbers, but Balfour had mainly toiled in the anonymity of middle relief until the night of July 1. With Percival injured and Wheeler unavailable due to a heavy workload, Balfour took the mound with two outs in the eighth inning and a one-run lead against the Red Sox.

The right-hander responded with a four-out save, fanning three Red Sox in the process - and demonstrating a wicked mid-90s fastball that simply overpowered the BoSox hitters. While Balfour's performance was impressive, we're not sure it will be enough to supplant Wheeler as the Rays' top option for saves - especially given Balfour's history of wildness (65 walks in just 109 1/3 career innings pitched.)

The others

Howell and Miller could also receive save opportunities - though Balfour's emergence figures to relegate the two lefties to option Nos. 3 and 4.

Howell has a 6-0 record and 2.96 ERA with two saves, 47 strikeouts and 23 walks in 51 2/3 innings of work. Howell has been a vital part of the Rays bullpen this season, proving to be equally effective against both left- (.175 average against) and right-handed (.203) batters. That parity might earn him an occasional save opportunity, but we can't see Howell being a top ninth-inning option just yet.

Miller has an ERA of 3.74 with 16 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings pitched. His sidewinding delivery makes him an ideal situational choice against left-handed hitters - who have managed only a .214 average against him this season. Unfortunately, righties have batted a robust .286 against him, which considerably lessens his viability as a potential closer.

Reyes has been hampered by biceps and shoulder injuries this year, only pitching 15 2/3 innings with a 4.02 ERA and 15 strikeouts. However, he is only a year removed from being the team's regular closer. In 2007, he recorded a career-high 26 saves in 30 opportunities. Reyes definitely has the experience closing out ballgames, but his health woes make him an uncertain option.

The Rays' surprising start can be attributed at least partially to the success of the bullpen. With Percival banged up, the team can only hope that its closer-by-committee plan will work out. Wheeler appears to be the team's No. 1 choice as closer with Percival on the disabled list. Balfour's gritty performance in a pressure situation against Boston makes him a solid "1-A" option who could very well become the guy if Rays manager Joe Maddon chooses to leave Wheeler in his customary setup role. Miller and Howell could also receive looks if Wheeler and Balfour are unable to close out the game or the team is facing a series of left-handed hitters.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Turning to the fantasy side of things, owners of Percival should place him in a disabled list spot and closely monitor his progress. On a positive note, his MRI did not show significant damage to his hamstring. However, Percival's age should be a concern; past, unrelated arm injuries left him struggling for a few years. Keeping this in mind, owners might want to consider looking into a backup plan in case Percival misses extended time or is shaky upon his return from the disabled list.

As for Tampa Bay's other options, Wheeler deserves to be added in all formats because of his expected status as the front-runner for save opportunities. Balfour has value in AL-only leagues by those looking to vulture a few saves, and he might even hold some appeal to speculative owners in mixed leagues who are willing to gamble that he earns more chances. If anything, he should help you in three categories (ERA, WHIP and K's). Miller, Reyes and Howell can be ignored for now, except in AL-only leagues, although Howell has been a contributor for some in deep mixed affairs.

It's not certain that Maddon will stay with a closer-by-committee approach for long, so someone could emerge as a clear-cut favorite to be the interim closer in the near future. However, in Maddon's 2 1/2 years as skipper, Reyes has been the closest thing he has had to a surefire option. If the manager does stick with one man, whoever that is becomes an immediate must-have in just about every fantasy format; the Rays' success this season is generating plenty of save opportunities.

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Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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