Impact Analysis: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

July 3, 2008 @ 15:53:16

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Tim Heaney

In his first season in the major leagues, Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (ankle) showed flashes of brilliance, pitching to a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first 84 1/3 major league innings. The next two seasons, however, played to a different tune for "King Felix," as the big-bodied right-hander struggled with conditioning and arm issues, causing a statistical lull during the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

However, entering 2008 in shape and, apparently, determined, Hernandez has pitched to the hype he generated since his first glimpse in the bigs, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA with an impressive strikeout rate. A freak left ankle injury sent the fantasy ace disabled list-bound, but it appears the stay may be short-lived.

Hernandez has arrived

When the Mariners called up Hernandez in 2005, the flame-throwing right-hander generated a great deal of buzz throughout MLB. After leading Triple-A as a member of the Tacoma Rainiers in ERA (2.25) and strikeouts (100) through his first 88 innings, Hernandez was called up by Seattle. The results he produced were instant and impressive. As a 19-year-old rookie, Hernandez finished the year with 77 strikeouts in only 84 1/3 innings - coupled with only 23 walks and 61 hits allowed - contributing to a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

His next season, Hernandez showed up to Mariners training camp out of shape and with problems in his shins. As a result, the right-hander saw a dramatic dip in production from the previous season. At the end of the year, Hernandez still posted 176 strikeouts and only 60 walks in 191 innings, but his ERA skyrocketed to 4.52 with a 1.34 WHIP while allowing 195 hits.

While 2007 showed signs of improvement - a 14-7 record, 165 strikeouts and 53 walks in 190 1/3 innings, with an improved 3.92 ERA - the numbers were still not anywhere close to what Hernandez had posted during the short sample size of his debut campaign.

Fast-forward to 2008, though, and Hernandez has clearly arrived. In his 16 starts up until this point, Hernandez's ERA has lowered to 2.83, coupled with a 1.25 WHIP and a .244 batting average against. In addition he has struck out 93 batters with only 38 walks. Most importantly, though, in his 108 innings pitched, he has yielded only 97 hits, the first time since '05 that he has managed to allow less than a hit per inning pitched. Moreover, with the Mariners offering him only 3.75 runs per game of support, Hernandez's 6-5 record is not as unimpressive as it may seem.

Temporary DL stint

The fact that Hernandez seems to have finally tapped into his potential makes his recent trip to the disabled list all the more discouraging. Monday, June 23, while pitching against the Mets - and hitting a grand slam off New York Mets ace Johan Santana - Hernandez was covering home plate when Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran slid in hard on a wild pitch, rolling over and in turn spraining Hernandez's left ankle.

Initially, it was thought that Hernandez would miss only one start, or perhaps no time at all. However, lingering soreness eventually led the M's to place Hernandez on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 24.

Fortunately for Hernandez and fantasy owners, the right-hander has been throwing without pain the last few days, and interim manager Jim Riggleman hinted that a start before the All-Star break - as soon as Tuesday, July 8, when Hernandez is eligible to come off the disabled list - is entirely possible.

The injury to Hernandez's ankle is the first significant instance of its type in the young pitcher's career. He landed awkwardly on his right ankle during a game in 2006 but pitched through it.

Throughout his stay in the majors, the 6-foot-3, 230-pound Hernandez has suffered multiple injuries to his right arm. Shoulder bursitis delayed his call-up in 2005, and a strained flexor-pronator muscle last year stemmed from tightness in his right elbow following a start. This year, he has shown no signs of pain in his right arm, though.

The only lingering issue with Hernandez's ankle injury would be any signs of gingerness after his return. With the left ankle being a right-handed pitcher's planting foot, a sprain to the area could lead to a pitcher of Hernandez's size being a little tenderer during his delivery, possibly leading to a dip in velocity. However, Hernandez and the team have reported no setbacks or issues during his recovery.

Potential stopgaps

Hernandez should be back sometime next week. Thus, an owner aiming to fill in a start between now and then should look specifically at matchups.

In shallower leagues, Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle and San Francisco Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez may each be an option. Friday, July 4, Buehrle will be hosting the Oakland Athletics, a weak-hitting team, and he has a 2.96 ERA in seven home starts this year. The lefty has been red-hot of late, posting a 4-0 record and 1.60 ERA in June. Sanchez has also been impressive recently, allowing more than three earned runs just once in his past nine starts. He will host the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday and has a 2.90 home ERA.

Those in deeper leagues may be inclined to go with Minnesota Twins starter Kevin Slowey, who has thrown 15 consecutive shutout innings and is pitching against the Cleveland Indians Saturday, July 5. Another option is Detroit Tigers starter Armando Galarraga, who has a 3.40 ERA on the season and is pitching in Seattle's pitcher-friendly Safeco Field July 5; he has a 2.66 road ERA.

The Mariners, meanwhile, have hurler R.A. Dickey in the rotation during Hernandez's absence. Dickey replaced Miguel Batista in the rotation in mid-June. He likely will face off against Galarraga July 5 but has a 5.32 home ERA in three starts. Dickey has little fantasy value in any leagues despite his last two quality outings since he likely isn't a long-term option and has been extremely inconsistent.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Fantasy owners of Hernandez should stand pat with the right-hander. Moreover, owners may even hope Riggleman holds out Hernandez until after the All-Star break, just to ensure the ankle is fully healed. Again, Hernandez has not reportedly has any serious problems with his ankle before, so lingering effects should not be expected unless he is rushed back.

The only situation owners should consider trading Hernandez is if they are wary of fatigue issues late in the season. In that case, wait for Hernandez to return and hurl a few good starts, then try to sell him for a lopsided offer. On the other hand, owners can try to buy low on Felix if he struggles after coming off the DL. Otherwise, though, stand pat and know that "King Felix" is for real.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)