Impact Analysis: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds

July 1, 2008 @ 09:32:53

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Herija C. Green

Prior to the 2008 season, Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Aaron Harang had asserted himself as a surefire top-tier fantasy option. Entering the prime of his career, the 30-year-old had seen his production steadily increase over the past three years, culminating in a career year in 2007 when Harang went 16-6, sporting a 3.73 ERA while striking out 218 batters in 231 2/3 innings.

This year has been a different story for the right-hander. Harang has seen his numbers rise in all the wrong categories across the board, and through 18 starts, has just three wins along with a 4.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. June was especially disappointing for the starter as well, as Harang went 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA over six starts, while allowing opponents to bat .314 against him. Fantasy owners of the Reds' ace now must determine the plan of action for a key cog in most owners' rotations from here on out.

Is he pressing?

Through the end of April, it appeared that Harang's poor win-loss record was more the product of bad luck than anything else. The San Diego State alum was off to one of the best starts of his career, sporting a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP entering May. However, Harang's record stood at a paltry 1-4 at that point.

One of the reasons for Harang's lack of wins was minimal run support. In his first seven starts, the Reds managed to plate just 22 runs for their ace - 3.14 runs per start - resulting in wasted performances.

Since those early-season run-support issues, Harang has seen his stats decline sharply. Perhaps trying to be too perfect on the mound to make up for the lack of offense behind him, Harang saw his ERA climb to 4.98 for the month of May, and then 6.00 in June. Opponents have also hit the right-hander at a much higher clip, bringing Harang's batting average against on the year to .284, the highest against the right-hander since a brief stint with the Oakland Athletics in 2003.

The lack of run support has not changed for Harang, either. The Reds are averaging just 3.28 runs per game in Harang's 18 starts this season, giving him little shot to win unless he pitches lights out.

Long ball a major problem

The most glaring statistical problems for Harang are in the strikeout and home run columns. While Harang has always pitched somewhat to contact - he has allowed more than a hit per inning pitched in every season with the exception of 2002 and 2007 - his superior control has allowed him to get away with it. In his four years as a full-time starter from 2004-07, Harang has never walked more than 56 batters. The past two seasons were particularly impressive, with the right-hander striking out 3.86 batters per walk in 2006 and then posting a career-best 4.19-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio last year.

While Harang's walk rate has still been impressive this season - he has issued just 27 free passes in 118 2/3 innings - his strikeout rate has dropped and his home run rate has severely increased.

Giving up home runs has always been one of the knocks on Harang. He surrendered a pedestrian 28 homers each of the last two seasons despite putting up impressive numbers overall. However, his home stadium, the Great American Ball Park, is notoriously conducive to turning fly balls into home runs, and Harang's splits confirm that as he allowed 18 more homers at home than on the road from 2004-07.

Also somewhat alarming is the aforementioned strikeout issues. Harang's strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) have dropped from 8.47 last year to 7.74 this season. His 7.0 K/9 in June was his lowest for a month since posting 6.75 K/9 in May 2007.

Tracing the origins

Anyone looking for a signature moment where things went south for Harang needn't look any further than May 25. That day manager Dusty Baker turned to Harang to throw four innings of relief in an 18-inning loss to the San Diego Padres, which came only three days after a start in which he threw 103 pitches. He then made another start just four days later.

Harang's numbers bear this out as well. Before the relief appearance, he was a disappointing 2-6 but had a 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 7.59 K/9 - all respectable totals. Since then, Harang is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP and 6.75 K/9. The belief is that the strain of pitching three times in eight days took a toll on Harang's body, and he has been unable to get the rest needed to recover. There have also been reports that his mechanics haven't been the same since appearing in relief, which could be a byproduct of fatigue.

Fantasy baseball outlook

With a discouraging stat line, most fantasy owners may feel like cutting ties with Harang via a trade. However, trading Harang at this juncture is the wrong move. The biggest issue with dealing the Reds' ace is that his value is about as low as it can be right now. There is virtually no chance that a deal for Harang would result in bringing back a pitcher with his potential. In fact, chances are that if Harang were dealt in a fantasy league, he would be fetching a player that features a much lower ceiling.

Harang showed flashes in June with three quality starts, including June 30 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, in which he allowed three earned runs in seven innings while striking out eight. Savvy owners might want to try a low-ball offer to get Harang on board now while his value is still close to rock bottom. If fatigue is indeed to blame, the upcoming All-Star break could be just what the doctor ordered to get Harang straightened out for a potentially big second half.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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