Impact Analysis: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

June 27, 2008 @ 15:23:03

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Herija C. Green

As the New York Yankees are seemingly putting out fires left and right concerning their starting pitching, their early-season offensive woes seem to be a thing of the past. One exception, however, is second baseman Robinson Cano, who appeared poised to have a huge year coming into this season.

As of June 26, Cano, a career .314 entering 2008, was batting just .241 with five home runs, 28 RBIs and 31 runs scored. Another negative indicator is Cano's weak on-base percentage (.282), compared with a cumulative OBP of .346 from 2005-07. The Yankees, under former manager Joe Torre's (Los Angeles Dodgers) watch, were known for their patience at the plate and making opposing pitchers work for almost every out. The team could still be finding its way under new manager Joe Girardi, and a few other factors may also be in play when attempting to explain Cano's subpar performance to date.

Why slumping?

Typically batting seventh in the Yankees lineup, Cano may have been partially affected by the early struggles of those in front of him in the order - namely outfielder Johnny Damon and shortstop Derek Jeter, who usually bat first and second, respectively. Add in catcher Jorge Posada and third baseman Alex Rodriguez missing significant playing time, and Cano simply has not had the same amount of table-setting production from his lineup mates that he enjoyed in previous seasons.

A positive for Cano to look forward to is his second-half batting average (.303 in 2005, .365 in 2006 and .343 in 2007). Also, Posada and Rodriguez have healed up, and the team's offense overall has improved significantly over the past month. Certainly, Cano has a long way to go to reach the same kind of production he put up over the past three seasons.

Table: Cano's statistics (2005-07)

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	NYY	132	522	78	155	14	62	16	68	.297	.320	.458	.778
2006	NYY	122	482	62	165	15	78	18	54	.342	.365	.525	.890
2007	NYY	160	617	93	189	19	97	39	85	.306	.353	.488	.841

Being that Cano sported one of the AL's top averages just two years ago, his slump seems a bit more perplexing. Over-aggressiveness may be a factor with Cano, as he has seen just 3.29 pitches per at-bat, which ranks in the bottom 10 of the league. He is striking out at a slower pace this season (once per 11.4 at-bats) than in 2007 (one per 7.3), but he has also drawn just two walks in June - another telltale sign he isn't working deep into counts.

Another school of thought is that Cano has put too much pressure on himself this season, trying to earn a spot in the upcoming All-Star Game, which will be the last ever played in Yankee Stadium. He could also be attempting to justify the four-year, $30 million extension he signed in February.

Whatever the case may be, Cano getting back on track could be a significant factor in which way the rest of the season goes for the Yankees.

Fantasy baseball outlook

While Cano has had a hard time getting going in the past (he is a .237 lifetime hitter in April), those struggles have never lingered this far into a season. The Yankees have minimal options in reserve and are unlikely to sit Cano, even for a few days, so he'll probably need to work through it while continuing to be part of the everyday lineup. It's encouraging that he went 6-for-9 with a homer in a recently completed series versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Despite his struggles, fantasy owners in all mixed leagues should still keep Cano, but explore other starting options if he shows no sign of coming out his slump by the All-Star break. Owners in AL-only leagues do not have many other options available and should ride it out with Cano all season. Given his tremendous track record in the second half of seasons, owners might want to make a play to get Cano on board at a reduced price in the event that he once again posts big numbers after the All-Star break.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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