Impact Analysis: Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays

June 24, 2008 @ 14:14:03

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Tim Heaney

In the midst of a breakout season worthy of consideration for the American League Cy Young Award, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Shaun Marcum (elbow) has been derailed by persistent soreness in his right elbow caused by strained ligaments; he was sent to the 15-day disabled list Saturday, June 21. Marcum will be eligible to return July 6, though team officials are uncertain at this time if he will do so. Immediately replacing Marcum on the Blue Jays' active roster is outfielder Adam Lind, who was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse.

After a mediocre start Wednesday, June 18, against the Milwaukee Brewers in which the 26-year-old right-hander gave up four runs in six innings, team doctors conducted an MRI on Marcum's ailing right elbow and concluded that a trip to the disabled list was necessary. Blue Jays coaches have stated their belief that the injury is not serious and insisted that the move is simply precautionary.

A secret injury and the specialist

A potentially troubling aspect of this situation revolves around the fact that Marcum has apparently been suffering from discomfort in his elbow for several weeks, according to Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. "He's been nursing it for a couple of weeks now," Arnsberg said. "We knew there was a little something in there but it never altered him from pitching."

Despite their assertions to the contrary, team officials were concerned about the status of Marcum's elbow enough that they sent him for an evaluation with renowned orthopedic surgeon and arm specialist Dr. James Andrews Monday, June 23. Andrews cleared Marcum to begin a throwing program as early as Saturday, June 28.

Roadblock to a breakout campaign

Never tagged with the dreaded "injury-prone" label, Marcum now faces the question of whether or not he has the endurance to complete an entire season as a starter. Brought up initially in September 2005 as a reliever, Marcum pitched 131 combined innings in 2006 at Triple-A and Toronto before tossing 159 innings in his first full season in the bigs in 2007. This body of work would suggest that Marcum was ready for a spike in his innings this year, but we still have to be wary of the problems that such an increase could entail.

Marcum began the 2007 season as a relatively ineffective relief pitcher, making 13 appearances and compiling a 6.06 ERA, before the Blue Jays made him a starter permanently May 13, 2007. Finishing the season with a 12-6 record (11-4 as a starter), Marcum managed a 4.13 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP while striking out 122 and walking 49. As the 2008 season began, many believed that he could be on the verge of a breakout.

This year has been Marcum's finest to date as a professional. In 15 starts, Marcum has been dominant to the tune of a 2.65 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, although his 5-4 record in part has resulted from an average of 3.92 runs of support per game. Furthermore, Marcum has developed such effective command of his arsenal that he is striking out 7.84 batters per nine innings (86 K's over 98 2/3 innings) and has only allowed opponents a .198 batting average despite the fact that he does not have an overpowering fastball. Marcum's emergence as one of the top starters in the AL is not a fluke.

Prognosis

When any pitcher is shelved because of arm issues, we have to be concerned. Although no one from the Blue Jays has publicly mentioned the possibility of a lengthy rehab or surgery, the organization is not exactly notable for its honesty with regard to the health of its players. They reportedly withheld information regarding closer B.J. Ryan's health during spring training last season, and he eventually required Tommy John surgery in May. It could be taken as a bad sign that the organization sent Marcum to see Andrews.

However, the fact that Andrews cleared Marcum so soon after his placement on the DL is good news for the Blue Jays and fantasy owners. At this point, it is reasonable to think that Marcum will be able to return to the Blue Jays rotation sometime in early to mid-July. Considering that the Blue Jays have had a tough go in the AL East and do not appear to be contenders at this stage of the season, the team likely will not feel pressured to rush him back.

In the meantime

The Jays will likely recall a pitcher from Syracuse in time for the team's home game against the Atlanta Braves Saturday, June 28, the next time the Jays will require a fifth starter. The choices could be John Parrish, David Purcey and Kane Davis.

The 30-year-old Parrish, who has a 4.63 ERA in 161 major league games, including 10 starts, has had an outstanding campaign at Syracuse, going 10-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 15 appearances (11 starts).

Purcey, a top prospect who walked 11 batters in 7 1/3 innings during separate spot starts with Toronto earlier this year, is 6-6 with a 2.94 ERA with Syracuse.

Davis turns 33 this week and has a 5.53 ERA in 107 career major league games, with just two starts. He's 6-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) at Triple-A.

The good news for fantasy owners is that there are likely decent options on the waiver wire depending on the depth and competitiveness of your league.

Minnesota Twins starter Scott Baker has made four consecutive quality starts dating back to June 5 and is widely available. Despite some minor injury trouble back in May, Baker has exhibited excellent control and an ability to make batters miss; he has walked only 10 and has struck out 49 in 57 innings. He might not see a lot of wins pitching for the Twins, but he probably can help you in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.

If wins are what you need in deeper mixed formats, you could look into Milwaukee Brewers starter Seth McClung. Since a May 29 shellacking from the Atlanta Braves, McClung is 3-1 in four starts, with a 2.55 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. You'll want to keep an eye on his matchups, but in the right situation he could fill in nicely.

Fantasy outlook

All things considered, expect Marcum to return sometime around or after the All-Star break and to continue to be effective in the short term. The danger for Marcum could come in August and September, when his workload could start to catch up to him.

Stash Marcum on your DL for now and hope that he can return to form when he comes back. If his first few starts out of the box are strong, you might consider exploring trade options to capitalize on his value in case his arm tires later in the season.

Parrish and Davis could each be an interesting short-term addition in AL-only leagues given their success at Syracuse, but it would not be wise to consider them in mixed formats given their mediocre track records in the majors. Purcey has more upside but is risky because of his failures in Toronto earlier this season.

We have not said much about him, but the call-up of Lind could be big news for fantasy owners in the second half of the season. Hitting .328 with six home runs and 50 RBIs at Triple-A, Lind went 2-for-3 with a solo home run in his return to the Blue Jays Sunday, June 22. Lind, who batted .053 during his first 2008 stint with the club, is expected to play every day in his latest turn. Possibly off the radar in less competitive leagues, the youngster should be on your watch list in the coming days and weeks.

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