Impact Analysis: Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs

June 24, 2008 @ 09:53:45

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Tim Heaney

An unfamiliar sight welcomed Chicago sports fans this past weekend - a meeting between two first-place teams, the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs. It was the first time in 11 years of interleague play that Chicago's baseball teams met while atop each league's Central division.

The ecstasy for Cubs fans quickly disappeared Saturday, June 21, though, when it was announced that team ace Carlos Zambrano (shoulder) was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a minor strain in his right shoulder. Zambrano had been yanked from his last start at the Tampa Bay Rays after 6 2/3 innings when catcher Geovany Soto and manager Lou Piniella saw Zambrano cringe in pain after throwing a pitch.

Just a few days later, the usually durable pitcher, who has started at least 31 games every year since the 2003 season, was in an unfamiliar spot: on the DL. Zambrano said he only needs to miss one start, but the Cubs are being careful with their ace. This is only his second career DL stint; his last trip came in 2002, when he was out for almost a month with a strain in his right elbow.

Exchanging K's for consistency?

Zambrano has been a fantasy ace for the past four seasons and has posted an ERA below 4.00 in each full major league campaign. Last year was a bit shaky for the right-hander, though, as Zambrano allowed five or more earned runs in nine of his 34 starts. However, the streaky play also came with its ups. There was no doubt that the Chicago starter showed some of the best talent in the majors as he finished the year with a career-high 18 wins while striking out 177 batters. He finished with a career-worst 3.95 ERA, and his strikeout total declined from 210 the previous season.

This year has been a change of pace for Zambrano. In 16 appearances, only twice has Zambrano yielded more than four earned runs. Zambrano's 3.13 ERA is at its lowest since 2004 (2.75), and his walk rate has dwindled to a career-low 3.05 per nine innings.

However, the 27-year-old righty hasn't struck out hitters the way he did over the past few years. His average of 5.76 K's per nine innings ranks well below his best mark of 8.83 in 2006. A testament to this number is the fact that Zambrano has not struck out more than seven batters in a game yet this year - a feat he accomplished seven times just one season ago.

In addition, Zambrano seemingly has pitched to contact more than he has in his entire career. Opponents are hitting .259 against him, a mark higher than in any of his full major league seasons, and he is allowing almost a hit an inning (105 hits in 106 1/3 innings pitched). However, he has allowed only seven home runs this season after yielding at least 20 in each of the last three years.

Despite a lull in strikeout numbers along with a higher batting average against, Zambrano's 8-3 record and 3.13 ERA have set him up for one of his best seasons since 2004, making his injury that much more disheartening.

Marshall one of many options

Left-hander Sean Marshall is expected to be called up from Triple-A Iowa and likely will be activated Tuesday, June 24, to take Zambrano's spot in the rotation against the Baltimore Orioles at Wrigley Field. In 2007, Marshall pitched well, going 7-8 in 21 games, including 19 starts, with a 3.92 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Control issues led to a demotion for Marshall this year; in just over eight innings of work out of the bullpen, Marshall walked an alarming seven batters, contributing to a 1.73 WHIP.

However, at Iowa, Marshall has clearly taken care of his command, walking only six batters in 31 2/3 innings of work while striking out 25 batters. If his minor league numbers (1-1, 3.41 ERA in seven starts) are any indication that Marshall is returning to his 2007 form, he could be a serviceable fill-in.

Aside from Marshall, plenty of options could still be available on the waiver wire for the two weeks Zambrano is expected to miss. Minnesota Twins starter Scott Baker continues to look strong, allowing seven earned runs while striking out 20 batters in 24 innings since being activated from the disabled list.

San Diego Padres hurler Josh Banks continues to look like a formidable option, posting a 1.62 ERA since being called up for San Diego. The Padres host Minnesota Wednesday, June 25.

The Milwaukee Brewers' Manny Parra and the Detroit Tigers' Armando Galarraga have both looked exceptional of late. Parra has won five straight starts; while his 1.61 WHIP and control issues are disheartening, his ERA has dropped from 5.86 to 4.29 in his last 10 starts.

Galarraga, meanwhile, continues to look like a viable candidate even in shallow leagues, sporting a 2.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP to go along with four wins over the last 30 days. The young Tigers starter has not allowed an earned run in his last two appearances (13 innings).

If owners choose to play matchups until Zambrano returns, Florida Marlins starter Scott Olsen would be a solid choice. Olsen, who has looked good at Dolphin Stadium (3-3, 2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), will pitch at home against the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks this week.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Fantasy owners should remain confident with Zambrano and hold on to him until he is eligible to come off the DL July 4. Based on the fact that he was unhappy when informed he was placed on the DL - reports suggested Zambrano took out his anger on the walls of the clubhouse showers - it appears the starter feels healthy enough to pitch right now.

For the time being, either play matchups or pick up a hot starter if you need to keep up with your innings pace. As long as conditioning issues don't hinder Zambrano for the rest of the year (he had a 7.06 ERA in August last year), he should remain a legitimate top-of-the-line starter from here on out.

Marshall could be a moderately productive short-term addition in NL-only leagues if he shows improvement in his control in the big leagues. He's also someone to watch in deep mixed formats.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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