Impact Analysis: Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 19, 2008 @ 14:28:26

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Richard Garcia

Last season, Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Brad Penny (shoulder) appeared primed to break out and emerge as a top-tier fantasy ace. The big-bodied right-hander posted career bests in wins (16), losses (four) and ERA (3.03). He represented the National League as the starting pitcher in the All-Star game.

This season was expected to be no different. The Dodgers added all-time great Joe Torre as their skipper and made a few splashes in free agency that included center fielder Andruw Jones in an attempt to make a run at the National League pennant. Thus far, the Dodgers' plan has not gone accordingly, and the team rests four games under .500. Penny has been no better, sporting a 5.88 ERA. Instead of earning a spot on the All-Star team, Penny found his way to the disabled list Tuesday, June 17, with inflammation of the bursa sac and mild tendonitis in his right shoulder.

An MRI revealed no structural damage to his shoulder, and Penny was prescribed rest along with rehabilitation. He could begin throwing as early as Friday, June 20, and he will be eligible to return June 30.

First-half stud looks like first-half dud

Penny has always been a first-half fantasy stalwart. With 27 more career wins and an ERA 34 points lower prior to the All-Star break, managers have always salivated over Penny's numbers early in the season.

Last season was particularly impressive for Penny. Before the All-Star festivities, Penny was sitting at 10-1 with a microscopic 2.39 ERA. True to form, the Dodgers ace fell off a bit in the second half, but still managed passable numbers (6-3, 3.84 ERA).

The 2008 season has produced different results for Penny, though. The right-hander is sputtering along at 5-9, a record that includes seven straight losses, with a 5.88 ERA and 1.60 WHIP - not even back-of-the-rotation numbers.

The struggles have come from all over for Penny. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings (5.16) is at its lowest point while his rate of walks per nine innings (3.8) is the highest it has been since he started just three games with the Dodgers in 2004.

Opponents are batting Penny around at a .304 clip this year after hitting .260 against him last season. His WHIP has ballooned from 1.31 in 2007 to 1.60 through 15 starts this year, and he has surrendered nine home runs this season after allowing nine all of last year.

Taking this all into account, the first half is when Penny is supposed to be his most dominant. However, after a career-year last season, Penny is in danger of following that up with one of his worst.

With this being the first such DL trip for Penny in three years, fantasy owners have to be a little concerned. During his years with the Florida Marlins, Penny was a frequenter of the disabled list, to the point that he was impossible to rely on in fantasy baseball.

Fantasy owners are likely questioning whether Penny should still own a spot on their rosters. Now is the time for owners to look for a replacement in all fantasy formats.

Mix-and-match until a return

With Penny only expected to miss two weeks, fantasy owners could choose to play matchups for the next couple of weeks or look for a more reliable starter who can take Penny's spot if he is unable to right his ship.

The Dodgers will look to Eric Stults, who was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas Tuesday, June 17. Stults put up underwhelming numbers in six games (wto starts) last season, going 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA. He has been decent at Las Vegas, sporting a 3.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 67 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings pitched. He had an impressive debut for the Dodgers Thursday, June 19, when he allowed just one earned run while striking out five batters in six innings of work. He might have been sent down after Penny's short stint on the DL, but the Dodgers also placed starter Hiroki Kurodo (shoulder) on the disabled list. The opening is there for Stults as a result. Considering Stults was hit around in his limited time in the majors last year, he is worth nothing more than an add in NL-only leagues for now.

Pitchers Jorge Campillo (2.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 28 strikeouts in his last 32 2/3 innings pitched) and Jo-Jo Reyes (1-0 in his last two starts, allowing just three earned runs in 15 innings) of the Atlanta Braves should be given a shot, considering their performances of late. Campillo is a favorite of manager Bobby Cox and seems to be becoming a fixture in the rotation, although he doesn't have overpowering stuff. Reyes has a solid strikeout rate, but his ride could resemble a roller coaster's.

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Aaron Laffey may be available in shallow leagues. The young starter has a 2.98 ERA on the season with a 1.22 WHIP and has allowed more than four earned runs in a start just once.

Detroit Tigers starter Armando Galarraga has picked up three consecutive victories while allowing just two earned runs during that time. He leads the club in victories (seven) and WHIP (1.07) while leading all Tigers starting pitchers in ERA (3.03).

Finally, Florida Marlins starters worth a look include Andrew Miller (3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in his last 34 innings) and Ricky Nolasco, who is coming off an impressive outing against the Tampa Bay Rays in which he allowed two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, including 12 strikeouts and only one walk. Nolasco is tied for the club lead with seven wins. However, the 25-year-old has been up and down in his short career and could give owners headaches.

Fantasy outlook

Considering Penny's ceiling, owners should stash the righty until he comes off the disabled list as long as they have the room. His absence is only expected to last two weeks, and when he returns from injury, the rest could help Penny get back on track. Torre believes that the reason for Penny's recent struggles was the discomfort he was experiencing.

At the same time, though, owners should not expect a return to his '07 form. He has always been better in the first half of the season, so hoping for ace-caliber numbers from here on out may be unrealistic. In addition, considering his strikeout rates have fallen while his walk rates have risen in recent seasons, and the troubles he has had keeping the ball in the park, Penny may be nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation fantasy option from here on out.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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