Impact Analysis: Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

June 13, 2008 @ 09:50:27

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Herija C. Green

One of the constants over Chicago Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano's tenure with the club has been injuries. Each of the past two years, the 40-home run, 30-stolen base threat has endured stints on the disabled list. This past Wednesday, June 11, Soriano was hit on the hand by a pitch from Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jeff Bennett, causing a broken left ring finger. Fantasy owners will need to find a temporary replacement for the Chicago leadoff hitter, too, because Soriano is expected to miss four to six weeks of action.

A history of injuries

Soriano has seen his fair share of injuries since with the Cubs. In 2007, the outfielder was plagued by a hamstring injury throughout April that inevitably cut down on his stolen base numbers, swiping 19 bases last year after stealing 41 in 2006 with the Washington Nationals.

Then, later in the season, Soriano tore his quadriceps and was forced to spend a couple of weeks on the disabled list. The two injuries resulted in the 32-year-old only playing in 135 games in 2007.

This season, the trend of injuries has continued. Soriano missed time in late April due to a strained calf muscle that has resulted in once again a drop in stolen bases - he has just seven steals in 51 games this season.

Thus, the broken ring finger is just the latest in what has been a disturbing run of injuries over the past two seasons.

Pattern of solid bounce backs

If any positive light can be shed on the situation, it is the fact that Soriano has managed to bounce back from injuries effectively the past two seasons.

While the outfielder struggled briefly after straining his hamstring early in 2007, Soriano ended up donning impressive June numbers that included a .336 batting average with 11 home runs and 18 RBIs.

The case was the same in September, as coming off of his torn quad muscle, Soriano put up Ruth-ian numbers that included 14 home runs and 27 RBIs in the final month.

This year, after suffering the calf injury, no ill effects have been seen in Soriano's offensive totals. He has shown more power than ever in his career, slugging 15 home runs already, and he has driven in an impressive 40 runs from the leadoff spot.

Options to replace Soriano

Two problems loom large in attempting to replace Soriano: first that he is consistently a top-tier offensive force, and second that one of his best months last season came during the month of June.

In Chicago's organization, three players may see an increase in playing time with Soriano sidelined. Utility man Mark DeRosa and outfielder Reed Johnson are the two obvious choices for Cubs manager Lou Piniella to benefit. DeRosa is a viable option for owners to scoop up if he is actually still available in any leagues, as he has sustained a .313 average coupled with an uncharacteristically high eight home runs on the year. Johnson, meanwhile, led off much of the time in April when Soriano hit the disabled list, and could see similar duties this time around. He is a viable replacement in NL-only leagues, but his numbers (.267-2-28 with four stolen bases) are not blowing anybody away.

The Cubs also recalled outfielder Eric Patterson from Triple-A Iowa. Patterson led off the first game of Soriano's absence, going 1-for-5 at the plate. While Patterson's speed may be enticing down the road - he has 123 steals and a .301 average in his four minor league seasons - it is best to hold off on picking him up and simply add him to your watch list considering his major league service includes only 19 at-bats.

Glancing at the waiver wire, managers in shallow leagues should have quite a few alternatives to explore considering the outfield depth this year. One option is Texas Rangers outfielder David Murphy (.289-10-47), who has gotten stronger as the year has progressed, hitting .342 with six home runs thus far in June.

San Francisco Giants outfielder Randy Winn (.300-5-26 with 10 stolen bases) is also a viable candidate to replace Soriano. Chicago White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez may have outfield eligibility in some leagues, and he has hit .405 with two home runs and 10 RBIs in June.

In deeper leagues, Giants outfielder Fred Lewis (.276, 43 runs and 12 steals), Cleveland Indians outfielder Ben Francisco (.309-3-20) and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Luke Scott (.277-10-25) should all prove to be capable stopgaps for Soriano.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Just about every owner should be advised not to drop or sell Soriano at this point. Considering his strong close to the 2007 season, if an owner is in the playoff hunt, holding on to Soriano's bat and finding a temporary replacement could pay serious dividends down the road.

For owners on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, Soriano should still be held on to unless an owner is willing to pay equal value for his services. However, considering the fact that the veteran has an injury history and may miss more than a month, it is unlikely a fellow league owner will offer a viable package in return.

The best decision may be to stay the course, and anticipate Soriano approaching last year's dominant September.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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