Impact Analysis: Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays

June 12, 2008 @ 13:58:17

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Richard Garcia

Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill (concussion) was injured Thursday, May 29, after colliding with shortstop David Eckstein. After sitting out seven consecutive games with a mild concussion, Hill was placed on the disabled list Saturday, June 7, to make room for outfielder Vernon Wells and infielder John McDonald; the move is retroactive to May 30. With Hill out, infielder Marco Scutaro has been occupying his spot in the field. 

A letdown for owners

Hill entered the season with a lot of potential as a late-round sleeper at the second base position. Hill, 26, ended his 2007 campaign with a .291 average, 17 home runs and 78 RBIs in his third season in the bigs. He had owners hoping for a breakout campaign this season, improving upon his numbers from a year ago. Instead, Hill has regressed to the numbers he put up in the 2006 season.

Hill has struggled mightily this season, managing only a .263 average, which is 21 points below his career mark. Also, with only two homers and 20 RBIs, Hill is on pace for five homers and 47 RBIs, well below his marks from a season ago. Hill started the season relatively strong; however, he put up a .255 average in May with no homers and only seven RBIs prior to his concussion. His May splits are nearly identical to a year ago (.257-3-9), with slightly more power shown last season. In addition, the Blue Jays have struggled to score runs this season and Hill's numbers have suffered along with the rest of the team.

Only a mild concussion

Hill received only a mild concussion after colliding with Eckstein. This is good news for fantasy owners, as severe concussions can linger and be a long-term concern for players (just ask retired third baseman Corey Koskie). However, since it is mild, Hill should be back to full working order when he returns from the DL.

Initial reports indicate that he is feeling much better and has been symptom-free of his concussion for three days straight as of June 11. Trainers require seven symptom-free days prior to clearing the player to take the field. As such, it seems that Hill is close to returning. He is eligible to come off the DL June 13 but is highly unlikely to make that date. Scutaro is expected to continue to handle the majority of innings at second until Hill returns. Scutaro, however, shouldn't be on fantasy rosters outside of AL-only leagues.

Other second base options

Owners looking to replace Hill for the remainder of this week or next may want to target a few players. Chicago White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez has been excelling at the plate since obtaining the second base job when Juan Uribe went on the disabled list. Ramirez is hitting .293 this season with four homers, 17 runs and 17 RBIs. He has only three stolen bases on the season, but he is fairly speedy and could improve in that category. Uribe, who returned from the disabled list Saturday, May 31, has yet to have an at-bat since May 15. With Ramirez firmly entrenched at the position, he is a solid option for those looking to replace Hill

Minnesota Twins second baseman Alexi Casilla is another option. Since being recalled Sunday, May 11, Casilla has become the Twins' everyday second baseman. He is hitting .330 with three homers, 19 RBIs and 15 runs scored. As the Twins primary No. 2 hitter, he should continue to score runs at a good clip for a fairly productive Twins offense. However, don't expect his power to continue. He hasn't hit more than three home runs in a season at either the minor or major league levels. Casilla has yet to showcase his speed on the base paths with only two steals this season. However, he has shown in his minor league career that he is capable of much more, swiping 50 bags in 2006. Casilla should be a more than capable replacement for Hill while he is out.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Hill is expected to be returning from his injury shortly, but his concussion may have been the final straw for fantasy owners holding out hope that he would break out of his slump. Owners sticking with Hill should expect improvements in his average and run totals (with outfielder Wells back in the lineup), but little else from here on out.

The two aforementioned replacements (Ramirez and Casilla) may be better suited for fantasy rosters at this point. With the quality of second basemen possibly available in shallow mixed leagues, fantasy owners are better suited releasing Hill. Hill, however, should continue to hold a roster spot in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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