Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Undervalued players: fantasy football sleepers

August 29, 2008 @ 14:33:28

By Herija C. Green and Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini and Tim Heaney

Each season fantasy owners win championships due to key players unexpectedly coming out of the woodwork to help them when it is least expected. Some of these players are returning from injury-shortened seasons, some trying to rebound from down years and others are simply trying to prove themselves in their first years as starters. Read on to find out which undervalued players may be flying under the radar of your competition!

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme | Carolina Panthers

Owners tend to have short-term memories in the "What have you done for me lately?" world of fantasy football. We submit to you the veteran Delhomme, who is coming off reconstructive elbow surgery after playing in just three games last season. Before that, Delhomme had thrown for better than 3,200 yards in three of his first four years in Carolina and averaged 21.5 touchdowns per season during that time. He was off a great start in 2007, having thrown for eight touchdowns against just one interception before being injured during the second half of Week 3. He will be without his No. 1 receiver, Steve Smith (suspension), for the first two weeks, which may cause some concern. The addition of wideout D.J. Hackett isn't a bad short-term bandage, and it's only two weeks. Clearly, there is some risk involved given the rarity of Tommy John surgery for NFL quarterbacks, too, but if Delhomme could return to form he may provide midround value at what figures to be the relatively low price tag of a late-round draft choice as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers

Everything seems to be in place for Rodgers to succeed in his first season as the team's starter following the retirement, unretirement and trade of quarterback Brett Favre (New York Jets). He has one of the NFL's deepest receiving corps, a solid ground game and an underrated offensive line anchored by a pair of veteran tackles. He has been able to learn the offense for the past three seasons behind Favre and should be much better prepared than your average first-year starter. Of course, Rodgers still needs to go out and do it. He looked good when he played in 2007, completing 20 of his 28 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown, although he has been a bit of a mixed bag this preseason. There are concerns about his durability after getting injured in limited action in both 2006 and 2007, but he has the potential to be a weak No. 1 fantasy quarterback this season. However, draft him as a strong No. 2.

Vince Young | Tennessee Titans

"VY" hit the wall full on last year, posting a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9-17; he rushed for only 395 yards and three touchdowns. However, fantasy owners are holding off too long on drafting the talented quarterback. Young might not be the prettiest passer, but he has the potential to be better than his early 13th-round spot in drafts would suggest. The Titans have added a couple of weapons in their passing game - tight end Alge Crumpler, wide receivers Justin McCareins and Justin Gage, running back Chris Johnson. The experienced Crumpler should provide Young with a safety blanket he did not have last year. Crumpler has experience working with running quarterbacks from his time in Atlanta. Johnson is a lightning-fast runner with good hands. The club featured a top-five rushing attack, which should keep the pressure off Young. The Titans have also welcomed back offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger for his second go-round in Tennessee. Heimerdinger helped develop former Titans quarterback Steve McNair into a high-percentage quarterback, even prolific at times, during his previous tenure in Tennessee. Young will have another year and another training camp under his belt. He is a passing-rushing threat you should snag as a high-reward No. 2 if he drops to his average draft position.

Running backs

Thomas Jones | New York Jets

Despite carrying the ball 310 times in his first season with the Jets, Jones managed just one rushing touchdown, and his 3.6 yards-per-carry average was his lowest average since his second year in the league. Poor play from quarterbacks Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington (Miami Dolphins) did Jones no favors as defenses stacked the box, daring the Jets to beat them downfield. With quarterback Brett Favre now calling the signals, that concern should be alleviated. The offensive line was a major issue as well, which the Jets tried to address this offseason by signing free-agent offensive linemen Alan Faneca and Damien Woody. Their addition, along with the continued development of center Nick Mangold and tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, should help turn a weakness into a potential strength in 2008. Consider the touchdown drought a fluke and focus more on the 1,221 rushing yards per season Jones has averaged since 2005. He should be considered a strong No. 3 back, and he has No. 2 upside.

Ricky Williams | Miami Dolphins

Williams' reinstatement into the NFL didn't last very long as after just six carries the former Pro Bowler sustained a torn muscle in his chest that forced him onto Injured Reserve. Having survived the purge in Miami following the hiring of vice president of football operations Bill Parcells, Williams is now in position to become a quality fantasy producer now that he has surpassed running back Ronnie Brown (knee, thumb) on the team's depth chart. Brown is coming off a season-ending anterior cruciate ligament tear and has been slowed temporarily by a thumb injury. Williams should see the majority of the workload, at least early in the season, as Brown makes his way back. For a torn ACL, it is roughly 18 months before a player is back to his former self. Despite being 31 years old, Williams has relatively low mileage on his body, with only 174 total carries at the NFL level during the past four seasons combined. He'd make an interesting choice as a weak No. 3 or strong No. 4 running back; he's a solid pick or potential value around the seventh or eighth round, but some owners are willing to take him in the sixth. He is capable of posting No. 2 stats if healthy.

Willie Parker | Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers surprised many by taking running back Rashard Mendenhall in the first round of this year's NFL Draft. For some, it signaled the end of Parker's days as the lone option in the Steel City. However, Parker is dropping just a little too far for our liking. He ran for 1,316 yards last year, including eight 100-yard games. He was leading the league in rushing at the time of his leg injury, from which he has recovered. The addition of Mendenhall will likely impact Parker's carries, but offensive coordinator Bruce Arians plans to introduce a new Pony package in the offense that will utilize both runners in the backfield. It is highly unusual for a running back to receive 300-plus carries, like Parker did, and find the end zone only twice. Figure Parker can show at least some improvement in that department this year; he ran for 13 the previous year. Owners are generally taking Parker in the middle of the fourth round. Parker has the makings of good value as a low No. 2 or high No. 3 running back.

Larry Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs

Johnson (foot), the victim of a cracked bone in his right foot, saw his season end in Week 9 last year. Johnson's injury-plagued 2007 season followed back-to-back seasons of a combined 3,539 rushing yards and 37 touchdowns. This offseason, Johnson has been able to practice without any limp or pain in his foot. Head coach Herman Edwards plans to lighten the load on Johnson with Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith in the mix, so the days of 30-plus carries per game look to be over. That should limit Johnson's chances of sustaining an injury or wearing down. The Chiefs are once again expected to rely heavily on the running game. Considering his past numbers and immense potential, he could be undervalued as a pick at the end of the first round, which is his current average draft position. There is some risk taking him, but he could give fantasy owners a huge payoff, and he should at least be a low-end No. 1 back.

Chris Perry | Cincinnati Bengals

Beset by injuries during his professional career, Perry has appeared in just 22 games over his first four seasons and none since November 2006. Despite the injury woes, Perry is undeniably talented both as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. He has been running with authority this preseason, too. He has not only overtaken running back Kenny Watson as the primary backup and third-down option behind halfback Rudi Johnson (hamstring), he currently sits atop the depth chart at the position. Perry has averaged 4.6 yards per carry in his abbreviated NFL career, and he caught 51 passes in 2005. Johnson is coming off his own injury-filled season, has not yet demonstrated that he's the man and has been mentioned as trade bait. That means Perry has the look of an intriguing sleeper, despite the injury risk he carries.

Wide receivers

Donald Driver | Green Bay Packers

Overshadowed by the emergence of receiver Greg Jennings in 2007, Driver quietly racked up more than 80 receptions and 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive season. While some might consider the loss of quarterback Brett Favre (New York Jets) a detriment, the insertion of quarterback Aaron Rodgers into the starting role might result in increased production from the veteran. The team figures to work the ball underneath more often with Rodgers at the helm, which plays to Driver's strength as a physical presence over the middle that is difficult to bring down. He has never been a huge factor in the red zone because of his size (6-foot, 190 pounds), but he is among the league's steadiest options at the position and a great No. 3 fantasy receiver that is capable of producing at a No. 2 level. Owners in point-per-reception formats should move him up a bit.

Reggie Brown | Philadelphia Eagles

It was almost certainly a disappointing season for owners that drafted Brown (hamstring) on the strength of his 17.7 yards-per-reception average and eight touchdowns in 2006. Brown actually set a career high with 61 receptions in 2007, but his average dropped to 12.8 yards per catch. The former second-round pick has had the unenviable task of following in the footsteps of receiver Terrell Owens (Dallas Cowboys), which may have led to him being unfairly labeled a disappointment in fantasy circles. Judged on his merits, Brown has done a solid job; now with quarterback Donovan McNabb and tight end L.J. Smith back at full health, Brown could be ready to realize his potential. Assuming he overcomes a nagging hamstring injury (he's expected to be ready for the opener), he is the default No. 1 receiver now that Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) is out for about four to six weeks. Keep in mind Brown is entering his fourth NFL campaign, a year in which many receivers truly emerge. He's a low-end No. 3 receiver heading into the 2008 season, but he has the potential to be a midrange No. 2.

Santonio Holmes | Pittsburgh Steelers

Holmes quietly emerged as a force during his second NFL season, amassing 942 yards on 52 receptions (a league-best 18.1 yards per reception) with nine touchdowns in just 13 games. He was fairly consistent, as well, accounting for more than 50 receiving yards in all but three of his games. While his ability to get deep and make big plays has already been on display, he could be in line for a true breakout season in 2008. Receiver Hines Ward turned 32 during the offseason and this could be the year when Holmes moves ahead of Ward to become quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's No. 1 target. Furthermore, Ward has experienced a continual decrease in production and games played each of the past three seasons. Consider him a quality selection as a No. 2 receiver that could produce like a weak No. 1 option.

Patrick Crayton | Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' fifth-year receiver improved his numbers for the third straight season last year. Crayton is the No. 2 receiver in the Cowboys' prolific offense. The 'Boys ranked fourth in the league in passing offense (256.6 yards per game) last year; they scored 36 times through the air. Pro Bowlers receiver Terrell Owens and tight end Jason Witten draw plenty of attention from opposing defenses and should open up plenty of room for Crayton. It is surprising that fantasy owners aren't higher on him. His average draft position has him falling in the middle of the eighth round. If you can snag him at this spot or a bit later as a weak No. 3 or high-upside No. 4 receiver with big-play potential, consider doing so.

Sidney Rice | Minnesota Vikings

While Rice's 31 catches and 396 receiving yards may not have opened many eyes last season, the then-rookie flashed the ability to be a force in the red zone with his 6-foot-4, 202-pound frame. He ended the year with a team-high four touchdown receptions, including three in his final six games. The signing of wideout Bernard Berrian solidifies one starting spot, but Rice figures to start on the other side with veteran receiver Bobby Wade, who led the club with 54 catches for 647 yards in 2007, working out of the slot. Obviously the development of third-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (knee) is critical to the success of the passing game, but he looked improved down the stretch; his four highest single-game yardage totals for the season coming in the final five weeks. Jackson has a sprained medial collateral ligament, but it's not considered serious. Look to select Rice late in drafts as a fifth receiver with intriguing upside.

Tight ends

Alge Crumpler | Tennessee Titans

Crumpler has been going the wrong way statistically since peaking with a 65-catch, 877-yard campaign back in 2005. He remained solid in 2006 but struggled with injuries and the loss of Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick (incarcerated) during a tumultuous 2007 season. He was released by Atlanta in February and signed with the Titans, where he could reprise his role as the security blanket for a mobile passer in quarterback Vince Young. Crumpler averaged 56 receptions for 810 yards and 6.33 touchdowns per season from 2004-06 with Vick at the helm. In comparison, he managed just 43 catches, 498 yards and four touchdowns per year in '03 (when Vick played in just five games) and '07. He has been earning great reviews from observers in the Tennessee camp. Pick him up in the later rounds as a reserve that could re-emerge as a low-end No. 1 tight end.

L.J. Smith | Philadelphia Eagles

After accounting for 111 receptions, 1,293 yards and eight touchdowns during the previous two seasons, Smith suffered an injury-riddled 2007 campaign that resulted in career lows across the board. Smith appeared in just 10 games after missing only one in his first four NFL seasons and finished with 22 catches for 236 yards and a single touchdown. The Eagles demonstrated they still believe strongly in the 28-year-old during the offseason when they slapped the franchise tag on him, ensuring he would return for 2008. Smith signed just the one-year tender, which means 2008 is another contract year for the Rutgers product. Receiver Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) is also out for anywhere from four to six weeks, so the Eagles will have to rely on other targets. With Smith's healthy return coinciding with quarterback Donovan McNabb entering what could be a make-or-break campaign, the tight end has the look of a nice sleeper candidate as a low No. 1 or, more safely, a No. 2 fantasy tight end that can likely be had later than others of similar value.

Randy McMichael | St. Louis Rams

A legitimate starting fantasy tight end during his tenure with the Miami Dolphins, McMichael struggled to find his niche under former Rams offensive coordinator Greg Olson and finished the 2007 season with 39 catches for 429 yards and three scores. The yardage was the lowest output of his career, while the 39 receptions tied for his worst single-season effort. Injuries all around McMichael definitely played a role in his struggles, particularly the carousel at quarterback. However, while the health of quarterback Marc Bulger isn't to be underestimated, it's the hiring of offensive coordinator Al Saunders that has us excited about McMichael's 2008 prospects. Saunders has heavily utilized the tight end position during his last two stops, first with the Kansas City Chiefs (tight end Tony Gonzalez) and most recently with the Washington Redskins (tight end Chris Cooley). McMichael should be a great late-round reserve option and, eventually, a possible bargaining chip in 2008.

Place kicker

Jeff Reed | Pittsburgh Steelers

While Reed's name isn't likely to be mentioned when discussing top-tier fantasy kickers, the seventh-year veteran has quietly emerged as one of the league's steadier options. He has scored at least 100 points in all five of his full seasons in the NFL while making 40 or more extra points (without a miss) in each of the last four years. Reed knocked home 23 of his 25 field goal attempts in 2007, good for a career-high 92 percent. He also reached double figures in points six times last season after doing it only once in 2006. Kicking behind a quality offense that ought to afford him plenty of chances to score, Reed should make a solid kicker that can be had in the final round of most drafts.

Rob Bironas | Tennessee Titans

Following two seasons of knocking on the door of a 100-point campaign, Bironas blew the doors right off in 2007 with a 133-point performance to finish third among kickers and fourth overall in the NFL. His accuracy was outstanding: He went 35-for-39 (leading the NFL in both categories) overall, including 4-for-5 from 50-plus yards. The 89.7 percent conversion rate represented a 10.4 percent jump from his previous career high and was fourth-best in the league among kickers that attempted more than 20 field goals. Granted, his 26-point effort in Week 7 skewed his totals a bit, and he did reach double figures just two other times during the season. However, he's currently not even being selected among the top 10 kickers in fantasy drafts and finds himself getting taken following the likes of Atlanta Falcons kicker Jason Elam (uh, he's not in Denver, with the Broncos, anymore). Bironas is a No. 1 kicker that should represent strong late-round value.

Robbie Gould | Chicago Bears

No kicker in the NFL has scored more points than Gould over his past two seasons. He has accounted for 269 points and converted 63 of his 72 field goal attempts during that time. Despite those lofty totals, Gould is getting minimal respect in polled drafts. Clearly concerns over the admittedly porous-looking Bears offense are scaring away prospective fantasy owners, but a reliable leg is a reliable leg. Plus, keep in mind the Bears have afforded Gould 33 field goal opportunities per year during his first three NFL seasons, and only once in that span (2006) did the team finish in the top half of the league in scoring. Gould's accuracy coupled with an offense that should still give him plenty of chances for field goals makes him a quality fantasy kicker and a better option than several being selected in front of him.

Defensive teams

Buffalo Bills

While you're unlikely to see the Bills land in too many top-10 rankings following a season in which they managed 26 sacks (29th in the NFL) while forcing 30 turnovers (11th), the team beefed up their defense considerably during the offseason. They acquired veteran defensive tackle Marcus Stroud from the Jacksonville Jaguars and signed linebacker Kawika Mitchell (New York Giants). They also get second-year linebacker Paul Posluszny (forearm) back after he missed most of the 2007 campaign, while the return of free safety Ko Simpson (ankle) aids the defensive backfield. The selection of cornerback Leodis McKelvin further bolsters an improving young secondary. Plus, cornerback Terrence McGee, wideout Roscoe Parrish and McKelvin form one of the NFL's best return units, which is a potential boost for fantasy teams. If you're the type of owner that is inclined to wait until the final round to select a defense, Buffalo's squad is worth rolling the dice on.

Seattle Seahawks

When it comes to fantasy defenses, the Seahawks rank among the premier units out there. They are coming off a fantastic 2007 season, finishing tied for sixth in scoring defense (17.6 points allowed per game), fourth in sacks (45) and fifth in turnovers (34). The team boasts a pair of stud pass rushers in defensive end Patrick Kerney (14.5 sacks) and linebacker Julian Peterson (9.5 sacks). Defensive end Darryl Tapp (seven sacks) isn't far off, and defensive end Lawrence Jackson, the 2008 28th overall pick, only adds to the depth of this devastating defensive front. Linebacker Lofa Tatupu (knee) made a ton of big plays in 2007 and cornerback Marcus Trufant (seven interceptions) is dynamic in pass coverage. Despite their talent and strong showing last season, the Seahawks aren't being selected among the top 12 defensive teams. They're even going undrafted in about half of all leagues. Don't overlook this group as they should be a great choice for owners that prefer to wait until the final round to draft a defense.

Dallas Cowboys

Overshadowed somewhat by their high-octane offense, Dallas' defense was tough on the run (94.6 yards per game - sixth in the NFL) and tougher on opposing quarterbacks (46 sacks - third) in 2007. Linebackers DeMarcus Ware (14 sacks) and Greg Ellis (12.5 sacks) led the charge. Where they struggled was in pass coverage, but the additions of cornerbacks Adam Jones and Mike Jenkins should help remedy that. Jones was a playmaker for the Tennessee Titans in 2006, scoring four touchdowns, and he should help Dallas improve on their middling 29 forced turnovers last year. He and tailback Felix Jones should also form one of the league's most dangerous return units. Even with upgrades that also include the signing of linebacker Zach Thomas, the Cowboys find themselves available late in most drafts. They should offer plenty of upside as a late-round alternative.

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Author Bio

Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.