Impact Analysis: Detroit Tigers Rotation

June 11, 2008 @ 13:15:39

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Richard Garcia

As if 2008 has not been enough of a disappointment already for the Detroit Tigers, one of the few stalwarts in their rotation, starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman, may have been lost for the season due to thoracic outlet compression syndrome. A quality fantasy starter in 2006, Bonderman slipped a bit in 2007, which made him a commodity largely in deep mixed and AL-only leagues this season. Now, both Tigers manager Jim Leyland and fantasy owners must scramble to replace the right-handed pitcher.

Prognosis not promising

The issues with Bonderman's pitching shoulder sprouted up Friday, June 6. The 25-year-old pitcher woke up four days after posting a quality start Sunday, June 1, with his right arm feeling "heavy," and he noticed swelling in his armpit. Seeing these signs was a cause for concern for Bonderman, who immediately had the condition operated on. He first underwent thrombolysis to break the clot Friday, June 6, and then had an angioplasty Saturday, June 7, at the Detroit Medical Center. The two procedures were to remove a blood clot in Bonderman's axillary vein, which runs from the neck to the armpit.

In addition to the two procedures Bonderman has already undergone, Detroit head trainer Kevin Rand suggested that Bonderman may need to get a rib removed to ensure another clot does not develop down the road. The argument for having the procedure is twofold, as it would help Bonderman's health, and according to fellow Tigers starting pitcher Kenny Rogers, increase Bonderman's velocity. (Rogers had the same procedure on his left side in 2001 and noted that he gained two, three or maybe four mph on his fastball after the surgery).

If a rib were to be removed, Bonderman would definitely be lost for the season. Even without the additional surgery, though, the hurler is likely lost for the year.

Detroit left scrambling

The injury comes at a bad time for the Tigers. Mired in a disappointing season where they spent heavily to lockup highly-touted third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis, Detroit is left looking for an option as their fifth starter.

While Bonderman's numbers have not been eye-popping - he has never posted an ERA below 4.08 and is coming off an 11-9 season with a 5.01 ERA - he has given the Tigers a consistent arm. Since 2003, Bonderman has started at least 28 games each season, and considering the inconsistency this year of starters Justin Verlander, Rogers and Nate Robertson, his presence was needed.

Adding to the void left by Bonderman is the demotion of Willis to Class A Lakeland Tuesday, June 10. Willis pitched just 1 1/3 innings in his second start since being activated from the DL Thursday, May 22, and allowed eight earned runs on five walks and three hits. Thus, the loss of Bonderman and Willis leaves two open spots in Detroit's rotation.

The first void is expected to be filled by rookie starter Armando Galarraga. Galarraga has put up impressive numbers this year, including a 5-2 record with a 3.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he has been more average of late, seeing his ERA rise from 1.88 to 3.70 in his last six appearances.

The next opening could go to a variety of candidates. Detroit has yet to name a fifth starter, but journeyman pitcher Casey Fossum, who has started 120 games in his career, and Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens starting pitchers Chris Lambert and Eddie Bonine remain possibilities. However, Leyland has indicated it is a strong possibility that Bonine would join the Tigers and could start Saturday, June 14. Bonine is scheduled to start for Toledo Thursday, June 12, but if he gets pulled from the start, it's likely due to him being promoted.

Perusing the wires

Looking outside of Detroit, plenty of options could be available on the waiver wire. Chicago Cubs starter Sean Gallagher (3-2, 4.42 ERA) has turned the corner of late, winning three of his last five starts while striking out 24 batters in 28 1/3 innings. Sticking in the NL Central, young Milwaukee Brewers starter Manny Parra has started living up to his hype. He has allowed one earned run or less in four of his last five starts, including seven innings of four-hit, one-run ball in his last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday, June 4.

In the American League, owners may be able to scoop up Baltimore Orioles starter Garrett Olson. Olson's WHIP (1.42) may be tough to stomach this year, but he is 5-1 and has struck out 32 batters in 44 1/3 innings with a 3.86 ERA. Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kevin Slowey may have been cut loose by a few managers after he allowed eight earned runs in three innings against the Chicago White Sox Sunday, June 8. However, prior to the loss, he had an ERA of 3.76. Slowey's 4.29-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is also worth noting.

Fantasy baseball outlook

If a fantasy owner invested an early-round pick on a Detroit starter in their draft, they are probably regretting it. The early season struggles for the back end of Leyland's staff may not end, either.

In the case of Galarraga, deep mixed leagues and AL-only owners should already own the young starter. While he may see his WHIP and ERA continue to rise slightly - in his past six games, he has posted a 4.98 ERA - he should rack up a few wins pitching behind a potent Tigers offense.

Fossum and Lambert are probably not viable fantasy options right now. Fossum has pitched just two innings in the majors this year and has allowed five earned runs; he sported a 7.70 ERA in 40 appearances with the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays last season. Bonine (9-2, 4.48 ERA) and Lambert (5-3, 3.38 ERA) meanwhile, have looked good in Triple-A. If Bonine is called up, AL-only owners should look to acquire him.

For Bonderman, it may be best to cut the starter in all non-keeper formats. Even if he were to recover from the procedures and return late in the year, his velocity has dipped this year, which has resulted in his strikeout rate taking a significant dip since he posted 202 strikeouts in 2006. As for Willis, cut him loose in all mixed leagues.

In keeper leagues, Bonderman may be a good sleeper candidate for 2009. As Rogers mentioned, removing the rib has the potential to add velocity to Bonderman's fastball, which could result in numbers close to what he posted two seasons ago.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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